October 03, 2004


At smh.com.au: Polls swing to Labor.

Also at smh.com.au: Polls favour coalition.

Saturday at smh.com.au: "In what will be a crushing blow to Labor's hopes, the latest Herald Poll by ACNielsen indicates Mr Cameron will retain his seat at next Saturday's election."

Sunday at smh.com.au: "The self-confessed adulterer Ross Cameron in Parramatta has angered voters so much that the poll reveals it could be turned into a safe Labor seat with a 60 per cent to 40 per cent second preference margin."

Posted by Tim Blair at October 3, 2004 03:51 AM

That last point is dodgy. While Labor would have a large margin, it could hardly be considered "safe" on the back of a freakish swing due to the peccadilloes of a particular MP.

Posted by: Robert at October 3, 2004 at 04:40 AM

The betting agencies have an easy win for Howard predicted.
And we know betting is more reliable than polls

Posted by: Genius at October 3, 2004 at 08:42 AM

The winds of change are blowing through the willows-ratty must be worried.
Labor has struck gold this week,and the public mood has shifted to a probable labor victory.
My straw poll of shopkeepers yesterday has confimed this.
Saw a double sided billboard on a trailer in a supermarket carpark in the seat of stirling yesterday.Some wag had used black electrical tape to put hitler moustaches on ratty and candidate keenan.

Posted by: marklatham at October 3, 2004 at 09:13 AM

Some wag had used black electrical tape to put hitler moustaches on ratty and candidate keenan.

Yeah, that seals it, Labor by 15 points.


Posted by: PW at October 3, 2004 at 10:08 AM

Yeah, PW, defacing of signs? Never seen that in a campaign before!

Actually, the ALP sign outside where I work has had devil horns drawn on it...

I guess that means this safe ALP seat is in danger!

Posted by: Quentin George at October 3, 2004 at 10:13 AM

Posters of the Green's pin up boy, Andrew Traitor Wilkie in Bennelong are getting some nice touch ups.

Labor's Nicole Campbells posters disappearing & John Howard's posters getting vandalised.

So guess alls fair at election time. No discrimination in Bennelong.

God, its dragged on. Come on 10/9/04. At least we won't see Maggot's fugly head around here anymore!


Posted by: NoItAll at October 3, 2004 at 11:44 AM

On my electorate the sitting (lib) member has had a couple of signs stole.

Signs for the labor candidate have had massive holes kicked though his face.

Unfortunately, no violence directed against Fred Nile for Senate signs yet.

Haven't seen signs for any other party.

Posted by: Andy at October 3, 2004 at 11:58 AM

and that of course should have read stolen.

Posted by: Andy at October 3, 2004 at 11:58 AM

Interesting and confusing data. I tend to trust ACNielsen and Newspoll (which both favour the Coalition) as these are both substantial corporations with high quality reputations to protect. Does any one know about the genesis of Tavener? I can't find them on the web.

Sample size also relevant perhaps, esp with ther Tavener data in the Sun Herald today with small sample size, 800 across 4 seats, 200 per seat on average. Also, that data is tracking the same group of voters across the campaign so the sampling is in fact not random or independent, which renders big problems to a statistician.

Posted by: Jim at October 3, 2004 at 01:07 PM

Yes, marklatham, "some wag" stuck moustaches on the sign.

(Good on ya, though.)

Posted by: Robert at October 3, 2004 at 02:17 PM

Its like the globalstar (or whatever it is called) in the Daily. Who?

Posted by: Andy at October 3, 2004 at 02:33 PM

Taverner is owned and run by Phillip Mitchell-Taverner, who was once boss of an outfit called Reark Research in Surry Hills, NSW. He was fired from Reark (or resigned in a huff) and set up Taverner in Reark's old premises after they moved to North Sydney.

I wouldn't take them too seriously.

Posted by: Fielding at October 3, 2004 at 03:14 PM

Centrebet still favours Howard.

Posted by: Sheriff at October 3, 2004 at 11:28 PM