November 03, 2004


• Natalie Solent is much more confident of a Bush win after considering historic underpolling for conservatives. This is a standard feature in Australian elections, and was evident in the last -- perhaps to a greater degree than usual.

• has been ordered to move on.

• Joseph Bottum on South Dakota Tom: "Last night, Tom Daschle threw his campaign into the shredder. What is it that makes South Dakota politicians do this kind of thing? There must be something in that Missouri River water that makes even the best of political pros tuck their thumbs into their armpits and squawk like demented chickens."

• Burning Bush! Well, burning Bush campaign vans, anyway.

• Sheila O'Malley has a November surprise.

• Matt Welch supplies ten last-minute reasons for voting against George Bush.

• Ken Layne supplies one reason, after a spitefully ill-timed Reno visit by Dick Cheney: "Thanks for blocking off half the town while my wife and I tried to get downtown for a childbirth class. Good work, hater!"

• Andrew Sullivan promises to support the winning candidate ... the same way he supported both (at different times) during the past few years.

• Vote for Bush! Avoid speeding tickets!

• Ever get Oliver Hardy and Stan Laurel mixed up? One’s fat, one’s skinny, but which is which? Andrew Bolt has the same problem with Osama stan Laurel and Michardy Moore.

• Colby Cosh projects a media projection: "There is a tiny but not negligible chance that we will never know who won, and that the republic will devolve into a bloodied quilt of warring statelets ..."

Posted by Tim Blair at November 3, 2004 02:48 AM

MoveOn at the polls: confirmed in Wauwatosa, WI. I spotted the activist at her table as I drove in. She was positioned 50 feet from the main doors into City Hall.

She looked very lonely and cold. I called the city voter desk, but I had to leave a message in their voicemail.

Posted by: hbchrist at November 3, 2004 at 02:53 AM

Daschle's actions reminds me of when McGovern lost his re-election bid after tanking his presidential campaign; I went to college in South Dakota at the time.

McGovern was losing, big time. So his ploy was to promise free rides and meals to anyone that voted.....on the Indian reservations. Free food, not vote buying? Oh, please!

A last minute lawsuit shut down the operation as violating polling laws. This happened in sometime in the period of 1975-1978; I'd have to Google for details.

Some things just never change. I'd love to see Daschle defeated, but I hope this is something that goes with being a Democrat in power, and isn't a curse that goes with the office.

Posted by: The Real JeffS at November 3, 2004 at 03:04 AM

Tim or someone... what was the polling like in Australia just prior to the election? Was Latham even close? Was Howard consistently ahead in the past few months? Can someone compare them?

Posted by: Dash at November 3, 2004 at 03:12 AM

It's Wednesday there, right? Who won?

Posted by: Lefty in San Diego at November 3, 2004 at 03:12 AM

The price is moving at Betfair. GWB has moved from 1.78 to 1.71 in the past 30 minutes. It has been stable for hours prior to that.

Godnight JFK and thanks for playing.

Posted by: Dean McAskil at November 3, 2004 at 03:20 AM

GWB has just punched through 1.70. Now 1.69.

Posted by: Dean McAskil at November 3, 2004 at 03:23 AM

Relax, Dean - its just Bushies hedging, so they can buy a sixer if their guy goes down.

Posted by: R C Dean at November 3, 2004 at 03:28 AM

Dash, Latham was tied or slightly ahead in most polls; our Tim was expecting him to win.

Of course, he did self-destruct in the last week before the election with his pandering to the Greens. That was the point when I knew we'd won.

Posted by: Pixy Misa at November 3, 2004 at 03:29 AM

I think the $500k matched in the last hour or so will buy more than a sixer. The market is testing the 1.70 level.

Posted by: Dean McAskil at November 3, 2004 at 03:36 AM

Pixy thanks, was it a big time self destruct ala Howard Deans YEARGHH!!!

Bah I'm just tense for the election. I really can't imagine more Americans voting for Kerry, yet I'm nervous they will.

I remember reading Tim expecting Latham to win and that's how I'm feeling now. Ugh.

Posted by: Dash at November 3, 2004 at 03:41 AM

Just voted in Nevada about 10 am local time. The polling place was packed with people, but they had a large number of machines so people were quickly moving in and out. Driving to the precinct, I only saw Bush/Cheney signs in the local neighborhood.

This year there was a technology improvement I had never seen before. So the precinct workers could compare signatures, my signature from the original voter registration card had been digitally printed next to signature line where I signed my name to vote.

For some reason, I was selected by computer to show my ID which I do not object to. I just wish everyone had to verify their identity.

Posted by: perfectsense at November 3, 2004 at 04:15 AM

"I really can't imagine more Americans voting for Kerry, yet I'm nervous they will."

You're right to be nervous. It's way too early for a taste of the results, but the mile-long lines at the polls in big cities (I've seen film from Milwaukee, Philadelphia, and Miami so far) can't be good news for Bush.

I hope Bush wins, but either way, please, God, let there be a CLEAR winner.

Posted by: Mike at November 3, 2004 at 04:19 AM

Dash, what happened was Latham tried to sew up the enviro-loony vote by promising to stop logging of forests - in key Labor districts where many of the Labor voters work in the timber industry. That pissed the workers off royally, and it showed.

Posted by: Pixy Misa at November 3, 2004 at 04:27 AM

A big reason for the unpolled Howard landslide in Aus. was his supporters had long given up on revealing to anyone how they would vote. Once one's been shouted at and abused by lefties one quickly resolves to keep their voting intentions private. Hence pollsters and cabbies were kept in the dark.

However, when the time came, these 'undecided' voters entered the polling booth with a firm intent to punish !

Posted by: jafa at November 3, 2004 at 05:07 AM

My favorite restaurant promised that, if I would vote for their favorite in the Sheriff's race, if he ever arrested me, the restaurant would give me two (2) baloney sandwiches. Is that vote buying? I felt it was a civic contribution. I'd go straight to avoid a baloney sandwich...

Posted by: AH at November 3, 2004 at 06:11 AM

About that eye-rolling shit. I'm a native of SoDak and I guarantee that the Lakota are NOT a bunch of pussies who would be intimidated by mere eye-rolling. To even suggest such a thing is disgusting (them injuns.. they need whities help!) and may very well cost him the election. Fuckin asshole.

Posted by: Lydia at November 3, 2004 at 06:13 AM

Ken Layne is obviously still suffering from that blow to the head or whatever it is he received during the RNC. I'm surprised he didn't call Cheney a redneck nigger-hating sumbitch, also. Par for the course.

Posted by: ken at November 3, 2004 at 06:17 AM

I don't know about you guys, but Matt Welch REALLY moved me. I mean, it turns out that Bush has alienated the international community, which, of course, has immense bearing in deciding whether something is right or wrong. I was really stunned to find that out at the last minute, and it made me re-consider my previous beliefs.

The clincher was when I found out later today that John Kerry SERVED IN VIETNAM.

Too bad I already mailed in my ballot for W, or I'd change it today. DAMN YOU BOOOSH I HAVE BEEN DISENFRANCHISED.

Posted by: Sortelli at November 3, 2004 at 07:31 AM

Ken Layne used to have comments, didn't he? IIRC, he had them when he called Zell Miller a "nigger-hating" racist. I wonder why he dropped them. Couldn't be because of posts criticizing him for that? Nah.

BTW, Zell's great speech at the RNC is still up at Fox here.

Posted by: Jim C. at November 3, 2004 at 03:49 PM


Surely you're not suggesting that Andrew Sullivan plays both teams? Is that the reason for his admiration of John Kerry?

Posted by: Clem Snide at November 3, 2004 at 09:04 PM