Tim Blair

There is nothing I've seen on the various coverages that suggests that Kerry is making up ground.

Its a bit early but things look like they are maintaining the status quo.

Fox just called Louisiana for Bush. Looking good for the good guys so far. Bush 165 Kerry 112

Vague? Nope. Midwest is coming in. Bush territory.

Check out how Clark Co., Ohio is voting:
http://election.sos.state.oh.us/results/RaceDetail.aspx?race=PP

Looks like they're going for Bush! :D

Hey "Guardian!" F**k you!

At the nadir today, online betting exchange Betfair had Kerry at $1.24.

He's now $2.26.

Bush is going to take OH and FL. I'm pretty much calling the election for Bush right now.

I agree with ChrisV. Bush has it wrapped up if Florida and Ohio hold solid. Missouri (where I'm from) was looking close but now is about 53-46 Bush. Michigan is in the Bush camp right now. It could be a fairly significant win for Bush, easing over the 300 EV total.

FL & OH look good for Bush
NH looks good for Kerry
MN, WI, & MI are showing early leads to Bush

Tim,

No worries, Mate! We've done our part. The Coalition will be maintained and Fallujah will mourn tomorrow.

Landslide coming. Kerry cannot come back from here.

British/European channels still spinning furiously for Kerry (at almost 3 am - and I'm sober and cold).

boy PA wasn't even close - that was a waste of money

Media is very cautious about Florida. 73% in, Bush on 52%, but its still undecided?

Guess they don't want to do a "2000" again.

The horserace blog (republican supporter)has some interesting running commentary on voting in comparable counties in Florida & Ohio mostly favorable to Bush.

http://jaycost.blogspot.com/

Washington DC - 90% for Kerry

Hah!

Bush isn't doing too badly in Michigan. Isn't that Michael Moore's homestate? Way to pull a Gore, Michael.

The British/Euro channels keep saying it's too close to call, too early to say anything. Well, it may turn out very close in the end. But there's just nothing at all about the fact that Bush is looking very good at the moment. Just lots of forgetable waffle from guests. The guy who presents the state-by-state numbers also keeps emphasising that it's very close.

The internet is completely kicking TV's ass on this.

I'm starting to feel cautiously optimistic.

Scott Campbell: It's 3 AM and you're both sober and cold? Ditch the sober part and you'll forget about the cold. Two birds, one stone.

"The internet is completely kicking TV's ass on this."

Why yes, yes it is.

I'm not going to say landslide quite yet, because it would be premature to say landslide at this point, when there is no firm evidence of a landslide.

Landslide
Landslide
Landslide

Bah! We all know it will be a plastic election victory!

Worried. Clear looks like of box stuffing in dem pcts.

One more thing - the Beeb and other channels keep saying over and over that it's 2000 all over again.

Why do they talk such crap? Well, apart from the fact that they're full of it, most of the analysts seem to spend their whole time talking rather than looking at the more detailed results that are coming in.

Evilpundit,

You're 'cautiously optimistic.' Why the caution? How the hell is Kerry going to get back from here?

The guy who presents the state-by-state numbers also keeps emphasising that it's very close.

Weird. The figures I see, indicates its less of a close race than 2000

Kerry seems to be doing worse than Gore...at the moment.

I'm revising down my earlier estimate of the Bush electoral college landslide:

Bush: 3.75 Gazillion
Kerry: -12

If Michael Moore can deliver Michigan for Bush then it would be the sweetest one of all!!

Good to see John Edwards following in the tradition of Al Gore from 2000 and losing his home state of North Carolina also. Maybe there was a big lesbian turnout this time?

Edwards is gonna sue someone.

Just don't know, I'm still slightly pessimistic. But no surprises thus far. It'll all depend on OH and FL, and it's hard to tell what precincts have reported (red vs. blue). My wife is telling me that the DNC is behind these "exit polls", but who knows.

But on the brighter side, I just heard Barack Obama's wife introduce him as "my baby's daddy", which is a first in politics I think.

CL, I love this comment from your site

Meanwhile LGF commenter karmic_inquisitor suggests an interesting theory: "If Bush was "selected not elected" in 2000, then 2004 would be the first election he 'won,' right? Well then, he must be eligible to be re-elected in 2008 since he is limited to being 'elected' to two terms.

Classic! That's what happens to people who don't think through conspiracy theories to their logical conclusion...

It was funny... a few months ago I predicted it wouldn't be that close a race, then about a week ago I started saying it was gonna be really close... now we see it's *probably* going to be a pretty decent Bush win. But, the Left Looney Coast hasn't reported in yet and we know how they're going to go.

