Tim Blair

tim, you need to consult the Magic Eight Ball.

My only prediction is lots of inner-city Sydneyites complaining next week, 'I don't know anyone who voted for the Coalition..!?

I'll put five dollars on Kucinich.

Just a reminder if foreign policy is your issue of why you should
vote for Howard

Yeah, foreign policy like "it's alright for Indonesia to bomb us".

Or to say "we have the right to pre-emptively strike at terrorists", sit on your hands for the 2 years since the Bali bombing and then create a policy on the run during an election campaign.

Rudd vs Downer - it's a no-brainer.

Sorry above link does not work:
VOTE FOR HOWARD

Howard. If Latham were about to win, CNNi would be all over it ("another of Bush's Coalition Partners is about to fall")
Stay strong. Me, I'll have my eye on the Afghan elections.
To paraphrase LT. GEN DeLong(with his hattip to Steyn): "this ain't like Vietnam, where you can come home with your tail between your legs. This is for real.)
OK. Excerpting myself from your election.

Shaun,
Mr Howard said more than a year ago that if there was no other choice, he would authorise a pre-emptive strike. No policy on the run there. I'd suggest reading what both parties would do to protect Australians and then start pointing the finger!

Tim:
I hope you're wrong and that you're just saying this to get more attention from Margo.

My money says that the loony left will lag behind by the number of ballot boxes they cant't stuff before the need to whack off overcomes them!.

All I've done is read Blair, Bunyip and a few others (MAAARGO). Now, I discover that I'm actually getting interested in OZ politics, which is strange for Texas. Our politicos suk (and are boring), besides we're all upside down up here, as all with brains know that the Aussies are upright (and true and reliable, so are not about to just fall off the Earth!). No matter who wins in the individual or National elections, we wish you the best of luck, since you surely deserve it.

Why I will
VOTE Howard

Coalition 3-0. Howard-Bush-Blair. The Afghan and Iraqi elections will take care of themselves. Although I am pro-Tory, especially on domestic issues, the election of this trio will send a powerful message to the world. Take care of yourselves around election time and be well Australia.

I like Latham's ideas about bringing power back to the unions and geting rid of the workplace relations acts, which the Liberal government was reponsible for. The only good that ever came from individual contract was the ability to keep award wages down and inflation in its place but what about unemployment? We have a major unemployment problem in Australia, its time we looked at expansionary policies like more government spending and overlook the debate about a budget surplus. Finally about Howard's interest rates debate, we all know that the RBA sets interest rates and theres no way that inflation will increase that much in the short term for interest rates to rise substantially. I say its time for a change its time to vote labour...I m jus sick of these Liberals giving first preference to middle class and business class indiviuals who can afford private health insurance and that... what about the working class individual who doesn't have a stable job and has to work two casual jobs just to get by.

Perk up Tim
If the Libs can take Bass and one other timber seat it makes Labour's task impossible.
Labour then has to win 2 more on the mainland to maintain the status quo and another 1 to stay in the game.
Win 3 for a gain of 1. That's bad maths for Lifelong.

Today Howard can blindside Lifelong with forest policy. He can get hold of the timber workers votes by promising timber jobs not generous redundancy. He can keep the doctors wives with the right 50,000 ha. No room for error tho.

The Coalition will have a nett loss of no more than three seats and will be returned. Bad news for a right wing deathbeast like yourself, Tim.

But cheer up, Howard will walk within 18 months. Cue the Abbott and Costello Show. By 2007, the Coalition will be as electable as something I just stepped in. The Libs will join their coalition partners in the slow ride to political oblivion. So it's not all bad news, eh?

One thing: Let's all agree to attack the Greens whenever the chance arises over the next three years. I'll be damned if I'm going to let these hemp-wearing hippie clowns stride about the political stage without scrutiny.

Love your work.

AAARGH! My predictions are identical to Mago Kingston- does this mean our brains are wired the same way? Next I'll lose all grasp of basic rules of spelling, grammar and punctuation; looks like it's Fairfax or the maximum security home for the perpetually bewildered for me.

I suspect that the amount of coverage this election receives in the US will be contingent on the result. If Labor wins, the result will be front page news in the LAT, NYT, WaPo, etc. Therefore, if I wake up Saturday and I don't read anything about the election in the paper, I'll know that Howard won.

