October 29, 2004
Mark Steyn puts his job on the line:
Next Tuesday the President will win the states he won last time, plus Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico and Maine’s Second Congressional District to put him up to 301 electoral votes. Minnesota? Why not? Nudge him up to 311 electoral votes. Oh, and what the hell, give him Hawaii: that’s 315 ...
Usually after making wild predictions I confidently toss my job on the line and say, if they don’t pan out, I’m outta here. I’ve done that a couple of times this campaign season — over Wes Clark (remember him?) — but it almost goes without saying in these circumstances. Were America to elect John Kerry president, it would be seen around the world as a repudiation not just of Bush and of Iraq but of the broader war. It would be a declaration by the people of American unexceptionalism — that they are a slightly butcher Belgium; they would be signing on to the wisdom of conventional transnationalism. Having failed to read correctly the mood of my own backyard, I could hardly continue to pass myself off as a plausible interpreter of the great geopolitical forces at play.
The good news for US-based conservatives is that, in the case of a Bush defeat, they now have a "Canada option" such as is often cited by US liberals. If Kerry wins, move to Australia! Conservatives control both our houses of Parliament, and even the Labor Party is slowly realising that, hey, maybe opposing the war wasn't such a good idea after all:
Labor is reviewing its call for Australian troops to be brought home from Iraq by Christmas, as it starts the painful process of rebuilding after its fourth election loss in a row.
UPDATE. Partners forever:
Posted by Tim Blair at October 29, 2004 01:32 PM
Accused terrorist Abu Bakar Bashir has told an Indonesian court to be wary of interference from the "two enemies of God", Australia and the US.
The wife and I have been asking, "Where will we go if Kerry wins?" Now I know, thanks.
I don't care if Nader gets elected; I will never leave America. And neither will any other conservative, I'd wager. That's the difference between us and the Alec Baldwins of the world. Except it isn't really a difference, since he refuses to actually leave...
I think what Steyn is really saying is, if you think the Democrats are insufferable in defeat, just wait until you see them in victory.
We need some Australian magic. I'm going to find me an aussie, grab 'em, and rub their head for good luck.
Brian Jones: I don't think Steyn believes we'll see the Dems victorious.
All the same, it takes some brass balls to put your job on the line like that. It's also refreshing to hear a pundit say "Hey, if I'm wrong, I've seriously misread things and therefore I shouldn't be a pundit." If Steyn is right - and I think he is - how many liberal columnists will throw in the towel? There are plenty of yammering jackasses who still refuse to admit they were wrong about the U.S.S.R., for Chrissakes.
I'm with The Sanity Inspector. I love America and, unlike the liberals, will not leave her if I don't get my way in an election. But I will grieve for Americans. If Kerry wins, I will truly think something vital has left the American spirit.
Were not going anywhere. We still have the house and the senate and 35 state governments.
If Kerry wins, hes won a 4 year no stop trip on the big red spanking machine.
I am sure a working holiday would be most enjoyable for Mark in Australia...... except to the Canberra press corp who I am sure will erupt at the thought.
I think that Mark has underestimated the win by George Bush......I am looking for a double digit win.........
Plus 15 in the House and plus 5 in the Senate.
I agree with Steyn's take on the American psyche.If Kerry wins it will be inconceivable.It will mean a lot of what I thought American's were all about was wrong.I can't imagine them doing a Spain and dogging it. I think/hope it will be like our Australian election where we kept hearing how close it was going to be.It ended up being just the media talking to themselves. Bush to win well.
All day, the leftoid jerks I work with have been poncing about saying Kerry will win, his poll numbers are surging, he's not a moron like Bush etc., etc., barf, barf, spew, chunder, gag...
So at 4:00 p.m. I went down to the cash machine, withdrew $500 and sent out an office-wide email: Anyone want to put money where your mouth is?
So far no takers, which tells me a lot more than the polls.
Like their hero, they're a gutless, dribble-dick, pussy-whipped, sons of bitches, every single one.
This election is going to be VERY close.
It was Mark Steyn who lulled me into a false sense of security last time round when he confidently predicted, in the Spectator, that Bush would win by a landslide. I think he promised not merely to resign but to commit suicide live on the internet if Gore won.
Well, there is the possibility that if Bush is re-elected, CBS News will relocate their operations to Toronto (or if Dan Rather really gets into a froth, the network will just declare Kerry the winner anyway and then inaugurate him on the east side of the Capitol on Jan. 20, while everyone else is watching Bush being sworn in on the west side).