I notice Ohio hasn't been called even though 30% of the vote's in. (Several counties, including the county of my old hometown, haven't sent in any results yet. Based on what I recall from living there, they'll have to send in their results by carrier pigeon or snail or something.)

Saw several heated discussions and one almost-fistfight on mass transit... usual topic was Bush and how he's rigged the elections. (Again. *grin*) The "proles" here in SF/CA are gonna be uber-irate if Kerry loses.

Geez. Yahoo says 79% of the precincts are reported in Florida with 52% of the vote for Bush and they still won't call it.

Pennsylvania is not lost. Hold your horses. Approximately 4 million votes need to be counted and only a third are in. Please note that those counties counted first are Gore/Kerry counties. Bush overwhelmingly wins suburban vote in Pittsburgh are counties and will win the central T. I will wait quite a while before calling this state. Butler County is going more strongly for Bush than in 2000!

BBC finally talk to an American reporter on the ground who says Florida 2004 is going nothing like 2000. Oops! The BBC didn't want to hear that.

What's happening now is priceless - some English BBC suited twit is going around a bowling alley in Ohio asking people who they voted for and making a complete fool of himself.

BTW it's Peter Snow doing the state-by-state analysis. If Bush leads a state then he says it's too early to tell.

Easy people. Lets see how the Senate is coming in. Bunning got past but Martinez in Florida is heading to the courts and Specter is in a real fight. Ditto Coors.

Hmm, Ohio so far...Bush 50.66%, Kerry 46.54%, Cobb (Greens) 2.31%. Not quite close enough right now, and I hope Bush keeps this lead, but can you imagine the Democrats' reaction if the Greens kill them in Ohio even without Nader at the top of their ticket?

42nd SSD, poll workers in Ohio average 73 years old. Give 'em a break, they move slow.

the west coast is yet to come in but I'm with Eric Blair (aka Orwell), they should call Florida for Bush as well as Ohio - I'm much happier than I was 2 hours ago!

DM

Brown Hornet, I'm a really pessimistic sorta guy. So 'cautious optimism' is about as good as it gets, until all the votes are in and a landslide is confirmed.

By the way, it just occurred to me that if we could harness the energy of left-wing heads exploding, we might have enough power to last the rest of the decade.

Bush now has slight lead in New Hampshire.

Quentin George says:

Washington DC - 90% for Kerry

Doesn't it remind you of Canberra?

JPB

I'm watching the coverage at c-span
Bush is currently winning New Hampshire by about 270 votes... thats closer than Florida '00

On the whole the result is looking mighty promising WOOT!!!

You are going to be waiting for awhile for Ohio...a number of counties still have 5 hour queues waiting to vote, after the polls closed. (Once you are in the queue before the cutoff time, you can vote.)

It's gonna be a long night...

must...keep...drinking...c'mon...george

I am doing my damnedest to get NH in the Bush column, but I can only go back and get in line to vote again so many times an hour....

Doesn't it remind you of Canberra?

Sure does. I happen to live in the People's Republic of the Australian Capital Territory. This is where "swinging" means you don't know whether to mark ALP on the Reps sheet first, or the Senate sheet first.

Landslide! Look out below!

Hmm:

Massachusetts 2000: Gore 59.80%, Bush 32.50%, Nader 6.42%

Massachusetts 2004 (74% reported): Kerry 62%, Bush 37%.

John F'ing Kerry hasn't even managed to keep the Gore/Nader voters in his home state, it sure looks like.

Can they call Florida yet?

87% of polls are in, and Bush is up 52-47.

I'll party my fu...Errr, celebrate when even the MSM figures Ohio and Florida are in Bush's bag...There's still a hanging chad bone or two flailing a disenfranchised wrist against the drawstring.

Oooooouuup...There goes Arkansas!

Those three red cherries in the Senate cocktail taste pretty damn sweet though.

Can they call Florida yet?

No, because the big counties (Dade, Palm Beach) haven't reported yet, and they are heavily Democratic.

Well, Quentin, you can always do the radical thing and vote 1 = Green and give the ALP your second preference.

That'd teach them bastards not to take your vote for granted! :-)

JPB

On channel 9 (Austraila), Hugh Rimmington has said a few times that Kerry is "still in it" and it's "not over just yet". To me, that sounds as if they believe that Bush will probably go on to win, but Kerry still does have some hope yet. So I guess Bush's chances are improving...

It's been good coverage so far. Very fair and even-handed.

ITV also saying that it's all incredibly close. Why don't they save money on staff costs and use robots to repeat the same information over and over again?

(Oh sorry, they already do).

Bill Neely, 'International Editor', is now giving Kerry a blow-job, in a profile that sounds like it was written by... Kerry. (One negative comment - Kerry seemed dull).

