November 02, 2004


From reader Seph:

A few of us Sydneysiders who happen to be on Karl Rove's payroll are having a get together at the Rocks on Wednesday night to celebrate or mourn the US election results. if anyone's interested in coming, email me.

I'll try to be there. My election prediction, by the way: narrow popular-vote win to Bush, biggish electoral college win to Bush. But he will need unearthly good fortune to overcome Teresa's Portuguese gypsy magic. US reader Julie has a plan:

I'm going to find me an Aussie, grab 'em, and rub their head for good luck.

Posted by Tim Blair at November 2, 2004 02:04 AM

Do you mean my little head Julie? Oh yeah. Yankee lovin'!

Posted by: Jamie at November 2, 2004 at 02:32 AM

geesh, best i can do is go to outback steakhouse and have a draft fosters...

Posted by: Mr. Bingley at November 2, 2004 at 03:00 AM

God, Mr Bingley. There's no reason to go to that length. Find a Cooper's Ale, at least.

Posted by: Bruce at November 2, 2004 at 03:27 AM

Can I rub Elle McPherson for good luck?

Posted by: Randal Robinson at November 2, 2004 at 03:28 AM

you're right, bruce; i'll stay at home and polish off some shiraz...

Posted by: Mr. Bingley at November 2, 2004 at 03:32 AM

Ah, The Rocks, many's the night I set out to tip a few there. After a few schooners of the new, I've always been puzzled about how I ever got back to my hotel!

Posted by: EddieP at November 2, 2004 at 03:54 AM

My election prediction is similar to yours. For details, go here.

Posted by: Tom at November 2, 2004 at 03:57 AM

I hate to be a party pooper, but I'm pretty certain Kerry will win tomorrow, and it won't be close. I don't think any number of Aussie totems, no matter how potent, is going to restore all the republican voters disenfranchised by democrat voter fraud. But I'll give it a try: I've got a case of obscure but really good Australian wine in the pantry that's overdue to be ravaged.

N.b. If I'm wrong, I'll eat my hat.

Posted by: Mike at November 2, 2004 at 03:59 AM


"N.b. If I'm wrong, I'll eat my hat."

No fair if it's one of those Nacho Hats like Homer gets at Isotope games. Real hat only.

Posted by: David Crawford at November 2, 2004 at 04:19 AM

If Ozzyless, okay Kiwi?

Posted by: ForNow at November 2, 2004 at 04:20 AM

Tim, I hope you're right. But I agree with Mike, I have feared a Kerry win for about a week now and the weekend trends did not seem to help. Ohio isn't looking good and even the Bush campaign was very down about Sunday's polling. If he loses Ohio, I'm not sure he wins enough elsewhere to make up for it.

I've also long believed there's a much larger hidden vote (that polls aren't picking up) for Kerry this year.

Call me pessimistic. I seriously hope I'm wrong (and my wife says I'm crazy), but that's my gut.

Posted by: Brett at November 2, 2004 at 04:21 AM

I, too, think voter fraud will cost Bush the election. My only hope is that the polls are underrepresenting Republicans because they're out working for a living instead of sitting home by the phone.

Posted by: Dave S. at November 2, 2004 at 04:37 AM

Osama bin Laden lives. I say Churchhill and FDR were right. Fight this murderer until he can hide no more. Never give in to tyranny. Fight him with the most powerful weapon you have, your vote. Vote Red State for Freedom.

Posted by: Volunteer State at November 2, 2004 at 04:40 AM

Fear not, fellow conservatives! I don't believe these last minute bulshit polls one bit. The Elite-Media is telling itself and it's base what it wants to hear, and the Republicans are playing along in order to ensure that Bush supporters all vote.
Sticking with prediction of 40 state landslide for Bush.

Posted by: spitfire9 at November 2, 2004 at 04:47 AM

Any bloke that would like to come over to New Jersey so I can rub him for good luck - please email me at once. There is no time like the present to rub...I mean for good luck.

Posted by: Kathleen A at November 2, 2004 at 04:56 AM


Posted by: mojo at November 2, 2004 at 05:22 AM

I hope Mike, Dave S and Brett are wrong.

Very wrong.

I'm not sure who to back. I thought Latham would win the Aussie election (wasn't sure though) and then the guy lost. So, should I back Kerry then?

Posted by: Quentin George at November 2, 2004 at 05:52 AM

I predict a Bush win, due to a low turnout from those Democrats who supported the war in Iraq.