Only a complete moron would take up your silly election bet.
Centrebet is currently offering $2.10 on Kerry to win, why would anyone take your (I assume) $2.00 offer?
Offering lower odds than the bookies is not a valid way to determine if people are " gutless, dribble-dick, pussy-whipped, sons of bitches". It's a way of determining if they are dribbling morons but apparently they aren't since they haven't taken the crap odds on offer.
I read Steyn's article with growing confidence that the US will make the right choice, retain Bush as president and keep up the fight against Islamic fascism for all of our sakes.
Let's face it, if not the US then who ... France, Germany, Russia ...???
At the thought of the US dropping off the pace with weak wobbly Kerry at the helm and `old Europeans’ like France or God forbid the duplicitous UN given a leadership role over our coalition of the willing (sorry coerced and bribed), I look up at a photo on my office wall of a younger (slimmer) me, in greens atop an APC with a trusty SLR to hand and with a rush of short lived boyish blood, feel a compelling urge to re-enlist.
Sadly it can only ever be a brief `rush of blood’ as age has wearied me and these days I couldn't bend far enough to get into a bloody APC let alone climb through the cargo hatch and balance on the engine cover whilst `wild riding' across desert dunes.
I fear that without the US continuing resolutely as it has following September 11 and the declaration of war on our civilisation by Islam’s murderous spokesmen we will slowly lose ground with every nuanced Kerry concession until we are overwhelmed and our way of life and freedoms destroyed.
The only contender for leadership in the US that has shown the balls and strength of his convictions to push on and finish the job is George W Bush he must be re-elected
To echo earlier posters – if Kerry wins Steyn and his fellow travellers are welcome to travel to fortress Australia – for we will need them to `man’ our barricades!
I'm in the States, where it's illegal to bet on elections. And the people I work with, when it comes to politics, really are morons.
By the way, none of them will offer me odds that Bush gets more than 300 EC votes.
Sam, I didn't see anything about odds in Superboot's post. As for relocating to Oz, not unless I could bring my guns with me! (And even then, not permanently...)
You aussies are great, but you gotta fix the gun grabber laws before I'd consider coming down permanently.
When someone says "I'll bet you $X that so-and-so wins" they mean even money. At least every single person I know does.
Since the "gun grabber" laws were created by Howard, the guy who just won both houses of parliament, the chances of that changing are pretty slim.
Not allowing legal betting on election seems silly. Aren't you guys meant to be the "Land of the Free"? It's a much better way of predicting outcomes than polling, and hence benefits society even :)
Steyn is right about the electoral vote. Bush seems poised to gather about 51 percent of the two-party popular vote, which should give him more than 300 electoral votes. See here and here.
Awww...jeez! fella's...let me tell you about my poll. I,m negotiating to buy a co. worth 2 mil. at a one mil. tag. My USMC sticker got me a non-ticket (80-88). My house cleaners mom made me diner. My spa was at a perfect 103 degrees as an allmost full moon lifted itself above the 11th green. My former first lady will be visiting this weekend bearing untold appologies and guilt (she is bringing her sister....to be part of the negotiations.....ahhemm!). My pet licked my toe (after I fed it) It rained today...in Phoenix!! I won 6 dollars in lottery. The IRS sent me an appology letter (with check)
My poll rock's!!
bloody Fn'Kerry wanka's
Bush by 14 without a doubt.
That's a very generous offer, Tim. American conservatives have always wondered whether we have a "Canada option." Now we know we do.
Unfortunately, I'm afraid I'll have to decline. We'll be fighting Kerry with our majorities in Congress.
Donna V said: "If Kerry wins, I will truly think something vital has left the American spirit."
Donna, maybe some vital ingredient may vanish that makes your nation stand out just that much more than others, but as an individual, no you're wrong.
You, all of you, are the inheritors of a collective group of values, beliefs and traditions that go back hundreds of years. It is a spirit, a pioneer spirit, that though the frontier closed in the 1890s, has grabbed hold of you and will not easily be shrugged off.
The principles of fairness, honesty, decency, faith, stamina and spirit, are aspects you cannot laugh off. They are you, just as they were your forebears. Times may have changed and some may be swayed by alternatives, but not those that know what is right.
We all have times when anguish and fear of failure come to the surface. It is in these moments, that you draw on that spirit within you and plunge forward into the whirlwind. And the most thankful aspect when such an event unfolds is knowing that you are not alone.
