Tim Blair

There's an election?

I can't get to my own site or post anything. I think we broke the Internet.

Election result prediction just in from some kids at MIT: In the last two presidential election years (1912, 1916) when the Red Sox won the World Series, Woodrow Wilson was elected President. 100% correlation.

Looks like Wilson's a shoe-in.

I can't get to a lot of websites.

Little Green Footballs, Instapundit, Command Post, Blogs of War etc.

This just due to massive use because everyone is checking every 5 seconds or could it be organized DOS attacks?

A little perspective on abortion, the Catholic vote, and why Alfonso ("Treasure of Sierra Madre") Bedoya is the father of progressive thought, for anyone already tired of exit polls:

http://paragraphfarmer.blogspot.com/2004/11/alfonso-bedoya-father-of-progressive.html

"Looks like Wilson's a shoe-in."

Maybe not, but it wouldn't surprise me to find out he's voting in Chicago today.

i think it's the 'everyone is checking every 5 seconds' DOS attack...

mom! treacher broke the internet!

It's nervous tension.

Huge turnout in my district/state. Last time around I walked right to the table to get my ballot. This time I had an hour wait. Drove past several polling places and all were busy. Very surprising.

These exit polls are driving me nuts! Of course the're unreliable. Of course they've oversampled women. But still. They make it look like Kerry is actually winning. I guess I'm just nervous because the future of Western Civilization hangs in the balance, that's all. No big deal.

Bush 300 ECV, Kerry 238

Bush – Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico & Hawaii

Kerry – Pennsylvania, New Hampshire & Minnesota

Of course, this makes me the most pro-bush optimist at the Cato Institute office pool, but I have faith…

Worst case senario is that noticing the Bush landslide, Hawaii decides to be annoying and vote against him out of spite...

About this 55th US Presidential Election and 109th Congressional Election: I had a great time waiting in line to vote here in Central Pennsylvania. Lots of friendly people united by democracy.

Most people here respect and cherish this tradition that goes back far beyond any of our living memories. Too bad only the problems are reported.

If the samples were almost 60/40 women and Kerry is only where he is, it is over. GO adopt a Democrat on the suicide hotline tonight.

Butch - I'm here for you. PLease step away from the keyboard, take a deep breath, and get the tall cold one Iwas talking about the other day. Everything will be OK.

Butch, I feel your pain. I'm a nervous wreck and can't seem to concentrate long enough to comprehend what I'm reading at work. I'm also listening to the radio on the internet. I'm on overload, so maybe I'll go for a walk around my office complex. It's a beautiful clear day in So. Cal. (Deep breaths . . . . deep breaths)

The last internet bubble is the internet itself and it's busted. Doesn't scale, apparently.

Just got to Treacher's site, maybe the innernut ain't all THAT broke...

BTW, Treach, what's up with your pet monkey? He's screaming for "halp", shouldn't you be pushing the little dweeb under a train or something? Is he still shacked up with that librarian in Springfield?

The little perv.

Is "oversampling women" a bad thing?

I think I'm going to puke. But other than that, I'm doing just fine. Except I have this compulsion to check blogs every 5 minutes..God, someone stop me! I'm breaking the internet!

I told my husband he has to take me out to eat tonight (it's a 3 bottle night) just to get me away from the tv and the internet.

I voted last week, I'm in Texas so it doesn't really matter. I'm pretty sure Texas will go for Bush at the very least. How's that for an understatment?

Voting is over in the Pacific protectorate Guam and Bush is home by a sizeable margin.

Guam results - scroll down to bottom of page.

Is "oversampling women" a bad thing?

The women might object.

I am in New Jersey, near Morristown. Anything Aussies have heard about my state being an unwashed crotch of the industrial revolution is NOT TRUE.

Well OK There are bits like that, but the Superfund is taking care of them (it's not an OZ pension scheme but an environmental abatement project. Oddly, the Superfund was started by Reagan, like the Bushitler a Republifascist who, we are told by our liberal betters, hated the environment and wanted to poison children's water.)

My bit looks like this.

