Tim Blair

MANNE IN HIS PRIME

Fairfax circulation barrier Robert Manne likes to keep things simple, so he carefully limits the amount of information to which his readers are exposed:

While it proved relatively easy to remove Saddam Hussein, to introduce even the foundations of democracy proved a considerably more difficult task. With the abolition of the Iraqi army and police force, law and order simply broke down. Largely because of robbery, rape and murder, 94 per cent of Iraqis surveyed said they now felt less secure than they had under the gruesome regime of Saddam.

Manne cited that same figure in an earlier piece:

In a recent Gallup poll, 94 per cent of Iraqis said they felt more insecure now than under Saddam; 86 per cent said they or their families felt fearful about leaving their homes at night.

Gallup’s poll wasn’t all that recent when Manne first mentioned it on November 17; it had been conducted between August 28 and September 4. More significantly, it didn’t reflect the broad views of Iraqis, as Manne has twice claimed. This USA Today item explains:

The 1,178 in-home interviews were all in Baghdad, so the results are not a scientific glimpse of all Iraqis' opinions.

Omitted from Manne’s latest column is the same survey’s finding that “most Baghdad residents thought getting rid of Saddam Hussein was worth the hardships they are enduring.” In fact, 67% of Baghdad residents surveyed thought Iraq will be in better condition five years from now than it was before the US-led invasion.

The number that expected things to get worse? Just eight per cent. Another early survey found a similarly tiny number wanting to return to life under Saddam:

We pressed the issue a little further: “If you HAD to choose, would you rather live under Saddam or the Americans?” The good news is that very few want Saddam back – just 7 per cent.

”Good news” is Manne’s least favourite phrase. He claimed in his November 17 piece that, according to the Gallup poll, “only 40% believe democracy can work in Iraq”. But that’s not what Gallup itself found:

Respondents were most supportive of those systems that would seemingly provide the most public participation: either a multiparty parliamentary democracy, or a system based on the Islamic concept of shura (whereby leaders work through a process of consultation and public consensus) ... A follow-up question asked respondents to identify the one form of government they would most like to see established in Iraq. There is no clear leader, but the largest segment, 39%, prefers multiparty parliamentary democracy. A system based on the Islamic concept of shura comes in second, with 29% in favor.

Manne seems to have interpreted “39% prefer multiparty parliamentary democracy” to mean “only 40% believe democracy can work in Iraq”. Moreover, Manne declined to mention that 53.1% of those surveyed would find a multiparty parliamentary democracy “acceptable”.

A broader, more up-to-date survey (involving 3,000 respondents across Iraq) reveals an even greater desire for democracy:

Asked to choose the form of government Iraq needed now, 90% of those interviewed - in their own homes - said an Iraqi democracy, and overwhelmingly rejected the idea that democracy was only for Westerners and would not work in Iraq.

Deal with it, Robert. People like democracy. They tend to prefer accurate information, too.