Good luck to all of you.
You can command my track any day!
If Bush loses I will be sad and slightly bemused.
If Mark Steyn stops writing I will be distraught, inconsolable and probably get a lot more work done.
I didn't see police or firefighters fleeing New York when the towers were hit.
Similarly, if fuckface wins the election you guys are going to be needed there more than ever.
As much as we would like to have you over here in Oz, we need you over there (we don't want the average IQ of the US citizenry to sink to danger levels....)
good luck, seppos !! ;-)
If Latham had won, would Australia have been any different? I think not. OK, I'm also very glad we didn't have to find out.
If Kerry wins the US elections, it will be but a minor setback, in the "big picture". Perhaps a few US cities lost, a few million dead, at worst - something that may happen under Bush too. It will delay the end of the war, not its final outcome.
Out of curiousity, why is labor even looking at its 'troops home by xmas' pledge? It is going to be at least 6 christmas' before they are conceivably in a position to even decide that...
I won't leave, either. It's still America, even if Senator Kerry is screwing it over, a la' Jimmah Cartuh.
Well, the Aussie punters are with you guys on this - going by their very accurate prediction of the Australian election result, my guess is Steyn will not be resigning any time soon!
From The Australian:.
"WHEN it comes to punting on the United States election, the big money in Australia is on George W. Bush.
"Online bookmaker Centrebet said after its $1.9 million turnover on the Australian election, mainly local punters had now broken through the $500,000 barrier on the November 2 US poll.
"The biggest bets so far had come from Australian punters, Centrebet said, with two of $50,000 and another of $30,000 – all on Mr Bush.
"Mr Bush was at $1.45 and Democrat challenger John Kerry $2.50, the bookie said today.
"Centrebet said unlike most elections it was finding the US poll hard to predict because little money was being wagered by Americans, who were not familiar with the online agency."
Latest odds at www.betfair.com
It was even money at 10am today.
Thanks for the offer, but I like my guns! ;-) OK, I suppose I could live without 'em if I could still keep my motorcycle. But as much as I love Oz, my country is home.
And thanks to Lofty and Johnny and others for the too-kind words. Brought a tear to this seppo's eyes, it did.
I think Kerry is going to take this one. Democrats are masters of election fraud, and the MSM juggernaut is in overdrive. And when people like Sullivan and Reynolds are either endorsing Kerry or wobbling, that ain't good (what's up with that? It's like moving in with a syphilitic crack whore because your wife put on thirty pounds and got a little nutty with the credit card.)
Bright side - a Republican Congress will obstruct him, so maybe we'll wind up with the tax cuts we have PLUS spending reductions (I can dream, no?) Also, the Hildebeest is shuffled aside for eight more years.
Down side (among many) - Jimmy Carter Part Deux. How anybody who lived through it the first time could vote for it again boggles the mind.
Steyn had better not keep his word.
If Bush loses, we have four years of Thereza. Can there be any better a consolation prize then that?
Heck, I live in NYC, so some pretty serious stuff is on the line for me. But I didn't leave in 2001, and I'm not leaving now, even if Kerry is President.
If that happens, I expect to be rather involved in mayoral elections next year, and the congressional elections the year after that. Oh, and the Repubs in Congress will be hearing a lot from me... and maybe some of the sane Dems, if they haven't purged them all from the party.
Perhaps Rudy vs. Hillary for Senate in 2006? That would be so sweet. We were denied last time, but I think he's ready for it now.
Labor is reviewing its call for Australian troops to be brought home from Iraq by Christmas, as it starts the painful process of rebuilding after its fourth election loss in a row.
Well, they'd better revise it before Christmas. I mean, if they were to advocate pulling out troops by yesterday, they'd be stealing policies from the Greens.
And when people like Sullivan and Reynolds are either endorsing Kerry or wobbling
Well, Glenn Reynolds has said he's voting for Bush. (Actually he already has voted...) Were you thinking of Chris Hitchens?
Sullivan...the less said, the better.
Tell me about it. Made a killing out of arb betting today. :)
I don't want to be rude, but I don't think I'll move to Australia.
First, I can't bring my guns.
Second, I don't think Australia would be any safer than the US with a Kerry presidency. You people are part of the Coalition of the Bribed and Coerced. (Which is it, bribed or coerced? Just curious). He's comparing Iraq to the Bay of Pigs and we all remember how that turned out.