I'm one of those who finds the idea of powdered ponce Jean-Francois Kerry and his African-American empress just intolerable on national security grounds. But I don't have expertise in that -- I'm a financial markets analyst -- so I am working on the economic and financial critique. I hope you'll take a look when the frozen internet thaws.

Cross your fingers for us.

What's happening at TradeSports? Bush was way ahead three hours ago, and he just tanked down to 36c

Andyzero - Everyone's checking blogs every five minutes. Hosting Matters is overwhelmed. It might take several tries to get to where you're going.

I thought my internet connection was busted this morning. I couldn't take the thought of an election night with NO INTERNET. Luckily, it was just a slow moment.

Voted at 8:30 this morning in suburban Philly - no problems. And lovely weather, too.

Who knows, maybe people trading at Tradesports are getting skittish, or maybe Soros is doing more of his manipulations. There have been some pretty wild swings at the Iowa Futures Market in the past few weeks.

2dogs: It's the impact of the "bad sample" early exit polls. The Dow was up this morning, but it dropped off in late afternoon because of those bad exit polls too. No worries, when people realize that Kerry only had a small lead when his own constituency was heavily overwieghted they will see it's good news for Bush.

Andyzero - On the other hand, there might have been a denial of service attack:

http://shut-the-fuck-up.blogspot.com/2004/11/conservative-blogs-under-denial-of.html

A left-wing UK cult is apparently preparing for mass suicide - the ultimate 'exit' poll:

UK Cult: 'Prepare to Kill Yourselves'

2dogs,

Could be on exit polling. However, you may remember exit polling predicting Gore to win by as high as 15% in Florida in 2000. The GOP have already discounted exit polls because of small and ridiculous samples.

I'd buy up at 36c, honestly. Bush only has to win one of Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida to win, presuming a few situations:

IF BUSH WINS...

Michigan: Bush must also win New Mexico, either Hawaii or New Hampshire, plus Iowa, Wisconsin. (even if Bush loses Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania.)

Ohio: Bush must win New Mexico, Iowa and Wisconsin for a tie.(even if Bush loses Michigan, Florida, Pennsylvania.)

Pennsylvania: Bush must win New Mexico, Iowa and Wisconsin to win.
...or Iowa, Wisconsin, and either Hawaii or New Hampshire to tie. (even if Bush loses Ohio, Florida, Michigan.)

Florida: Bush must win Wisconsin and Iowa... or Iowa, New Mexico and either Hawaii or New Hampshire.
...or Wisconsin and New Mexico to tie. (even if Bush loses Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania.)

If Bush wins neither Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania or Florida... he's going to need New Jersey, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico and two of Hawaii, New Hampshire and Maine. Still mathematically possible, but unlikely.

Now, if Bush wins Ohio and Florida, he'll win. If he wins Florida and Pennsylvania, he'll win. If he wins Florida and Michigan, he'll win. If he wins Ohio and Pennsylvania, he'll need either New Mexico, New Hampshire, Maine, Iowa, Wisconsin or Hawaii.

So basically... if Bush wins two of Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida, he'll win. If he wins one, he might win. If he wins none, he can still win, but almost certainly won't.

If Kerry doesn't win three of the four, Bush will win.

After parsing all the relevent sites and peeking at the leaked exit polls, here's my best guess at the final electoral college tally:

Bush: 10 gazillion
Kerry: -23

After reading Dylan's post about Guam, it seems the Guardian was right all along. If Guam gets to vote, why shouldn't the UK - after all, they have also been a US "protectorate" since at least 1917, haven't they?

Seriously, though, can someone inform this Aussie how Guam's vote gets included in the overall results - do they get added in to one of the states or what?

I thought I could go to bed last night and wake up this morning and it would be all over, Bush would have won, all would be well with the world and I would have avoided hours of anxious watching and waiting. Wrong.

So just what is the spread of time zones behind GMT that the US occupies? I'm guessing maybe 10 hours for Hawaii and maybe 6 for the east coast.

@ Dave Smith:

Goddamit Smith, didn't anyone up there tell you to ONLY show the refineries, dumps and body parts? We don't need no more stinkin' yuppies moving in here. S'matta you?

Memo to world: Do NOT move to Monmouth County. Send us your money and stay home. Or move in next to Smith.