Posted by: 2dogs at November 2, 2004 at 05:55 AM

Once again, as I mentioned, don't worry. No national poll has Kerry winning overall. ANd the sampling was 5% heavier on democrats with Bush still ahead. The only question is how big in EC. Ohio is going to keep everyone crazy, but it is a republican state and weekend polls are always going to underrepresent GOP. Watch NJ and Penn early. If Kerry wins NJ by 5% or less, it is real trouble for Kedwards. Both Ohio and Pa. are trending Bush. Now all a matter of turnout for GOP and fraud prevention in Pa. Last minute campaigning is going on in blue states - that tells you where the dems think it is - not favorable. If you are playing defense, and Kerry is, you are losing.

Posted by: JEM at November 2, 2004 at 06:22 AM

I'm obviously missing a bash (either way). 24 hours by air from Texas though, Arrgh! On the SHIRAZ 'election' front. Cheap and a double gold medal at SFO Int'l Wine Competition last April(945 vintners, 21 countries). Second gold for unanimous jury. Lindeman's Bin 50, '03. By the case it's on sale here for USD6. Now don't drink it all up guys. Save some fer us furriners.

Posted by: Gerry at November 2, 2004 at 06:25 AM

"No fair if it's one of those Nacho Hats like Homer gets at Isotope games. Real hat only."

Curses! Busted. OK, I'll grant Bush would win if the franchise were restricted to people eligible to vote, and if each eligible voter were limited to one pull of the lever. But livestock and dead people will be hitting the voting booths in record numbers tomorrow, and these constituencies have always reliably voted democrat.

Posted by: Mike at November 2, 2004 at 06:31 AM

Always a concern - I remember the Chicago cemataries voting early and often.

Thankfully, most provisional stuff has been taken care of via the courts. Ohio has a very aggressive Republican sec of state - nothing will get by if it is close. Pa. that is a problem, I will concede that. The prisons have been voting absentee - helped by the gov - and in violation of the law.

Posted by: JEM at November 2, 2004 at 06:38 AM

Be aware of split time-zones, in the last US election, the commentators forgot that Florida had differing polling booth closing times as such projected the wrong result based on an incomplete data.

Posted by: Paul at November 2, 2004 at 06:45 AM

My prediction: Bush 52%, Kerry 47%, Nader 1% of the popular vote nationwide. Bush wins 300+ electoral votes. Not a blowout, but a solid victory that even 16,000 Democrat attorneys cannot effectively challenge.

Wish I could be there at the Rocks. We can't get VB over here and I can't find anything quite like it. Sigh...

Posted by: Butch at November 2, 2004 at 07:27 AM

They have all been warned, but I wouldn't trust CBS to not "forget" about that. If I was the FCC chairman, I would pull their broadcast license and sell it to someone else.

Posted by: JEM at November 2, 2004 at 07:28 AM

Aye and because the Repub voters in the Panhandle thought Bush had won and it was a waste of time going to vote the majority was 527 when the pundits reckon it would have been more than 5000 odd had the Panhandlers not been fooled by the media...hmm. And don't forget the masses of military votes that were pushed out by the Dems lawyers...honestly these guys and girls are fighting for their country and the Dems want to deny them the right to vote? Says it all really. Bush by a landslide or I'll eat my kilt (made of the finest haggis and tattie cloth...)

Posted by: dave t at November 2, 2004 at 07:31 AM

Dave T - the new Fund book "Stealing Elections" puts the lost FL panhandle votes much higher than that (although most of the MSM prematurely announced that Gore had won, not Bush). So when I hear the liberal MSM touting Kerry and his lead in (some) polls, I try to keep that in mind.

The wife and I are working as poll watchers tomorrow to do what we can to prevent fraud.

Posted by: Brett at November 2, 2004 at 07:38 AM

In 2000 a then-obscure state official, Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris, sent letters to all the broadcast networks reminding them that Florida votes in two time zones, and that the polls don't close statewide until 9 PM Eastern Standard Time. Every single network, Fox included, announced at 8 PM EST that the polls in Florida were closed. Minutes later they were calling the national election.

I hope Katherine Harris wins by a landslide.

Posted by: Butch at November 2, 2004 at 07:39 AM

ABC radio news reports this morning, surprisingly for the ABC, that US polling is 'within the margin of error'. They didn't used to do this until fairly recently.

Posted by: walterplinge at November 2, 2004 at 07:50 AM


Katherine Harris' sin is that, on top of being a Repub, her make-up is poorly applied. The networks shouldn't be expected to take her memos seriously.

Posted by: susan estrich at November 2, 2004 at 08:17 AM

Yes, Susan, her makeup was pretty awful, but can one suppose that the networks had been aware of that, er, issue before election night?

Throughout, she kept her sense of humor, even after having been excoriated by the all-important Style section of the Washington Post.

Posted by: Butch at November 2, 2004 at 08:29 AM

OK, Butch, I concede Harris' make-up must be working well-enough not to melt under that scrutiny, so, by all means, let Florida elect her.