I think howard will win with a slightly reduced, or the same majority. Having said that, in the next election the coalition will get heavily shot-down. As any experienced, knowledgeable economist would tell you, the government of the time has only a miniscule effect on interest rates. And interest rates will rise after this election - believe it! With people having massive mortgages due to the housing demand caused in part by the coalitions 1st home-buyers grant, a comparatively small increase in interest rates now will seriously hurt people (more than when house prices and mortgages were lower, but interest rates were higher in the 90's). People will continue to be taxed heavily to provide government surpluses, while at the same time domestic foriegn debt (which under howard has tripled) will continue to rise. At this point, any multitude of things could go wrong - my point being the coalition will win, but better be ready for a test over the coming term...

The Coalition will win, they are further ahead than Newspoll suggests as Newspoll always lags,
and there will be a massive swing to the Coalition in the final days.

The Coalition needs to hammer this home massively.

You have mischievously mistaken my campaigning for a prediction tim, but what the heck: like you, I do predict a Labor win, but in the small to comfortable range rather than one of landslide dimensions. Fingers crossed.

I hope you are wrong too.

How can CS cross his fingers when, judging by his blog, both hands are permanently occupied whacking off?

Generally when I make predictions I make a complete ball up and get it all wrong and the oppsite happens. So bearing that in mind I predict the following:

- Latham to win a Australian election and immediately withdraw troops from Iraq
- Kerry to do likewie after winning a landlide
- Saddam Hussein to win Iraqi elections
- I'm sacked from my job and end up working for much less pay in some terrible new job

Generally when I make predictions I make a complete ball up and get it all wrong and the oppsite happens. So bearing that in mind I predict the following:

- Latham to win a Australian election and immediately withdraw troops from Iraq
- Kerry to do likewie after winning a landlide
- Saddam Hussein to win Iraqi elections
- Margo is appointed Editor of the SMH
- I'm sacked from my job and end up working for much less pay in some terrible new job

Howard to win although I won't be voting for my Lib MP - Andrew Southcott, a safe-seatwarmer if ever there was one. Labor candidate is Chloe (daughter of Mem) Fox, one of the spoilt pseudo-intellectuals who infest the ALP these days. What a poor choice.

If I were in the most marginal Lib-held seat, Adelaide, I'd probably vote for Trish Worth since I'd rather have a moderate voice like hers in government than out.

Hindmarsh too close to call but probably retained by the Libs.

Sadly, Trish Draper (the Member for Makin Whoopee) will probably retain her seat despite being the most deserving of getting tipped out.

Hoping to see Malcolm Turnbull fall on his arse and make a particularly virulent concession speech. Ditto Pauline "Dancin'" Hanson.

Peter Garrett will probably win but it's just more nails for his credibility coffin anyway.

Greens to hold BOP in the Senate possibly with a Family Fist, er, First senator in there as well.

Coalition to win, I think by more than a narrow margin. Latham presents as nuts (and is).

"Eraser" above seems unaware that unemployment is much lower under the Coaltion than it was under labor.

Howard to win. Libs to win Bass, and every other seat in the country to remain status quo.

Labour by alot more than most think.

Latho's looking the goods. Growing in stature. The Rodent, he's a man of the past!

Do not despair, dear Tim, the Coalition is bound to win.

Eraser sounded like a 5th columnist to me. He/she would have been better off talking about underemployment, or precarious employment, or the whopping percentage of under 20K PA positions among the jobs created in the last 8 years.

While the Liberals will win I'll tip this smokie -

Labor to win Moore (currently held by Mal Washer). It's not a marginal, but it will fall.

Tanner to lose Melbourne to the Greens.

The Coalition may poll as little as 49% but they will hang in there.

Socialist Alliance to poll less than 0.5% nationwide, and less than 0.05% in Western Australia. Which, given the campaign they've run, is more than they deserve.

Sue, this is due mainly to the implementation of work for the dole (which im not against) and the increase in part time and casual positions rather than full-time positions (which i am against)...

The Coalition are the better for Government. But F*** them! For the first time in my life I am voting Labour all the way.

Howard led a hate campaign against ordinary decent Aussies, stealing our SPORTING TOYS!

Then the slush fund of 'Australians for Honest Politics'... puke. Trying to bring the rest of Australia's standards down to the moral gutter of Labor and Liberal preselections.

To defend my honour, but against all my political and economic beliefs I am voting LABOR.

PUCE 2 WIN! ERECT PUCE!

I want Guy Sebastian to win! We luv u Guy!

Coalition to win Bass and Braddon (or Lyons). That will be the difference. Latham will lose the election because of his forestry policy.