Second and a half, since he's called Iraq a defeat it will embolden our enemies and, nothing personal, but you are a lot closer to the Islamo-wackos than we are.
Third, I want to sit around and carp while offering absolutely no solutions. It looks like fun.
My suggestion is for Australia's conservatives come to the US. At least here you can defend yourselves when the Islamo-wackos do show up.
Why would I leave the US just because Kerry won? Heck, I've lived in Florida my whole life (note to Steve at the pub whom I've banned: that's a state in the southernmost part of the US. Our major products are oranges, alligators, and hurricanes), and I'm used to government as comedy show.
Thanks for the invite, mate. But if Kerry wins, somebody has to stick around to pick up the pieces. This half-breed Scots-Irish Jacksonian ain't goin' nowhere.
As for Steyn, if he sticks to his pledge, I think he's a goner. I think Kerry is going to win because otherwise stalwart American centrist Democrats have been duped into a state of ignorance by the lies of the Democratic leadership and the propaganda of the DNC controlled media.
If Kerry wins, the MSM will go into full-fledged Walter Duranty mode to cover for him. But they will fail. America will bear the full brunt of Kerry's treasonous anti-Americanism for the first time. A Kerry administration will be a national tragedy and the MSM won't be able to hide that. And after having shoved him down hour throats, they won't have any credibility going into the next election cycle.
John Kerry will be the most profoundly flawed man to ever attain the Presidency. He combines the corruption of Richard Nixon, the pacifism of Jimmy Carter and the socialist anti-Americanism of Alger Hiss. He will enter office even more politically crippled than LBJ. He will face a bitter Repubican controlled Congress after having run the most disgraceful campaign in modern history.
So looking into my crystal ball, here is what I see. John Kerry will lose the popular vote, but win the electoral college. His administration will be a disaster. By 2002, the entire nation will see him for the treasonous fucking bastard he is. By the next election, the Democrats will be finished as a governing party. Republicans will dominate the House of Reps and will gain a fillibuster proof 60+ seat majority in the Senate. And if Kerry isn't impeached, he will be thrown out of office in 2004 as the most hated man in American history since Benedict Arnold.
And Mark Steyn will go into the maple syrup business for the next four years.
I already live in Kerryland, the American Northeast, among the most parasitic bunch of assholes in the entire country if you subtract huge parts of California. These people wouldn't raise a soft palm to save themselves from anything. They let people like me and mine to do it while growing all soft and lachrymose over some goddamm sea creature or mangy woodland beast.
And this is what this election is about. All the prattling about health care, the enviro and the rest of the mindless shit these people use as a substitute for reality are pointless if we won't defend ourselves from the thing metastasizing abroad.
Believe me, HA, no one knows like I do that Kerry is a "treasonous fucking bastard", because I and the people I hang with were sold out by him and his kind long, long ago.
The urge to fantasize along with Kerry and the awful human beings who support him is abroad in the US, and it may be something in the post-modern mind (in ALL classes of people)that tends to suicide.
I'm not hopeful in the long term, and feel that the charnel house at the end of Democratic thinking is a real possibility. Some of the things I imagine as a means to prevent it are unhealthy and destructive. If they succeed in corrupting our elections here, other measures will be necessary sometime down the road. I hope that the process of exposure that you see is the outcome and not something worse.
``It was Mark Steyn who lulled me into a false sense of security last time round when he confidently predicted, in the Spectator, that Bush would win by a landslide.''
Don't blame Mark; his prediction would have been correct if it had only applied to clean votes - that is, only living, properly registered voters who cast one vote each. In places like Chicago, of course, you have to contend with dead voters, multiple voters, illegal voters. And it's going to be worse this time around because the Democrats really, really hate nasssty George Bushes and they wantssss this election, yes precioussssss...
You folks in Australia, spare a prayer for us, OK?
By 2002, the entire nation will see him for the treasonous fucking bastard he is. By the next election, the Democrats will be finished as a governing party. Republicans will dominate the House of Reps and will gain a fillibuster proof 60+ seat majority in the Senate. And if Kerry isn't impeached, he will be thrown out of office in 2004 as the most hated man in American history since Benedict Arnold.
Last I checked the US was around 12-16 hours behind us aussies, not 4 years...
Re: Alan E.
Unfortunately I think your:
"If Kerry wins the US elections, it will be but a minor setback, in the "big picture". "
is wrong. I think that the odds of a nuclear exchange in the next 5 years is dramatically increased. I'm not saying that the US will be involved, but:
India v. Pakistan?