America, F--- YEAH!

earlier on i was debating whether or not to open the champers, not wanting to jinx anything... now that things are starting to look much more optimistic i've opened it.

i have been so anxious these past few days, sort of like before a big exam or a first date, but 100000 times more so.

The silent majority is at work...

I'll leave you with an Orwell quote which is very fitting (as all of his quotes are!):

"So much of left-wing thought is a kind of playing with fire by people who don't even know that fire is hot." - George Orwell

It's looking good for the Bushmeister General.

Imagine if you took a bag of cats and threw it into a jet engine. That's the noise I expect the global 'liberal' 'intelligencia' to make when Bush wins.

It'll be like Alderbran getting blown up in Star Wars "A million voices crying out then silenced!" Only not silenced, in fact continuing to yammer on incessently and irritatingly for four more years.

Fuck you, Mike Moore! Ha ha!

Why do you Americans colour your right-wing party commie red on the electoral maps?

Gawdelpus I can see the demograph Barack Obama is pitching at and it's vomit-inducing: Gen X tools who think they invented parenthood. One of the males from his crowd up on the noisy stage with a small baby. Do they have to cart their sprogs around to prove they've got balls?

i think the people of michigan would be the last to be fooled by michael moore. to start with, he's always saying how he's a regular joe, a working class guy from flint - when in fact, he's from davidson, which is a much wealthier suburb.

in abe lincoln's words, you can fool some of the people all the time, you can fool all of the people for some time, but you can't fool all of the people all the time!

I've wondered that myself, and also why the Republicans are known as the GOP but the Democrats are just Dems or DNC

and why the US votes on Melbourne Cup Day.

GOP stands for Grand Old Party, and I don't remember where that came from.

Up until 2000, I believe, the Republican states were colored blue and the Dems were Red. Don't know why that changed.

BBC now conceding that if Bush wins Ohio, it'll be all over. (This is mainly because of an American studio guest who actually has a clue how the whole thing works and is keeping a close eye on the numbers coming in).

Quentin: Because Commie red is better than UN blue.

And DNC stands for Democrat National Committee, which is part of the Democrat party.

I still can't figure out why other countries don't celebrate July 4th like we do. Not even our friends the Brits.

Strange.

Mr. Bingley-- hope you found an acceptable coalition beverage. I seem to have settled for oceans of cheap Italian Greejio.

The Republican Party started in the 1850's, formed from a split in the Democratic party, whose members, primarily abolitionists, felt the Democrats were no longer representing their interests. They decided to call themselves Republicans because they felt their ideals were very similar to Jefferson's Democratic-Republican party. After the Civil War, the upstart Republicans were perceived as the party that won the war. Now firmly entrenched in the federal government, they were ironically dubbed the "Gallant Old Party," which soon became the "Grand Old Party," which was soon shortened to the familiar acronym "GOP."

Actually its the first Tuesday after the first monday in November, so it can be anywhere from the 2nd to the 7th (I think)
John Ray has a post up at dissectleft about why

if you look here, you'll see that actually those bigger counties have mostly reported in in florida.

Fox News just called the NC Senate seat for Burr over the Clintonista!!!!!!!

CNN.com has just given PA to Kerry.

I guess the gap was a bit too large for Bush to close, even though someone here has said the more Republican-leaning areas were yet to report.

Quentin, we're taking the color red back. Kind of like gay activists taking back the term "queer" and so on. [/SARCASM?]

Quentin: Commies don't 'own' red.
;^)

Clark County Ohio
Bush, George W. Republican 14,760 54.39%
Kerry, John F. Democratic 12,245 45.12%

HA! Kiss my ass Guardian!!!!

"Why do you Americans colour your right-wing party commie red on the electoral maps?"

Not Commie red...Patriot Red, as in the blood of the patriots who fought to keep this damn country out of the hands of ignorant so-called 'liberals'. :) I think it's most appropriate.

bruce - lots of peter lehman and wolf blass shiraz (and thank god i took tomorrow off work) for me and the wife is imbibing lindemans chardonney!

Mr. Bingley - will you have a virtual screwdriver with me? All I have in the fridge is vodka, and it's actually making the returns rather fun to watch in a lighthearted sort of way.

Daily Kos are worried. Very worried:

e.g. "MSNBC exit poll indicates that the youth did not vote. The 18-29 bracked voted the same this year as in 2000, while 30-44 group was down.

That's what's killing us."

Still too early to say that Mr Bush has won but I agree with nicki that the silent majority are at work. Good on you all!

sonetka - lighthearted or lightheaded? but of course...cheers!

I reckon you Americans should cast California adrift from the Union. Maybe it can form its own arrangement with Quebec, eh?