Guam's vote don't count toward the Electoral College, so they really don't matter except to illustrate the preferences of a certain population. I think I read that Guam has voted for the presidential winner for the past 2 years.

Guam's vote don't count toward the Electoral College, so they really don't matter except to illustrate the preferences of a certain population. I think I read that Guam has voted for the presidential winner for the past 20 years.

Guam's vote doesn't count. It doesn't add to any of the states, or count to any electoral votes. There's nothing stopping the UK from having a vote for U.S. President every bit as meaningful as the one in Guam.

Gary, I think a few striving newcomers who vote republican (eg right-thinking Aussies) is actually just what we need. Dilute the votes of the Essex and Hudson.

Yes, they can come to Morris.

(Let's not tell them about winter, OK?)

"Looks like Wilson's a shoe-in."

Maybe not, but it wouldn't surprise me to find out he's voting in Chicago today.

More'n likely he's voting in Philadelphia, which apparently has more voters than live humans over age 18. Besides Illinois is prolly going to be a Dem. blowout, no need to get all greedy and stuff the ballot box, after all.

My son's elementary school voted yesterday. Results today were 53% Bush, 47% Kerry and we're in New Jersey (about 7 miles from NYC). So who knows? I voted and there wasn't even 5 people at the polling station after work today. Fingers crossed. I feel like if Bush loses we have let our troops down.

hey, any aussies who come to monmouth county, the first several rounds are on me!

Dave,

NJ looks nice - but do you get bears in your backyard, like Tony Soprano did?

Pfff. We get Tony Soprano himself in my backyard, and the bear . . . and the deer and the antelope play . . . foxes, coyotes, possums, skunks, racoons . . . all God's critters.

Of course, Aussies are used to critters, deadly snakes in the shower, spiders that can shoot darts of flaming radiological nerve agent accross a room and can dissolve your face while you sleep. They won't be fazed a bit.

Has anyone seen an exit poll for NJ???

I live in a fairly small town; on a bad day, it's a 10 minute drive from work to my house. I usually pedal, but the bike has a flat, so I drove.

Driving home today, I took the main street. The intersection of 2nd and Main had Presidential supporters on all corners. In the rain.

The good news is, they were sharing the corner, in a congenial, cooperative mood. No conflicts, no problems. Just Americans encouraging Americans to exercise their franchise.

The better news was the sound of the howl of approval that erupted when I leaned out of my truck, put my thumb up, and shouted, "GO BUSH!"

God, I hope Washington goes for Bush. It probably won't happen. But I can dream.

Seemingly off-topic, but arguably very on-topic, observation.

So Osama Bin Hidin' for three years, not only very few words from him, but what words there were, were of high dubiositude-- I long suspected the theory that some of them were actually his son, who apparently sounds like him if the recording is fairly crappy.

Then Professor Osama shows up to deliver the Robert A. Fisk Lecture in Geopolitics at the University of Burlap Backdrops.

Here's my thought on this: what if the reason he didn't really have much to say all this time is not because he sat on his ego all this time, but because someone else was sitting on him? And suddenly THEY, not he, had a strategic reason for wanting to influence the US election, and consequently let him come out in full flower at long last to serve their purposes, not his?

So who would that be? If he really needs dialysis (I have no idea how true that is), then he must be in Iran, not in the boondocks of Pakistan where electricity and clean sheets alone would be hard to come by. And it would make a lot of sense for the mullahs to have kept him under a tight lid of hospitality for the last three years (the last thing they want is for it to be known that public enemy no. 1 is living with them), and then for him to be let out for a carefully calibrated attempt to spook the American electorate into voting for the guy who's more likely to go easy on Iran.

It's a theory, I don't claim it's any more than that, but....

JeffS, it isn't over 'till the fat lady sings, and she's getting warmed up. All of eastern Washington, plus eastside King County and southwest Washington lean Republican. It could happen yet.

JEM and Polly, thanks for your support. I think I will take a deep breath and have that adult beverage now (responsibly consumed, of course). Icy, cool, crisp, juicy, bubbly, tart, tingling, refreshing, exciting, delicious. Ahhhhhh!