China v. Taiwan?
Iran v. Israel?
Israel v. ?
A strong USA is vital as a storm anchor on the international scene. If Kerry surrenders control to the UN, there is nowhere for threatened states to turn for help. There is no strength behind the "moderates" in the mid-east.
How long do you think Mushareff will last with Kerry in the WH? How about Karzai? I fully expect Kerry to abdicate on Afghanistan to the EU who will then be as fully effective as they were in Bosnia.
How bold will China get toward Taiwan when Kerry abdicates to the French, China's weapons broker?
No, I'm afraid the big picture will get really lousy if JFK is elected.
Ooops. Please substitute 2006 and 2008 as appropriate in my above rant.
I would really hate to see Steyn stop writing but I think there is a very good chance Kerry will take it out. Bush's price on tradesports.com has fallen to around 52 during this week and whenever I go to electoral-vote.com Kerry is winning.
In a fair election, President Bush would win comfortably. This election will not be fought fairly.
The Democrat Machine has been planning on taking this election, with or without the votes, for the last three and a half years.
Even with blatant evidence of fraud, the MSM will provide the cover necessary, and even catagorize conservative protestations as something only slightly less than, "Republican machinations to effect the outcome of an election."
I have a bad feeling.
That feeling is tempered somewhat by the likely strengthening of the Republican controlled Congress for a generation, should Senator Kerry "win". A Kerry "win", would also derail the aspirations of Hilary.
This is the rub, The Clintons still control the Democrat Party, largely by their fund-raising ability and sheer star-power. Will they really let Senator Kerry "win"?
Hilary's vision, is to descend from the mountain and condition us cattle into an equitable society. This will not happen if Senator Kerry "wins".
Not all Democrats are united on Hilary's destiny, and they will take whatever they can get, in the here and now, where the executive office is concerned.
Im voting for President Bush, but I have a bad feeling.
I was alarmed by Mark Steyn's prediction. He's a great writer and I enjoy him very much, but he was so astonishingly wrong in his predictions about the Canadian elections (with actuals in parentheses):
Conservatives 131 (99)
Liberals 108 (135)
Bloc 53 (54)
NDP 15 (19)
Independent 1 (1)
Mark Steyn should not bet his paycheck on his ability to predict elections. Somebody keep him away from Vegas and Wall Street.
The only silver lining possible in case of a Kerry win is that we probably wouldn't have to deal with Hitlary in'08
Halliburton Halliburton Halliburton,
Kerry is in trouble - everyone settle down. He is losing in Hawaii for goodness sakes. Bush is campaigning in Kerry strongholds in battle ground states - he is going after democrat votes in Kerry strongholds. Kerry is still trying to shore up his base. Just look where they are campaigning folks. The Jewish vote might come close to 50/50 and the black vote is not coming home strong to Kerry at all. The provisional ballot attempt by dems to steal the election has been shot down everywhere they tried it. Daschle is losing in South Dakota.
Bush realizes he needs to campaign hard through the election - he eased up last time. For those who thought this will be a majority win but loss for Bush in the Electoral College, realize that earlier they were talking about Bush winning with a minority of votes again. How do you pick up votes and lose in the EC, if you were picked to win EC with minority number of votes before?
Just go vote - and if a dem activist tries to stop you - as they have tried in Florida - just punch them in the face and keep right on walking.
Get rid of some of your restrictive guns laws, I would consider that option...
I can't help feeling that somebody, somewhere has a grip on Johnny boy's gonads tight enough to produce some serious geeking, pretty much on request. The guy is such an empty mask behind his feel-good rhetoric, god knows what we'd end up with. Another Jimmy Carter-esque weathervane administration at this point in time would be an unmitigated disaster, and not just for the US.
I enjoy Steyn's writing, but he's a partisan cheerleader 24/7. Alot like Hewitt.
I've already cast my vote for Bush and have signed up to be a poll watcher. But I have a sinking feeling about this one, to be honest.
For those who believe the silver lining in a Kerry win would be the crushing of Hillary's White House dreams, how will you handle it when she ends up on the SCOTUS bench?
Biden as Sec. of State and Holbrooke as "special Middle East peace coordinator"? Ugh.