Thanks for the lesson, nicki. I love that about the internet. I've forgotten so much of what I learned in school, but there is always someone out there to fill me in.

e.g. "MSNBC exit poll indicates that the youth did not vote. The 18-29 bracked voted the same this year as in 2000, while 30-44 group was down. That's what's killing us."

So after all the Michael Moore stuff, the Rock the Vote, the etcetera...the young'uns STILL didn't bother to trot down to a booth?

Lazy bums.

Polly - no problem, i had actually looked that up about two days ago myself because i had forgotten!

Mr. Bingley - both, of course! I'm trying to think of a good portmanteau word. Lighthearded?

Oh, and what's all this about the youth not voting? My husband and I (we're both 25), like, *so* voted :). Of course, the votes were for Bush, but hey, you take what you can get.

JPB, some of us have been hoping that California would break off and slide into the sea as has been predicted for years. My only regret would be on behalf of President Reagan who had a fondness for the place.

Oh, and will they just CALL Florida already? All this 197-188 crap is freaking me out. (They just *had* to throw Cali in there to make it look close, didn't they?)

Sonetka, thanks for a great idea. I just poured myself a big glass of Florida orange juice, with a shot of Ketel...mmmmmm.

They called California with 0% of the polls returned according to Yahoo.

Hmmm!

It is but I'm having a frigging heart attack here. I need a higher alcohol drink.

Hey! Before anybody here breaks out the Sawzalls and starts sawing off Californicatorland, let some of us sane CA inhabitants know ahead of time--at the very least we can help.

How are things at The Rocks?

Kerry is winning pennsylvania by around 300,000 odd with 70% counted and they call it for him, Bush is winning florida by around 300,000 with 94% counted and they still wont call it...
WTF?????!!!!111eleven?

They'll deny it up to the bitter end, RhikoR. It's what they do.

They've already called PA for kerry

>They called California with 0% of the polls returned according to Yahoo.

1% according to C-Span!

Un-f**k***-believable! Opened up the ABC(Aust) web site to see the headline "Kerry wins one of key US states". They then list the states Kerry has won.

The only mention of Ohio and Florida is that "both are too close to call".

How hard are these clowns spinning.

Quentin George says:

They called California with 0% of the polls returned according to Yahoo.

Well, why not?

As you well know, no need to count the vote in the ACT either, and you can be certain the ALP has won!

California's not quite D.C, but it's no that much different.

John Edwards failed to deliver NC - or any other Southern State votes - to Kerry.

And he's also lost his vacated Senate seat to a Republican.

If Bush wins, the junior hairdo will have brought exactly squat to the effort.

Kerry, of course, would keep his Senate seat, given that he refused to resign it for the election.

So after all the Michael Moore stuff, the Rock the Vote, the etcetera...the young'uns STILL didn't bother to trot down to a booth?

Hey, I would've, but there's this lack of citizenship that posed a slight obstacle...'course, if I were a Kerry supporter, somebody probably could have gotten me on the voter rolls if I'd tried...

when they call fla, and if ohio stays as is, that'll be close to, what, 250 or so? c'mon!

sonetka, i noticed they took down the early call for washington...jeffs, did they finally find your vote?

Bought some Black Swan Shiraz on your Big Day.
Just put it in the fridge.
Maybe I'll give it an hour or so, but I'm beginning to think I'll be drinking it in celebration and not to get to sleep.
Hope you Aussies can hoist one with me.

Cybercast is calling it 207 to 199 to Bush.

That's pretty dam close. Isn't it?

Sonetka: The MSM is hopelessly biased I agree, but there's practical business reasons for them not conceding florida and ohio too early, too. Remember that what really matters to them above all is viewers, or hits on their website. Calling OH or FL too early may give people the impression the race is over and would lead to reduced viewers.

Biased, sure, but on this matter I'd wager it's the bottom line calling the shots. The fact it fits in with their general agenda, all the better.

This just in...

Moody's has upgraded Brett from Pessimistic to Cautiously Optimistic. Analysts advise that Brett might be way too volatile to put your money in.

Seriously, I'm feeling much better, and it's only partly due to the red wine. FL and OH look good. Damn, 94% precincts reporting in FL with Bush up by 5% and they won't call it? Perhaps somebody knows something.

Anyway, I might eat some serious crow and have to accept lots of Told Ya So's from my wife.

But all in all, I'm happy. Even happier when I see the panic at DU.

