Tim Blair

That last point is dodgy. While Labor would have a large margin, it could hardly be considered "safe" on the back of a freakish swing due to the peccadilloes of a particular MP.

The betting agencies have an easy win for Howard predicted.
http://www.sportspunter.com/betting?function=tournamentodds&team=Labour+Party&competitionid=59&tournament=Australian+Federal+Election
And we know betting is more reliable than polls
http://www.google.co.nz/search?q=cache:OQxJkexGvJUJ:faculty-gsb.stanford.edu/wolfers/Papers/AJPS%2520Three%2520Tools%2520Article.pdf+betting+elections+australia&hl=en

The winds of change are blowing through the willows-ratty must be worried.
Labor has struck gold this week,and the public mood has shifted to a probable labor victory.
My straw poll of shopkeepers yesterday has confimed this.
Saw a double sided billboard on a trailer in a supermarket carpark in the seat of stirling yesterday.Some wag had used black electrical tape to put hitler moustaches on ratty and candidate keenan.

Some wag had used black electrical tape to put hitler moustaches on ratty and candidate keenan.

Yeah, that seals it, Labor by 15 points.

Sheesh.

Yeah, PW, defacing of signs? Never seen that in a campaign before!

Actually, the ALP sign outside where I work has had devil horns drawn on it...

I guess that means this safe ALP seat is in danger!

Posters of the Green's pin up boy, Andrew Traitor Wilkie in Bennelong are getting some nice touch ups.

Labor's Nicole Campbells posters disappearing & John Howard's posters getting vandalised.

So guess alls fair at election time. No discrimination in Bennelong.

God, its dragged on. Come on 10/9/04. At least we won't see Maggot's fugly head around here anymore!

GO THE ROOSTERS!!

On my electorate the sitting (lib) member has had a couple of signs stole.

Signs for the labor candidate have had massive holes kicked though his face.

Unfortunately, no violence directed against Fred Nile for Senate signs yet.

Haven't seen signs for any other party.

and that of course should have read stolen.

Interesting and confusing data. I tend to trust ACNielsen and Newspoll (which both favour the Coalition) as these are both substantial corporations with high quality reputations to protect. Does any one know about the genesis of Tavener? I can't find them on the web.

Sample size also relevant perhaps, esp with ther Tavener data in the Sun Herald today with small sample size, 800 across 4 seats, 200 per seat on average. Also, that data is tracking the same group of voters across the campaign so the sampling is in fact not random or independent, which renders big problems to a statistician.

Yes, marklatham, "some wag" stuck moustaches on the sign.

(Good on ya, though.)

Its like the globalstar (or whatever it is called) in the Daily. Who?

Taverner is owned and run by Phillip Mitchell-Taverner, who was once boss of an outfit called Reark Research in Surry Hills, NSW. He was fired from Reark (or resigned in a huff) and set up Taverner in Reark's old premises after they moved to North Sydney.

I wouldn't take them too seriously.

Centrebet still favours Howard.