Tim Blair

I too beleive that Bush will win. He'll win the popular vote by a small (but not VERY small) margin, and he'll win the Electoral College votes by at least 30.

Basically I think it will be somewhat like the Australian election result: a challenger who's very popular with the media; an incumbent whom the ingelligensia and celebrities loathe; most of the media saying that it's "too close to call"; but on the night, it turns out to be a more convincing win to GWB than any of the polls had predicted.

I agree that there will be many similarities between Australia and USA elections, though I'm not as certain of the outcome as I was with Australia. (Centrebet only has $1.60 for Bush, $2.20 Kerry)

Many "undecided" really mean "I'm conservative and so used to being told how evil I am that I reflexively hide what I am as a relfex action."

My reflexes look to be overactive

I bet on Bush for reasons that Richard mentioned.I'm feeling nervous but my gut says Bush.

It seems John Quiggin, based on the Dixville Notch result, has noted an 8% swing to Kerry and from this concludes Kerry will romp it in.

Just how many more million votes have to be counted?

8% swing in Dixville would equate to 2 votes. I sure hope Quiggin doesn't get paid for election analysis.

Bush will win and it will be fairly decisive. E.C. Bush 335 Kerry 203. The undecideds and soft Kerry supporters won't be able to go through with it when they're in the booth alone. No peer pressure, no one watching, just you, your flimsy pro-Kerry rationalizations, and a deep and abiding understanding that Bush may be clumsy, but he has balls of steel and he really, really wants to kill terrorists. They will grit their teeth and vote for Bush and leave relieved that they chose security over popularity.

Whatever the outcome of this particular election, the dinosaurs have had their day.

The MSM and the authoritarian left presume to tell us all what to think, and even how to vote. Their power has gone and all that is left is a rising crescendo of despairing screeches.

MSM to Blogdom = Dinosaurs to Mammals

What a long and pointless post from our little troll charlemagne.

Wasn't he banned?

Pity.

Mop up the floor when you're done, Charlemagne. This guy aware that while Undecideds go 2/3rd for the challenger on congressional races, thay more often break evenly for presidential ones?

Bush down to $1.55 at Centrebet in the past few hours.

For odds roundup click here

(Hands on hips)

"Right, that does it - which one of you turkeys voted for Nader? Come on - own up!"

Doesn't Mark Steyn live in New Hampshire? It wasn't HIM who cast the Nader vote, was it?

It wasn't HIM who cast the Nader vote, was it?

Outed!

"8% swing in Dixville would equate to 2 votes. I sure hope Quiggin doesn't get paid for election analysis."

Impressive grasp of arithmetic, Quentin. Kerry gained exactly 2 votes on last time.

Now perhaps you might like to read Tim's post, read mine, and look up "irony" in the dictionary.

I think this will be a big win for Bush: 300+ electoral college votes, a big popular vote, even 55% or more based on red states going redder than red, and gains in the legislature including John Thune in and Tom Daschle, arch-obstructionist, out.

That could be just my hopes talking. But I guessed too conservatively regarding Howard's win. I thought that would be by only two seats and that he could not possibly get a senate majority. So I'm going to hang way out there this time. :)

C'mon John, I was only having a little rib.

Irony eh?

i·ro·ny
n. pl. i·ro·nies
- The use of words to express something different from and often opposite to their literal meaning.
- An expression or utterance marked by a deliberate contrast between apparent and intended meaning.
- A literary style employing such contrasts for humorous or rhetorical effect.
- Incongruity between what might be expected and what actually occurs: “Hyde noted the irony of Ireland's copying the nation she most hated” (Richard Kain).
- An occurrence, result, or circumstance notable for such incongruity.
Dramatic irony.
Socratic irony.

Now I'm no academic, but I don't really think what you said fits any of those definitions.

The second point, perhaps, but that would be stretching it.

Maybe if Bush lost New Hampshire by those two votes, and then lost the election because of New Hampshire, then that would be irony.

Meanwhile, the lefties at The Iraq War Was Wrong Blog are still struggling with the basics ...

John Kerry sitting in the White House is akin to charlemagne's appearance in this blog. Neither makes any sense. Even if the race runs as closely as predicted (thus solidifying my belief that 1/2 of the US resides in the under 70 IQ level), I still hold firm that Bush will achieve victory (both popular and electoral.) charlemane, will you also promise to move to France at the conclusion of this race?

Quoting the dictionary, Quenty? Language is fluid baby. The neocons - kinds rigid people, like you - tried to wrap everything up, even freedom of speech. Seems like you're about to relegated ot the dustbin of context.

What-the-fuck? Put down the bong charlie. It was a pedantic response to Quiggin's request that I look up "irony" in the dictionary..

As for the rest of your post...well, the less said, the better.

And I don't know where you get the idea I'm a neo-con.

"Look again at the polling on people who have voted early in FL and IOWA - it's over before it begins!"