Maybe they won't call Florida, because the Democrats still want a chance to steal it?

i'm not american but i did persuade at least ONE, if not two, new york state voters to go for bush.
these kids had no idea about any policies and i let them know about the facts and dispelled any untruthful rumours they had heard in moore's movies.
obviously new york was safe for kerry but in a weird way, i feel a little proud of being able to contribute in this very very important election. probably the most important of my life, definitely the most important sofar (i'm still young-ish). this election does not only concern the USA, it's extremely important for the rest of the world!! global security depends on it.

Yes, it's probably up to the Dem's lawyers to allow the networks to call Florida.

National Review is agreeing with what I said earlier, that Kerry is doing worse than Gore.

Bush has won Florida, they just won't admit it.

After that, Ohio, Colorado, and New Mexico(all looking good), and it's a done deal baby.

That's not even counting Nevada(too soon), Wisconsin(looking good), or New Hampshire(toss-up).

By my bacl of the envelope calcs its 284evs to 254evs at least.

By my back of the envelope calcs its 284evs to 254evs at least.

Cybercast is calling it 207 to 199 to Bush.

That's pretty dam close. Isn't it?

CL, they've already called California, which boosts Kerry a lot, due to its 55 votes.

Things are looking grim for one fat Michiganian.

by the way, apart from fox news on australian foxtel, i'm watching the c-span returns which at least seem to update in real time.

C-SPAN: 2004 GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS

The lead in FL seems too big to even try to steal, but who knows.

I agree with the other sentiments on here...Kerry seems to be doing worse than Gore. Wow.

And I eat serious crow given that it appears that the youth vote didn't turn out this year. On another note, I'm not sure I'm ready to not be considered part of the youth vote, but I just need to let go.

nicki, good on you. I have the opposite situation: convinced my wife of Bush's merits over Kerry, but she is not a US citizen.

So, a personal thanks for the helping hand !

Scotland here. BBC moveing towards a Bush majority. The coalition of the willing is holding, Howard, now Bush, and Blair in the next 6 months. In the Anglosphere you can fight wars to overthrow dictatorships and still get elected. Let all Tyrants take note, reform or die. F**K you indeed "Guardian", guardian of what exactly?

The hero of Cambodia is up a creek without a paddle.

carl in n.h. - glad to help, at least now i feel like i may have had some very insignificant influence on all this. i have been following the election coverage closely for the last few months. something that can't be said of any other 22 y/o non-american i know!

Florida now called for Bush!

Um...why is Washington still called for Kerry, now that Bush is leading 50-49?

Susan Estrich (on Fox News), who was downright giddy earlier, has said that Ohio is "everything" and is counting on one particular county ("Kayahoga"?) swinging the vote, cutting into Bush's 4% lead. Then something about urban OH precincts that would be coming in.

I hope she's wrong, but I hope that was spin. Definitely a different msg from earlier. The silly spin seems to have shifted parties.

She's also claiming the FL lead will be contested, "lots of questions", yada yada yada.

scotland, god bless ya.

as soon as i finish this bottle of australian loveliness i will move into some tasty murray mcdavid...yum.

'BBC moveing towards a Bush majority.'

And they took those exit polls so much to heart. Poor dears.

ABCs called Florida for Bush (about frelling time)

The margin in Ohio and Florida is all Bush. I'm calling it. Kerry is dead - 3 Nov 2004 12.44PM Perth WA Time. Go Bush!!!!. Please send your daughters to Australia to celebrate with me, but don't tell my wife.

Whatsisname on channel 9 has just called Florida for Bush does that count?

Kerry was always going to get Cali, that's a given. Florida and Ohio are the crucials, and they're looking good.

Florida is in the bag for Bush. Ohio is this year's Florida. If Bush takes it it's over.

...and what happened to resident troll charlemagne?

I'd feel a little sad if he's banned.

:)

From ABC America: Bush 237, Kerry 188.
I'd put my money on Bush to win.
Thank God.

Razor, sounds good to me, although I think I'm glad I don't have a daughter. ;-)

ABC just called FL for Bush, and CNN's Woodruff says her DNC contacts have conceded as well. As predicted, it all goes to OH. Given the number of potential-chad-hanging ballots used there today, let's just hope Bush's 4% lead holds so it doesn't head to court.

Richard Aubrey:I'll raise one (a VB) with you tonight. I hope when Mr Bush wins tonight he gives the MSM a flogging for their out-and-out bias.

Yep, and I hope Mr Kerry gets so deflated by his loss that he packs his bags and pisses off to France or some other degenerate old world country where the only thing not contaminated by the inhabitants touch is the soap, because they refuse to wash.

Drudge probably has the best map and most up to date i have seen and is also now posting republican sources claiming Ohio: "At 10:30 p.m., Bush was told by a senior adviser that Ohio would land in the GOP column and put him over the top with at least 274 electoral votes, the sources said"

Brett, she's talking about Cuyahoga County, Cleveland area, big rust-belt area that lost a lot of jobs. It could hurt Bush, but maybe not. Time will tell.