The plunge on Michael Ferguson (Lib)in Bass has been Fine Cotton like.

am voting Labour all the way

No surprise that people to dumb to spell "Labor" would vote for it.

I don't follow Oz politics much, but I'm somewhat familiar with Chris Sheil's work.

If he says "landslide for Latham", then you can rest assured it will be a landslide all right...for Howard.

Reps: Howard narrowly
Senate: Pauline to have balance of power
Hang on tight!

Goodface-

I also live in Boothby about 50 metres from a bulk-billing only doctors surgery. Chloe Fox pamphleted the whole street with anti-Liberal notes implying it was impossible to find a bulk-billing doctor under Howard, leaving most of the people in the apartment complex with a smile on their face. If Ms Fox actaully wanted to represent the electorate, she might start by checking just how close some of them live to the non-existent bulk-billing doctors!

Hah!
Suckers!
I got $20,000 on good odds on Micheal Ferguson (Lib candidate for Bass) just before I announced the Tasmanian forest policy.

So while Little Johnny goes back to work after the election I'll be off to Vegas with a lazy $100 G's to play with ... Bob might be joining me - he might be tree-hugger, but he sure knows how to shoot craps ...

My tips, for what they're worth . . . .

ALP to hang on to Melbourne - I live in the seat, and will be voting Liberal, with 2nd pref to family First and 3rd pref to Greens, just to spite Lindsay Tanner. They won't pick up any more seats in Melbourne. Christian Zahra may hang on to his seat (forgot what it's called), which is notionally Liberal following a redistribution.

ALP may pick up Parramatta, and might help Peter King over the line in Wentworth, which I don't think will upset John Howard too much.

Nothing for the ALP in Qld or WA, but will probably pick up Adelaide in SA.

ALP to lose one or two in Tasmania.

Coalition to win in lower house.

Senate pretty much the same as now . . . . more Greens, fewer Democrats, and probably a Family First senator or two filling in holes otherwise left by Len Harris and Brian Harradine.

Longer term - Howard to hand over to Costello soon after passing Bob Hawke as second-longest serving PM. Likewise, John Anderson hands over to Mark Vaile. Costello, Vaile and Abbott rejuvenate the government. Labour learn that they have to get someone who's actually run something out in front, so they draft Peter Beattie as federal leader and the 2007 election might just be a contest.

Beattie may be indicted by 2007. He's in deep shit over Greg Maddock topping himself. If the Qld CJC wasn't so tame he'd be facing charges now- my brother is acting for the Maddock family, and there may be a private prosecution of the Cheshire Cat and Terry "apple through a tennis racket" Mackenroth.

"We all know that the RBA sets interest rates and theres no way that inflation will increase that much in the short term for interest rates to rise substantially."

Balls.

The RBA sets rates in response to ecomonomic indicators. So what do you think influences those?

But while we're saying 'Governments don't do nada re interest rates', and 'Howard lies', go look up the impact of Government Bond prices.

Of course Governments can influence interest rates.

Only an ignoramus or a partisan hack would say otherwise.

Enmore Station prognosticators see it thus:

Uptight Bastard Joe: ALP by 8
Boy Genius Jeff: Too close to call

Dunno about you, but election time is just another reason to get hammered for mine.

I never over drink, I tell 'em it just evaporates from the glass.

LET'S MAMBO!!

Spell Labour any way you want....just as long as you know what it means if Lifelong gets up.

Habib — "Fairfax OR the maximum security home for the perpetually bewildered"?!

I agree with Sue, unemployment has decreased currently at 5.9% well below the 10% levels of the 90's, but can we say that the decrease has come about due to coalition policies or is it due to the economic boom that the howard government has presided over. We all know that in a boom unemployment falls.
What worries me is the increase in teenage unemployment and the long term unemployed. There ae different types of unemployment and the one that has increased is structural unemployment although cyclical unemployment has fallen.
Major labour market reforms have to be introduced in order to increase productivity and demand in the economy to combat this problem. What I'm saying is that the coalitions labour market programs have not worked and its time to try a different approach.

Howard by two this time, Labor up next time.

God.....this is where the nasty little neocon cretins come to curse and howl. Don't worry, you'll all get jobs spruiking for Rupert one day.....Labor by 20.

I'm really a loveable neocon cretin Sean.

Bet you are Pete, just as I am a little gropable lefty.

This is election is way to close for my liking, time to break out the heavy artillery.

PAY HEED!!
{the wind starts howling, thunder off in the distance, my eyes light up like the rear of a 4WD}

I'm warning the pollsters now.