Yeah, I know, Butch. But in the 2000 elections, Washington went for Gore. Why? Because the Seattle area (largely a refuge for colonists from California, lead in part by Congresscritter and resident lunatic Jim McDermott) went that way. I think three (two?) counties went Democrat --- every other county went Republican.

And guess where the majority of the State's population lives? Yep....in the Seattle area.

What I am hoping is that this time, all those armchair Republicans get off their duffs and vote!

D'you hear, Washington? Go out there and VOTE! Republican, preferably, but just VOTE!

I just this second got home from voting. I voted in ward 4 in Beverly Massachusetts, a major left wing redoubt. There was no line no wait, I was in and out in less than 10 minutes. Voted for Bush, the Republican challanger to our state rep, our incumbunt Republican County Sheriff all the others were un-opposed Dems so I voted for none of them. My polling place is sort of out in the woods so there were only four people carrying signs outside; 2 for Kerry and 2 for Mary Grant our left wing state rep.

Jeffs,

San Diego is a largely a refuge for colonists from Washington and everywhere else these days, mostly military guys. Sadly for you, I think we've got lots of your Republicans. Sadly for us, we've got lefty Los Angeles and the Bay Area to cancel out our votes. We still have Arnold, though...

BTW, when I lived in Seattle, I caught all manner of grief for being openly Republican. "Celebrate Diversity" my ass.

I'm at a lovely party and feel like crying. Am really worried the media and DNC have taken our future. They sound positively ebullient every time the telly is turned on. Must find another interest other than politics and find a tolerable hijab.

Take heart, Charlotte! After this race is a done deal and locked up tight for W, we can all stop worrying about presidential elections for at least 3 or 4 weeks.

Thanks for the optimism, Butch. But are you saying that, even were Bush to somehow salvage a win out of tonight, we need to start worrying about Hillary in a month?

Never tried either the yellow or blue ones, btw.

The election results are in!!! And it looks like Dewey has defeated Truman!!!

Bill Clinton is running around his house with a massive hard-on...Hillarious Hillary stops him and explains that it's "e-L-ection" day!

Never thought I'd care so much about who wins an election in another country, but the times have certainly changed.

If I wasn't at work I'd consider having a beer right about now!

I'm calling it.

A politician is going to win

Just got back from a beer run. Bush looking good in most swing states. Doing surprisingly well in Michigan and Minnesota. (That's like Bush doing well in Canada.) New Hampshire, at this time, not called yet to boot.

A speck of red amongst that pretty blue all along the Atlantic Seaboard? Perish the thought...

Funny thing about that exit poll data.

Around 12:00 noon Pacific Standard Time, before the exit poll data showing a Kerry victory was released, Bush announced to a crowd that he was confident of victory, while Kerry announced that, regardless of the outcome, he was confident the people of the US would unite.

Later, around 4:00 pm PST, after the exit poll data was widely reported, it was Bush who sounded conciliatory (something about how, regardless of the outcome, he knows his supporters tried their best), and Kerry was the one boldly predicting victory.

Methinks maybe Bush (and Kerry) knew something the people who compiled the exit poll Drudge leaked did not.

i've got the champers ready but i don't want to jinx anything and will restrain myself from opening it until the numbers become a little clearer.... or i might as well drink it now because, either way, i'm not going to waste a bottle of alcohol!
luckily no work today, just some at-home work that i will presumeably not be doing.
i am sooo anxious, i haven't been able to sleep for the last 2 days.
just watching footage of the president at the white house, he looks relaxed, albeit a bit tired.

I want to thank Australia for reelecting the Howard government. If he had been defeated, I believe that there would have been a better than even chnace Bush might have lost. I do recognize that he might have even overcome that adversity. But it was nice not to have to overcome it.

Jim Russell from West Memphis and a part of Arkansas for Bush.

P.S. I should go to bed, but I am not sure I can sleep. It is 2:45 a.m. here.

I wandered over to the DU nuthouse to see what was being thrown up. I was terribly disappointed to find that not only could "guest" viewers not see the threads, but they had closed the registration page until "after election day".

Anybody know a DU username/password? Should be lots of suicides to prevent over there...

Well, last night I drank all that Veuve Cliquot I promised. Has a monster hangover ever felt better? How sweet it is!