According to www.repubblica.it, ABC has called Florida for Bush.

I was beginning to feel quite confident but that has taken as dent in the past 10 minutes.
According to c-span Bush is leading in enough undecided states to win, but if only one of these (not including washington which is too close/early) goes to Kerry then he will lose.
He is only winning New Mexico by 12,000 odd and Kerry is gaining

Yeah, Cuyahoga County is really the Democratic heavy hitter in Ohio, it is also essentially the arch nemesis of my home county. Cuyahoga is in the north east of the state, home to Cleveland, Hamilton County is the extreme southwest of Ohio, home to Cincinnati. Cuyahoga is bigger, and it will go for Kerry, Hamilton County will almost certainly go for Bush, though I wouldn't guess by how much.

Sho - Understandable, but I can't say this shredding of my nerves is exactly encouraging me to return to the networks come November 3rd (or 4th, for all of you whose time zones are significantly ahead of ours). Sure, they get great ratings for one night, but do they really want their viewers to subsequently associate the words "CNN" (or whatever) and "intense pain"?

I need another screwdriver. We also have some pumpkin pie in the fridge, and i should probably eat something, but I think that that combination plus an unexpected sighting of Kerry's lamprey grin might do me in.

Also saw somewhere on TV coverage that the Carolina senate seat vacated by Edwards has been claimed by Republicans? Wonder how dems leader Daschle is doin in Dakota?

Bush media guru woman Karen Hughes has just spoken to Dan Rather on CBS and all but claimed victory including quoting the dark conspirator Karl Rove as saying: "close but optimistic"

With roughly a third of the vote in, Cuyahoga is going almost 70% for Kerry, with Hamilton slightly over 50% for Bush.

How strange is this that I'm posting these statistics on an Australian blog? UK next!!

pumpkin pie on top of a screw driver could get messy. i mean, you and the hubby are still young enough to power through it, but i would suggest...another screwdriver.

just a thought.

Rebecca, thanks. I've heard that if Bush loses OH, he has OH Republicans to blame. I don't know much about it, but apparently OH is largely run by tax-happy Republicans, and I know OH has been hit by job-loss. Looks good thus far, though.

Still, Susan sounded rather desperate.

Lofty, the wife is talking about Machu Picchu next summer.
Maybe she'll settle for Ayres Rock.

BBC finally talk to some GOP people, but then cut straight to a PLO spokewoman.

The people at Chris Shiel's blog must be going nuts

Mr. Bingley - yes, I was thinking only if the election started to look really bad (Kerry sweeping to victory etc) the pumpkin pie would come into play. Then I'd be in too much pain to really care about the impending administrative disaster.

But for now - another screwdriver it is!

Ohio freaking me out.

PLO spokewoman.

PLO!?! I didn't know they were running candidates. What bearing do they have on the election?

With 66.72% of the vote in, Bush still leads by 52.31% in Ohio.

theresites - with 67% reporting, CSPAN says Thune leads Daschle 50.5 to 49.5%.

But 2 years ago he was leading Johnson by what seemed an insurmountable lead with one Indian reservation precinct to report, and (shockingly) lost. He chose not to contest the fraud and to concentrate on 2004. Let's hope it pays off. After Bush, the wife and I are rooting for Thune more than anybody.

ohio...new mexico...wisconsin...oy, i'm putting quite a dent into the wine cellar tonight

I just talked to a girl I know who's in the Army National Guard and is stationed in Iraq. I asked her if she got to vote, and she said, "Yes, for Bush. I know only one soldier who voted for Kerry, and I know a LOT of soldiers here." So don't believe the crap that you hear about our military not liking Bush!

Wisconsin trending back to Kerry. :( Just checked the by-county stats...still plenty of votes to be counted in Milwaukee County and Dane County (Madison), and the one big and one semi-big conservative counties (Waukesha and Racine) probably aren't going to make up for it...

just overheard a a bon jovi song on bbc world that is on at john kerry's party venue.

"We´ve got to hold on to what we´ve got,

it doesn´t make a difference,

If we make it or not,

We´ve got each other and that´s a lot"

ha ha ha
the people on chris' blog are conceding defeat.

Colorado 63% reporting bush has jumped to a 54% lead.

Ohio 74% reporting Bush 51-Kerry 48.

Still 52-48% for Bush in Ohio with 72% of precincts reporting. No movement yet at all towards Kerry.

The Bushies are feeling pretty confident now about Ohio according to Fox News. I think the fat lady is warming up.