But does this mean that Edwards doesn't get your vote, even though his hair is luscious? Do outstanding cosmetic flourishes mean nothing to you, sir?

Posted by: susan e. at November 2, 2004 at 08:41 AM

OSAMA d e a d- d e a d -d e ad -stone cold plasma dead.
The people who can reach Mars must have enough brains NOT to vote for Kerry-

Posted by: Rose at November 2, 2004 at 09:07 AM

Mr. Bingley,
listen to Bruce. The Foster's that's served in the U.S. is brewed in Canada and tastes like goat piss.

Posted by: alfadog at November 2, 2004 at 09:11 AM

Yes, Susan, it's undeniably true that both Senators have fabulous hair. God knows, they work at it.

However, in an objective, disinterested, and utterly uninterested(!) way, I must declare that I prefer Dick Cheney's highly cultivated chrome-dome look to long, floppy bangs, and those skyscraping bouffants that were so carefully designed and executed by structural engineers.

Cheers, Butch

Posted by: Butch at November 2, 2004 at 09:13 AM

I'm predicting that Kerry's media assisted popularity will prove as durable as Howard Dean's in Iowa...

Posted by: Wind Rider at November 2, 2004 at 09:54 AM

Since someone brought up Katherine Harris and I live in the nearest TV market to her district, thought I'd mention that her campaign ads are a thing of beauty. Sure they're negative, but they are just so over the top I never change the channel when they come on. In the course of 30 seconds she can call her opponent a "liberal lobbyist" throw up a picture of the opponent and Hillary Clinton that is truly awful, and claim that her opponent is attacking her "for doing her job protecting storm victims." It's inspiring.

Fear not my conservative friends. They told me brother Jeb was just barely outside of the margin of error in 2002 and he won in a landslide. But like that old saying, "Trust in God, but lock your car," get your fellow Republicans and "discerning Democrats" out to the polls tomorrow! Lets pull a repeat of Australia!

Posted by: FLAUSA at November 2, 2004 at 10:12 AM

Butch, you'll be happy to know that structural engineers failed to account for hot air updraft load, and our ticket's bouffants might deflate by late tomorrow under the stress of the election. Pity for my party of the beautiful people. Secretly, though, I do agree that Cheney is darling.

Posted by: susan e. at November 2, 2004 at 10:15 AM

I too beleive that Bush will win. He'll win the popular vote by a small (but not VERY small) margin, and he'll win the Electoral College votes by at least 30.

Basically I think it will be somewhat like the Australian election result: a challenger who's very popular with the media; an incumbent whom the ingelligensia and celebrities loathe; most of the media saying that it's "too close to call"; but on the night, it turns out to be a more convincing win to GWB than any of the polls had predicted.

Posted by: Richard at November 2, 2004 at 10:29 AM

I am currently seizing on the Aussie magic by eating Tim Tams, Vegemite on toast, and Milo bars. As you can see I'm going all out for a win for GWB. Please someone in Australia drink several VB's for me.

Posted by: swassociates at November 2, 2004 at 10:46 AM

If there is a last minute swing towards status quo, GWB will get over the line. In a sense, it will be a good election to lose. GWB's presidency will unravel: Iraq, record deficit with tax cuts yet to cut in, nuclear development in Iran, N Korea, the US being suckered by the duplicitous Musharraf and Sharon. Retirees and those without health insurance will feel the pinch. The draft will return. And lots of other goodies.

I'll be in Boston again in March, belatedly celebrating the end of the Curse and hopefully raising a glass to the Pats.


Posted by: john b at November 2, 2004 at 10:58 AM

Don't worry Merrikuns. The polls here in Oz had it close but as each day passes Howard's triumph becomes more complete. Anyway consider this: Media profits from close race; pollsters profit from media; pollsters give client what it wants. And right, who's sitting around waiting for a pollster to ring? More than likely some sad slacker who'll tell you what they think you want to hear. Very scientific.

Posted by: slatts at November 2, 2004 at 11:20 AM

john b:

Welcome! Whatever strange parallel universe you come from, welcome!

Posted by: Pixy Misa at November 2, 2004 at 11:27 AM

Anyone know of any good election night parties in Atlanta, GA, that would welcome a recently arrived republican-leaning Australian?

let me know .... ;-)

Posted by: Gavin at November 2, 2004 at 11:44 AM

swassociates writes:

Please someone in Australia drink several VB's for me.

Consider it done, mate! :-)

And as long as GWB in re-elected, I'm happy to drink some Australian booze on behalf of all of you Yanks - to celebrate another triumph of the dark forces of the brutal right-wing world conspiracy, as well as help drown the sorrows (and kill of the remaining few brain cells) of the loonie Left.

Cheers! :-)


Posted by: JPB at November 2, 2004 at 12:08 PM

Sorry, John B,

Only a military illiterate and a DNC scaremonger would say the draft will return under Bush. Maybe under Kerry a draft would be re-instated and then half of our military resign on account of it. But only then.

