October 05, 2004


Could anyone who was at the rehearsal for Mark Lathamís campaign launch in Brisbane please email me. (If you were at the rehearsal, I expect youíll know what this is about.) All confidences assured, etc.

Also, any bloggers who are yet to post their Australian election predictions should mail them in. Iíll put up a list tomorrow.

Posted by Tim Blair at October 5, 2004 03:35 PM

When is this "election" of yours, anyway, and will your Zionist masters allow it?

Posted by: Andrew at October 5, 2004 at 03:41 PM

October 9 (this Saturday). Yes, the Zionists have confirmed it :-P

Posted by: Richard at October 5, 2004 at 03:48 PM

No, I was not there. If I had been at the rehearsal or the "real thing", I would have taken much pleasure of slapping the face of the front row seated Rove McMannus. Who does that stupid twat think he is?

Posted by: Kate at October 5, 2004 at 04:01 PM

Howard holds all bar two of his current, but also picks up seats from Labor and the Green seat.
Coalition win by 24

Senate the Coalition keeps its current but also picks up one more in Queensland and one in WA. Greens pond scum and demos still have balance, but its dropping. Pond scum get one more in NSW. Demos lose 2 to the greens. One SA and the one in NSW.

Posted by: Todd at October 5, 2004 at 04:05 PM

Come on Tim, spread the news, whats the rumour?

Posted by: Todd at October 5, 2004 at 04:07 PM

I want to see a debate between Margo and Tim. That's not much to ask is it?

Posted by: Lofty at October 5, 2004 at 04:09 PM

Lofty, Todd: I'd love to see Margo vs Tim after the coalition gain 16 seats, assuming Margo can still speak.

Posted by: Alan Green at October 5, 2004 at 04:16 PM

In 2003 I predicted that all Coalition of the Willing parties would win their next elections. I updated this prediction last month.

I think these predictions have stood up pretty well.

Posted by: Jack Strocchi at October 5, 2004 at 04:35 PM

I will wait for John Howard's announcement for the Tasmanian forests before I make my predictions.

Posted by: rlyras at October 5, 2004 at 04:42 PM

My prediction: Coalition by 23 seats more than Labor. Coalition will pick up Stirling, Hasluck, Bass and Brisbane; but will lose Dobell and Herbert. Labor will regain the seat it lost to the Greens. The three independents will remain in place. That is Coalition 85, Labor 62, Independents 3.

Posted by: Jim at October 5, 2004 at 05:10 PM

I think we should stage a 'blogger brawl', get Tim, Glenn, Oliver Willis, etc all in a room with podiums, and have a California Recall-style debate!

Posted by: Aaron at October 5, 2004 at 05:15 PM

I actually think the ALP will get up on a 60/40 chance - once that happens it doesn't matter how big the margin is.

The Greens to have the balance of power in the Senate in either case - I never thought I would be sad to see the Australian Democrats take a pounding but heck, the Greens are just nuts.

Only 7% or whatever proportion of the elecorate are nuts, but its enough.

As to why I think the ALP will get up - sure, Australia is more prosperous and (I think) more internationally well recognised than I can recall in all my 32 years, BUT most people enjoying the fruits of this economy put it down to their own hard work. Mind you, it is the Governments fault in bad times (never your own) but people don't give enough credit to this Government on the economy.

Latham is new and shiny, and people might just feel like a change.

JDM out.

Posted by: JDM at October 5, 2004 at 05:28 PM

Forget it, Aaron. Only SorosDollars can bear the cost of catering for Oliver Willis.

Posted by: Sortelli at October 5, 2004 at 05:33 PM

The Australian Democrats - Better the Devil You Know.

It really should be the campaign platform.

Posted by: JBB at October 5, 2004 at 11:22 PM