Would all you Australians do me a little-bitty, itsy-bitsy, teeny-weeny favor? Would you just send one of those silly little absentee ballot thingys to Ohio/Pennsylvania/New Jersey/Wisconsin/Florida with a distinct mark next to "George W Bush and Richard Cheney," post haste. I know, I know, you're not US citizens and you can't vote in US elections, but this year everyone's doing it.
So get with the program, you Aussies. America needs you now.
Oh, I forgot to add: if you don't vote early and vote often for Bush, you might end up with millions of Americans Down Under.
Just imagine trying to get a good table at any decent restaurant! Think of the traffic snarls! Expect even more ridiculously inflated housing prices!
Exercise your right as Citizens of the World to vote! And make it snappy, please.
Well...I probably wont move even if Kerry wins...but will tought it out, since we will still have a republican congress (with any luck)...but I like Australia (have been there) and agree that it is an option if things get worse.
[Post deleted by The Management.]
"Bush's Lead Crumbles; Race Tied" How do I know? Reuters ,told me, that's how. Time for Plan B.
Would anyone in Melbourne know of a nice little house in, say, Prahran or St. Kilda, with an enclosed back yard for my Siberian Husky, Howie, and a locking attic for my crazy aunt Harriet? Something in the $2-3 million range would be fine.
Of course, it's not too late for you Australians to take charge of the situation and stop the disaster that would be the invasion of millions of desperate refugee Americans into an unsuspecting Australia.
First, have you ever seen an American eat? We have these All-You-Can-Eat things that are really All-You-Could-Possibly-Manage-To-Shove-Down-Your-Gullet pig-fests. One of our airlines even charges Passengers of Size™ two fares when they can't fit in their seats. We Americans have perfected the art of the Fork-and-Pork™, so we would probably eat all your food.
Second, most of us can't drive on the left, try as we might. It could get ugly.
Third, we'll bid up the price of everything. (E.g., my housing requirements above)
Happily, there's still time for you Aussies to avert an international tragedy. Preserve your pearler of a nation! Vote for Bush!
Fred: I have deleted your entire post. Can you guess why?
Probably not. Here's why:
1. You posted an entire, or what looked to be an entire, long article that someone else wrote. That is a) a copyright violation, and b) an egregious misuse of a comment thread on a forum not your own.
2. The reason why I couldn't tell which was the article and which was (if anything) your original content was the fact that you had not used any sort of formatting to demark the areas where other-written text ended and yours began. I have repeatedly warned people here not to do that. For one thing, it's confusing, and causes all sorts of misunderstandings. If you have absolutely no idea how to do html formatting then use bloody quotation marks. You do know how to do that, at least?
Now see, if you worked on your comment for hours and hours, all that work has been for nothing. Happy?
Butch: Australians can't vote in our elections.
"Australians can't vote in our elections"
Perhaps they could try writing to voters in one county in aswing state and.........
Andrea, I'm being facetious and sadly ironic. Even though non-Americans can't vote in our elections, the Guardian says their readers ought to have a vote; plenty of illegals are indeed voting; one registrar of voters is herself an illegal; thousands of New York residents are voting in Florida; and armies of lawyers are lining up to invalidate the will of the people. I kind of wish Tim Blair readers and posters could vote.
Someone is worried about the Reuters poll? Good God man, put all newspapers down - get off all the unfriendly political blogs - heck get off all of them except Tim's here and take a big breath.
Black vote is not coming in for Kerry. Rememeber all these new Kerry voters and how we are going to get them to the polls and vote now that we can vote early. WE are going to FRANCHISE THE DISENFRANCHISED!!!!!!!
But that isn't what is happening. Looks like Kerry is going to get only 80% of black vote at best. Exit polls of early voters show Bush up 15%, guess whose get out the vote machine is in overedrive. (Hint - not Kerry's). What I am trying to figure out, and just can't, is how big the victory is going to be. The popular vote seems a foregone conclusion, but the EC, how will it break?
I still see 52-48 Bush with Bush over 300 in the EC. But it could be bigger. Right now, for Kerry to make it close, he needs some pretty incredible scenarios - statistically not very likely.
Oh and it appears that the support for the NYT initial explosives story that just came out just got blown up [hehe] by the pentagon and the military. Kerry was never going to get a majority of the military vote, but he just lost a huge chunk of what he might have received. Florida is gone. Pennsylvannia is going to allow an extension on military absentee ballots which will be critical there - because they will almost all go for Bush.