Posted by: insider at November 2, 2004 at 12:10 PM

I'm going to make a bold prediction here: Bush will take California and/or New York State. These states have voted republican in state and city elections (Arnie, Rudy, Pataki and Bloomberg), and in the privacy of the voting booth, it's okay for people to actually like the idea that Bush went out, kicked arses, hunted down, killed and took down the bad guys. That doesn't go down well at dinner parties, but who the fuck knows in the voting booth. And if Bush takes California and/or New Yord State, who gives a rat's arse about Florida and Ohio?

Posted by: steve at November 2, 2004 at 12:20 PM

I've got a bottle of Wolf Blass Shiraz in the basement; I guess I'll crack it open tomorrow, for luck, since there aren't any live Ozzies around here that I know of whose heads are available for rubbing.

What I'm going to do now, though, is turn off the computer - get my husband to disconnect the DSL so that for the next 36 hours I will not be able to sit here, obsessively checking returns. Tomorrow (Nov 2) I will vote early, go to Mass (All Souls Day) run errands during the day, go to a dance class in the evening and then go HOME TO BED without taking any phone calls or turning on the radio. My nerves are shot already - I can't wait for this to be over.

OK, into my hidey-hole until further notice. Goodnight, all. Jem and Butch, I hope you're right and the news at the other end of the tunnel will be all we want it to be.

Posted by: Annalucia at November 2, 2004 at 12:28 PM

And to try and put final on the draft urban legend....

John B, Congress has to authorize the draft. Not President Bush. Or President Kerry (ack! ptui!) for that matter.

Now, look at the recent House vote on the draft vote -- 400+ against, 2 for. Even that loon who sponsored the original bill (Representative Rangel) voted against it.

The Selective Service exists simply to speed up the draft, if authorized. And that's it. It's not a magic button that the Presient can push at will.

Thank you.

Posted by: The Real JeffS at November 2, 2004 at 01:59 PM

Ah, thank goodness for that tim. Latham to win, Osama dead ... have you ever got a prediction right tim?

Posted by: cs at November 2, 2004 at 02:21 PM

Nighty-night, Annalucia. Don't you worry about a thing. We'll take care of everything while you're gone, and when you return, it will all seem like a bad dream that came to one very happy ending.

Posted by: Butch at November 2, 2004 at 02:37 PM

I'll have a VB for all of you Americans tonight. Here's hoping that your country has the same overwhelming support for your encumbent as we had for ours. Cheers!

Posted by: Lofty at November 2, 2004 at 02:52 PM

I'll be at The Rocks, hopefully others can make it.

Posted by: Leigh at November 2, 2004 at 04:09 PM

Have I ever got a prediction right, cs? Yes, one or two. By the way, do you still think Wesley Clark can win?

Posted by: tim at November 2, 2004 at 04:15 PM

Incidentally, cs, you should probably update that post about Hitchens backing Kerry.

Posted by: tim at November 2, 2004 at 04:18 PM

I stayed up until 4:30 AM US West Coast time, rooting for a Howard victory a few weeks back.

Wish us luck, Australia.

Posted by: Mr. Bill at November 2, 2004 at 04:32 PM

You got it, Mr. Bill!

Posted by: tim at November 2, 2004 at 04:33 PM

Has Hitch confirmed? I thought your story was just a report of an email to a friend? Who knows who Hitch has endorsed? Incidentally, I saw The Australian today has him as The Nation's Hitch, and one of the "Democrat supporters who plan to vote for Dubya". Has Hitch rejoined The Nation and taken out US citizenship? Not happy Tom.

Posted by: cs at November 2, 2004 at 04:44 PM

I think I'll be collecting on our bet after Kerry wins with 300+ EV.

Posted by: Tim Lambert at November 2, 2004 at 04:54 PM

He's confirmed that he's not supporting Kerry. TL -- I know we had a bet, but what the hell was it? You sure it was US and not Australian election? And why did you spike my lemonade?

Posted by: tim at November 2, 2004 at 05:36 PM

TL -- just checked email. $50 it is!

Posted by: tim at November 2, 2004 at 05:47 PM

Mr. Bingley,
listen to Bruce. The Foster's that's served in the U.S. is brewed in Canada and tastes like goat piss.

blame canada! blame canada!
for that piss-like foster's brew
and how they fucked up kirin too
blame canada! blame canada!

Posted by: Mr. Bingley at November 2, 2004 at 10:46 PM

I have a bottle of 1995 Penfolds Grange. Saving for a special occasion. This just might be it. I just might pull the cork to celebrate the election of GWB.

Posted by: swassociates at November 3, 2004 at 09:16 AM