I wonder what could have kept Bush supporters out of the polls in the early voting.

That's so sad. You're already excited over an election you have no hope of winning. Tonight is going to be very hard for you. My hope is that we take NJ and FL by 8:00 p.m. EST so that you can go to bed early and your misery isn't strung out over the rest of a perfectly good evening.

[Dissent crushed. The Management.]

I've heard exactly the opposite, that undecideds in Florida are breaking towards Bush. Who the hell knows, we'll see tomorrow.

If the U.S population goes for Kerry I'll personally accept that maybe they know what they're doing. Pull out of the WOT and let the terrorists go nuts? Is that wise? Is the oppression and murder of foriegners by the million none of America's business? Maybe, I dunno.

Should Iran have nukes? Should jihadi throat-cutters and car-bombers across the planet be given a reason to celebrate? I don't think so but the American people will decide tomorrow and as a general rule their judgement has been pretty good for the last three centuries.

One thing I'm pretty sure of, Kerry will be an utterly spineless and weak president who's actions will be dictated by grasping personal ambition and contempt for the people he rules. That he'll betray the Iraqi people is a no-brainer, he'll betray them in an instant and without losing a second's sleep. I really think he combines the worse aspects of Clinton and Carter, and it really is a weird turn of fate that has brought this arrogant, mediocre political whore and senatorial nobody within striking distance of the most important job on the planet.

Still, if he's the decision, here are some things you WON'T be hearing from me:

"Americans are morons"

"Americans are brainless sheep easily led and deserve whatever disaster now befalls them"

"Democracy is finished in AmeriKKKa"

"This situation reminds me of Germany 1938"

I expect to hear all that and much, much worse from the Left if Bush wins.

"kerry is landslide ... maaate!" - chris sheil

Bush has a narrow lead in Ohio so far, 49.87% to 49.12%, according to Command Post.

The futures markets have spoken. Kerry is obliterated.

Tradesports.com traders are asking 43.4c for Kerry contracts and 55c for Bush. Been 45/55'ish all day though.

Goodbye Kerry... 'ya dickhead'.

charlemagne: Here's the man on your early turnout myth.

Do not sweat the stories about Democrats outdoing GOPers in terms of early turnout, especially in IA and FL. The number of early voters in IA in the Des Moines Register survey was something like 90. The number of early voters in FL in the Gallup survey was something like 150. While these numbers are large enough to draw inferences about the population, the margin of error is exceedingly high. The Dems know this. They are clinging to these numbers purely for spin purposes.

So solly cholly. The American Prospect? Why not Pravda? Don't they have people to spin the flaming crash of your towering candidate?

I'm off to vote. Bush wins! Bush wins!

Is Bush really down that much in early voting in Florida and Iowa?
There was a link for that on drudgereport but then it disapeared. Maybe for a reason.
Does anyone have any other source for this?

nevermind.
My answer has been questioned.
I was worried for a moment.

The Princeton guy is kidding himself if he thinks the turnout effect will favour Kerry. It's going to look like this:

Republicans 50% of public, 75% turnout, 53.57% of voters
Pro-war Democrats 25% of public, 50% turnout, 17.86% of voters
Anti-war Democrats 25%of public, 80% turnout, 28.57% of voters

resulting in a Bush win.

Guys, I'd appreciate it if you didn't respond to trolls like Charlemagne. I'll be deleting his posts as fast as possible, but (unlike Charlemagne, apparently) I have a full time job and have to work all day and really can't do much until I'm back home. (I can fool around here in lull times but playing around on the internet really isn't encouraged at my office.) Also, yes I'll be banning IPs. But in the mean time responding to trolls only encourages them.

45/55 is very close. $4 the odds you could of gotton on Latham in our election pan out to be 25/75

Bush will win,because the GOP have more money and are more sneaky.
I think that bush should be left to clear up his mess,in Iraq and in the economy.
The possibility of a draft in the US to supply the necessary 450,000 troops required to try and subdue Iraq could cruel the mad republicans forever.

D,

you answer has been questioned???

Blimey, goes on R and R and this happens :-)

NO matter what happens tonight - free Iraqis are hoping for a Bush win (well at least some of them are).

Free Iraqis Letter to the White House

The letter above was written by Sarmad at Road of Nation to our President. He asked me for contact information 3 weeks ago and has been calling the switchboard at the White House - trying to tell someone, anyone that free Iraqis wish for President Bush to win.

I wonder how many calls Senator Kerry has received? Only one from Waziristan I suppose. GOOD LUCK to GWB today. For the sake of humanity I hope he wins.

D,

you answer has been questioned???

Blimey, goes on R and R and this happens :-)

"playing around on the internet really isn't encouraged at my office."

Andrea - Can I interest you in an exciting career in terrorism? Internet usage is encouraged. Turnover is high so there's plenty of new positions opening up all every day!!

I've read on so many sites today ..."Will the US choose to be like Spain or Australia" Makes me proud.