Just watch the news of where the candidates are campaigning this weekend - the actual towns, not just the states. If Kerry is still in spots where his base is traditionally located - look for a blow out. If Bush is in his traditional base's spots to the exclusion of Kerry spots, it will be a long night. If Bush is really focusing hard in Kerry country in swing states it also will be ablow out. Right now, Kerry is playing defense. In politics, defense loses. Go vote and then enjoy a cold tall one.
I enjoy Steyn's writing, but he's a partisan cheerleader 24/7.
Well, he's Canadian. He's coming from where the Democratic Party is going, so to speak, so it's not like he's just uncritically praising everything the Republicans do. He knows from first-hand experience that the alternative ain't gonna work.
Right you are, JEM. Reuters is a joke, Bush is gonna win, and Kerry is campaigning in blue states, which he ought to have sewn up by now.
Still, I've got to admit, I'm kind of nervous, and indulging in a little gallows humor. The mere prospect of a Kerry win is more than I can bear. Time to start drinking...
Wellll, I really want to visit Australia, but I won't be permanently relocating until it's time to take the dirt nap.
I don't think John Kerry is going to win, but no matter who is president for the next four years, or the next eight, or the next twelve, that person will be shown no mercy. The MSM undeniably believes any sitting president is sliced ham on a plate, and "professional" journalists these days only want to be the one to carve him up and make a reputation. That's the most lasting damage I see from the last couple of U.S. elections.
Nerves are OK to a point! They get you to the poll and get your Bush vote counted. But too much nerves will force you into inaction, not good.
Have a relaxing weekend, get to bed early on Monday, get up early and vote on Tuesday (often if they will let you in places like Florida, Wisconsin and CHicago ;) ) and then hit your favorite watering hole for your favorite cold adult beverage. Just wait to call your annoying dem friends until after the suicide watch is cancelled!
God bless the Aussies for hanging tough! Now, let me get back to disenfranchising voters...
Nerves? I'm positively swooning, overcome by a full-on fit of the vapors. Someone fetch my salts!
No, you're right, JEM, I've got to get a grip. I'll just post my absentee ballot (properly marked, of course); I'll try to resist the temptation to rip up Kerry yard signs; then I'll pop a cork and get pleasantly bombed with like-minded friends.
"Having failed to read correctly the mood of my own backyard, I could hardly continue to pass myself off as a plausible interpreter of the great geopolitical forces at play"
Whatever happens will be within a couple of percent of what he and everyone else thought would happen. I don't see why he has to resign.
What's he going to do instead? Open a pub? Breed rabbits?
"Wellll, I really want to visit Australia, but I won't be permanently relocating until it's time to take the dirt nap."
I thought you had to be a criminal to get in. Now you have to be dead? Sheesh.
CAn you believe OBL is that stupid? And can you believe Kerry couldn't stop talking?!? He couldn't just take the high road, could he. This election is over, right now. The GOP should thank their lucky stars Kerry was the Dem nominee. He has absolutely no political sense whatsoever.
Speaking of the just released OBL tape of course.
research shows that they assimilate better into our laid-back lifestyle that way
So, the ALP were saying they were sure about the need to remove the ADF by Christmas AND now they say they are not sure...
LIARS!!! LIARS!!! LIARS!!! LIARS!!!
LIARS!!! LIARS!!! LIARS!!! LIARS!!!
I'm not hopeful in the long term
I am. America can survive John Kerry. I think we will make things a lot harder on ourselves by electing him, but we will survive.
Look between 1964 and 1980 we suffered through LBJ, Nixon, Ford and Carter. That is 16 years of lousy presidents. If we can survive that, we can survive 4 years of Kerry.
But I hope we don't have to.
In order to be on the SCOTUS, wouldn't Hillary still have to be approved by the Senate? Not likely, I think. Anyway, the point is moot because W will win Tuesday.
Butch I'm sure my daughter would love to adopt a pal for her Siberian Husky- I am still in recovery mode since her last visit and took same dog for a little walk- 16 ks she took me and just near home when she seemd so tired I let her off the lead- and then spent 3 hours trying to get her back as she decided to round up about 1000 sheep and nnew born lambs single pawededly. My neighbour got me in his gun sights
If you can shoot rabbits I can loan you a shot gun and if you have 2-3 million I'll give you a room and throw me in as a bonus!!
and Matthew whats to shoot that's dangerous -snakes are protected-hah- red backs, white tails, bull ants-painful- we could try open season on the water melons but the pips go every where and re-sprout