Richard Aubrey, I don't know where Machu Picchu is, but Ayres Rock is fine. Just a shame about the long flight to get over here. But on the positive side, there's plenty of time for drinking on the flight!

Scott Campbell at Blithering Bunny, what are the media tarts doing talking to a PLO representative about the election?

Lofty - he's probably an "election observer" dispatched by the UN.

Gap closing slightly in OH, which is where it all sits right now.

But Bush is still leading in NM (can't wait to hear from Richardson if Bush takes that state) and trending better in NV.

OH + NV, or OH + NM = Bush for 4 more.

(WI still fairly close)

Brett - at least I'm polite and asked, most men don't. Drinking age here is 18, too! Just in case the girls were wondering.

I've just estmated a minimum 271 EV for Bush on C-Span results. I excluded the really close states.

>Scott Campbell at Blithering Bunny, what are the media tarts doing talking to a PLO representative about the election?

There's been quite a few Arab speakers giving the 'Arab' POV on British TV tonight. The PLO etc. always get articulate, well-groomed, good-looking young women to represent them on British TV. No crazy unshaven towel-heads wielding guns for the BBC. (No normal moderate Arab people for that matter).

Sonetka, the UN may as well have sent Bin Hiding as well to oversee the election. Oh that's right he's incommunicado in some cave or other.

Lofty - if they could find him, I bet they would. Just to get a balanced view, you know :).

[drinks]

[shakes in fear]

fox just called colorado for bush, putting his total at 246 over 195. with ohio, the president will have 266 and he'll be pretty damn close to victory.

actually, it looks like the gap has widened slightly to nearly 15,000 in ohio. yippee!

Looks like Bush won Clark County OH ... I wonder how the Guardian feels about that?!

Woohoo! C'mon Ohio, you can do it.

(I admit it; I partly want us to get Ohio for nasty personal reasons. A very ex-boyfriend of mine - obviously from my idiotic, pre-husband college days - is a MoveOn, foaming-at-the-mouth Kedwards supporter living in Ohio. I will admit to hoping for shameless joy in contemplating his misery tomorrow morning, should things work out).

[declines to drink toast, for fear of jinxing it]

>it looks like the gap has widened slightly to nearly 15,000 in ohio.

Actually, C-Span make it about 130 000 (with 79% counted).

Judy Woodruff on CNN looks like she's either just cried or she's just about to...Voice cracking.

CNN still running big scare headlines about how Ohio is Too Close To Call. Guys, it's late, even for those of us who are stateside. Stuff the ratings and just call it already.

Anyone got any inside dope on Nevada? It's very close, with only 15% counted.

Sonetka - I'll toast with you, at the very least to spite those stupid, clueless ex-boyfriends!

I'm signing off to go watch Rather/Brokaw/Jennings eat sh---er, crow.

scott cambell-

er, my alcohol-besodded fingers missed a zero on the keyboard...

Melissa -

*clink*

May their dreams wither in the harsh light of day.

Scott - I'm a little surprised at the NV results thus far. The nuclear waste dumpsite issue might hurt him there. I'd still be surprised to see NV go blue, especially given Las Vegas being such a big terrorist risk. Let's hope OH and NM make NV a non-issue.

Ohio must be Bush's. Another 3% counted since I last posted, from 79% to 82%, and the gap has narrowed from 130 000 to 127 000, but even at that rate the gap is way too wide.

Fox just called Ohio for Bush!!

Bush wins OH. *beams a smile* I -love- this country!

Bush still at 51-48.

82% counted.

Go Ohio!

That's 150,000 in Ohio; down to 120,000 with maybe 600,000 to count.

Fox has called it for Dubya.

He needs 3 electoral votes to secure re-election.

Looking OK lads.

Sonetka - *clink*!!

I feel embarrassed that I even have to ask at this point, but how many electoral votes does OH have?

CNN just called Oregon for Kerry. Big flippin' surprise there.

>scott cambell - er, my alcohol-besodded fingers missed a zero on the keyboard...

You drunkbloggers disgust me. Thanks God I stayed sober.

(Christ, why didn't I think to get some beers in?)

Oh, this is precious. Dan Rather is doing his best to show how Kerry could -still- win it. His poor hand is shaking as he points to the different states on the map.

OH has 20 electoral votes. Fox is calling it for Bush.

Just checking in......I see things are looking good for President Bush, even if those flippin' colonists from California gave Washington to Kerry.

Wait!

Is that Mrs. Edwards singing an aria?

hmmm, scott you can tell i'm drinking aussie wine, because if it was aussie beer then i'd never have missed the 'p'...

*hic*

According to CNN's running tally, with 72% of the national vote counted, Bush is leading Kerry by 3 million votes in the popular count.