Amos

You pegged it. Kerry is a spineless opportunist who will destroy the coalition of the willing to pander to France. All the great countries who have banded together with us to fight terrorism will have a knife in their backs.

I say this because Kerry has no principles or true beliefs except that he is entitled to be president. A man without extremely strong belief can never hold out. His own party will destroy him if he doesn't pull out. France and Germany won't support him either and the entire world will suffer. Most of all the poor Iraqis who will have had the US walk out on a second time. We will never get another mideastern country to trust us again.

Aw, come on Andrea. Please let us play with the trolls. Pleeeeease. ;-)

Stolen Election Protests Planned
Democrats are already planning to protest the election result.

Dissent being crushed hourly. Outstanding job, Andrea.

I LOVE the Internet.

It's going to be a long night here in Oz, but beer will help.

Go W.

test

I spent 12 months in Baghdad alongside some terrific Aussies. Your guys were a joy to work with (besides you were the only ones around smart enough to bring beer!) Bush will win and we WILL finish the great work that continues today. It still amazes me though, Kerry is the BEST the dems could come up with? Sheesh!

well, i've voted this morning in nj. an ok crowd there at 5:50 am

ohpleaseohpleasesweetbabyjeebus let nj go for w!

Kethleen A:
There is also another Iraqi petition where they are saying they don't want France involved in Iraq:
http://iraqthemodel.blogspot.com/

NJ won't go for Bush. But it'll be closer than anyone would expect.

I suspect the New Jersians are swinging a bit republican because what occured to Tony Sophrano has occured to them, that all that separates them from a nuclear bomb detonationg in a NY harbour packing container is a couple of hundred meters of open water and a chain link fence.

But NY is a blue state right? And Osama promised not to attack anyone who didn't vote for Bush...

Well guys, play with the trolls if you want, but if they take over the comment thread don't blame me!

actually, most of the containers are in port elizabeth, which is in nj...

i think nj might be pretty darn close. i think there are a lot of folks in nj who've never voted for republican before who will vote for w for 1 reason: sept 11th. they trust him to kill the bastards. they'll vote republican for president and democrat on all the other issues.

A brief news update:

President George Bush and Senator John Kerry have just announced that they are now both being promoted by Don King... {/i>

And some early results just in:

John Kerry has won the election, scoring 538 Electoral College votes to President Bush's 0. Upon being informed of the result President Bush attacked Senator Kerry, biting off a large chunk of the Senator's ear and spitting it on the floor...

A brief news update:

President George Bush and Senator John Kerry have just announced that they are now both being promoted by Don King...

And some early results just in:

John Kerry has won the election, scoring 538 Electoral College votes to President Bush's 0. Upon being informed of the result President Bush attacked Senator Kerry, biting off a large chunk of the Senator's ear and spitting it on the floor...

You're dreaming, NJ will not go red. But your right in that it may go a little pink.

yeah, i'm dreaming.

sigh

i need a drink.

with ossama bin liner, the bbc, the french president and the central committee of the chinese communist party all endorsing kerry how can he lose? oh and the guardian newspaper too.

Would you believe there's already been a recount in Hart's Location? Seriously. It resulted in a transfer of one Kerry vote into Bush's column.

Election officials had a total of 31 votes to count. Apparently the sheer volume overwhelmed them, making mistakes of this nature all but inevitable.

Ahm tellin' ya, no way do Amuhricans pull th' lever fer Kerry in big enuff numbers to whup Bush. The'll git 'n th' booth an' they jus' won't be able ta do it. Not when they see Osama's next move starin' em straight'n thuh ayes.

New Jersey may not go completely red - but it will be bright pink I suspect. People here are very different than liberal NYC. The Sopranos? Well. I think most people in NJ will act on their gut instincts. Kerry comes off as a poser. Bush might be annoying to some - but you know where he stands. PLUS - OBL could only get out a video to influence our election. That's pretty good.

approximately 300 lawyers have descended on Hart's Location NH, enjoining small children and puppies and issueing injunctions against little old ladies on the public street...

CBS says Bush won Hart's location 17-13!
(http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B5A7EE23A-466C-42FC-B350-AE60D32FB7BC%7D&siteid=google&dist=google)

Sorry for the screwed up post, CBS link is here.

They found app. 2000 votes already pe-loaded onto the machines in Philly this morning. Hmm, probably not for Bush either-just guessing! Mr. Bingley, stop drinking and get over there!

Mark Mellman is predicting a 3% Bush victory. Why care? Mellman is Kerry's chief pollster. Via Instapundit.

Sean, the article you linked says 17-13 was the result in 2000, not this year. For 2004, they still have the uncorrected 15-15-1 turnout Tim mentioned above.

yojimbo,

to paraphrase wc fields

first prize is you get to vote in philadelphia...second prize is you get to vote twice!

Mr. Bingley-Well said.

Andrea, why ban differences of opinion? You just might learn something. Is this the Aussie way?