Don't make me break out the "malocchio curse", ok.

If it looks close I'm going to use it to get Latham up. It's never failed me before and if it gets too close, Johnny is going to cop it.

Save yourself something Collingwood FC has had to endure this year. Sorry Tim, it was me. I've decided to fess up about it. I was at a Swans game and accidentally "malocchioed" them by mistake. I'm a Sydneysider, I hate the Swans. Always next year.

Before you all blame me for Souths, it wasn't me. Someone over at Redfern has been playing with the curse, without parental supervision.

Take a hike Johnny, save yourself the "malocchio".

My predictions:

2% swing to ALP, but Coalition retain the majority of their marginal seats. Coalition win by 4 seats. Greens to hold balance of power in the Senate. Family First to pick up 1 Senate Seat on preferences.

Latham to stay on as leader of the ALP. Howard to announce his retirement prior to the next election in October, 2007. Costello to beat Abbott for the Liberal leadership. Latham to be elected to power in 2007 by defeating Costello with a good campaign in the marginals.

AFL: 2005 premiers Port Adelaide, 2006 premiers Brisbane, 2007 premiers Sydney.

NRL: 2005 premiers Roosters, 2006 premiers Bulldogs, 2007 premiers Penrith.

Coalition is surging and will win by 24 to 30 seats.

Coalition will pick up 5 in Tasmania and a 10 or so in WA and QLD
Latham will never be Prime Minister. The worst campaign in living memory, this greasy slimy turds will be flushed down the toilet.

Predictions are useless, with most just trying to big-note themselves by being Mr Nostradamus.

Having read this thread, I won't make any new prediction, but I do prefer this analysis over others.

I hope Steve is proved right.

Interesting to see how the tips on the Independents pan out.

But, going by Andrens 25% in Calare, and neither Katter nor the other one who I have forgotten will lose their seat.

Can't see King getting in.

All of these opinions and predictions are interesting and well-considered, but if Kucinich wins I'll be one rich dude.

If little Johnny makes it again Im leaving the country. Sorry, John but you will not increase our technically skilled until you improve our lot. We're screwed to the wall now.
Labor by 2

I hope Labor can pull this one out. 8 years of 'Honest' John is 8 years too much. If he wins again it will be a black day IMO.

thanks for the link. must have been becos I sneered at a prominent Margo booster a short while ago ;-)

Neat post. It's amazing to see how each pundit's hopes and fears affect their predictions - some a lot, some not much.

It is about time Labor got in, Mark Latham is young, fresh and Positive. There are so many things I cannot stand about John Howard,
Where do I start? Here is my top ten.
1. Implimentation of GST
2. Uneccesary War in Iraq
3. Dreadful treatment of refugees in detention centres and allowing Australian detainees overseas to remain in prison without being charged.
4. The Children Overboard scandal
5. Policy to ruin the Forests of Tasmania
6 Constant ability to 'omit the truth from important issues.'
7. Constant sucking up and getting into the political bed with George Bush. This is Australia not the United States of Australia!
8. Funding of rich schools.
9. The desire to sell off Telstra and,
10. The erosion of Medicare.
Need I say any more!

9. The desire to sell off Telstra

That's bad? Wow, there are actually people who prefer their phone company to be a money-grubbing, state owned monopolist rather than a private one exposed to and forced to respond to market forces?

people are too dump tp understand john howard brought terrorist threat to australia and now there is no way out.

Not another word needed, Helen- you've convinced me that John Winston's the man!

Pray tell, Sweetie, whre is this "dump tp"? Is it a native-american inspired hippy residence in the middle of the Kyogle municipal refuse tip? I know Howard is harsh on welfare cheats, but to send terrorists to attack their humble hovels is a bit rich- i may have to rethink my voting decision.

I live in the marginal seat of Greenway in Sydney's north west. Last election you would have classed this area west but now there are thousand's of "McMansion's" being built in the area. Ed Husic the labor candidate is pretty much unknown in the area. Hes sent about 5 leaflets whereas the Liberal Candidate Louise Markus has sent a few a week. Another advantage for liberal is that Greenway is fast becoming the bible belt of Sydney. Louise Markus is a prominent member in the local Hillsong Church which has tens of thousands of members. And after saying all this i would bet this once very safe labor seat will go liberal and it was just the other week that shadow defence minister and former opposition leader, Kim Beazley said "If we dont win Greenway, we will lose the election" therefore i say the Coalition will win the election