Another stolen election, ladies and gentlemen!

I'm looking forward to going to the airport tomorrow and waving goodbye to all the folks who promised to move to France if Bush won again.

Fox just called Ohio for GWB!! It's over

Sonetka - OH has 20.

The best site (IMHO) is here:

http://network.ap.org/dynamic/files/specials/election_night_2004/us_map_govsenhouse/index.html?SITE=CSPANELN&SECTION=POLITICS

Twenty votes, excellent.

But I'm not getting out the *good* vodka until I see that ticker hit 270.

John Kerry US Navy (Retired)

Okay, now just one goal...getting Bush to 300+ EVs so the Democrats don't even think about litigating individual states.

Another stolen election, ladies and gentlemen!

We're getting better at it, too. By 2012, we should be able to steal 55% of the popular vote, easy.

obviously, bbc world says that depiste fox's call, ohio is "still a knife's edge" because a few provisional ballots haven't been counted yet.

WOO HOO! Bush got Ohio! Yeah!

Makes up for my forlorn vote in Washington.

God, I need a drink. Quick, someone hoist one for me!

Oh wow...Carville on CNN just basically conceded. Paula Zauhn (sp?) just tried to get him to take it back, but he wouldn't.

Novak agreed. ;-)

ITV say that Bush needs either Alaska or Nevada to win, completely forgetting New Mexico.

done, jeffs!

john micklethwaite from the now-left-wing the economist has just realized on sky news that europeans will be pissed off when they wake up...

Jeff - asked and answered.

*clink*

(For the record, I'm not exactly drunkblogging. I can make my screwdrivers last a long time. But they certainly lend a warm air of happy surreality to the evening)

Okay, now just one goal...getting Bush to 300+ EVs so the Democrats don't even think about litigating individual states.

Sorry, PW, but lawyers (and especially Democratic lawyers) need no excuse to file a lawsuit. Note the "intimidation by rolled eyes" suit in South Dakota.

Dem Demolition

BBC said Ohio on knief's edge ??? 52% to Bush???

Me thinks many liberals to be committing Hari-Kiri

I can understand people still being cautiously optimistic about it. Maybe a greater understanding of the US election system would make me that way, too. But I think there's no doubt: Dubya's got it sewn up.

The reason: Terrorism is THE big ussue. He's the only guy with a clear, morally driven attitude to it, and a plan to defeat it. And he has a spine.

Kerry (like many of his supporters) is basically a moral mollusc. He's all over the shop like a squid on a rock.

Novak -- "This is a conservative country"

"too conservative for the Democratic Party as presently constituted."

Amen.

Results updated every 6 minutes. BTW, you have to preview your post in order to post it.

AHHHHHHHH!!

Thank you, Sonetka and Mr. Bingley! I feel much better.

I chatted with my niece, who also live in Washington; she and her husband voted in Washington. So we commiserate in company. [sniff]

266.......Go Bush!

Drudge has just posted: "BUSH WINS"

just heard on CNN - "this country is too conservative for the democrats as constituters."
watch out for those excuses yet to come from the dems, i bet the OBL tape will be the democrats' #1 excuse for why bush won. furthermore, i bet that it won't have been kerry's own fault in the least.

The race has tightened a bit in Ohio ... Bush leads by 101,000 with 87% of the votes counted.

Sonetka - I didn't think I was drunkblogging, but the wife and I just did a wine inventory, and since the general mood of the election turned, we've consumed an impressive amount. I think I need to logoff soon.

Scott - I don't follow that news. OH is in the bag, so Bush needs to win either NV (he's down b/c of the nuke waste issue but it's a usual red state) or NM (he's up by 5% with 83% reporting). I just don't see it going any other way.

Hell, even Carville has conceded!!!

First Howard, then Bush. Great last few weeks.

Excuse me, that virtual alcohol is affecting my typing. I meant to say, "My niece and her husband voted for Bush".

hic!

Bush is shitting it in in AK - 62:35 with 44% of the vote counted.

NM to be declared for Bush any minute now.

It's all over. I feel so sorry for the SMH, The Age, the ABC and all the other assorted losers...

Well done, America! I never did think you could elect that weasel Kerry!

I'm looking forward to having a celebratory toast tonight. Cheers!

JPB

Kerry just pegged back 40,000 frickin' votes in Ohio, in going from 84% to 87% counted.

Lead now down to approx. 100k from 140k. Yikes.

Iowa is really, really close.

I sympathize, JeffS. Husband and I voted for Bush in Cook friggin' County, Illinois. Talk about one grand gesture of futility. I also voted for Keyes, not because I think he's sane, but because I'm tired of Barack Obama being the Second Coming.