March 21, 2004
ONLY FIFTEEN?
The New York Times reports:
A year ago, it would have been inconceivable for a citizen of Syria, run by the Baath Party of President Bashar al-Assad, to make a documentary film with the working title, "Fifteen Reasons Why I Hate the Baath."
Yet watching the overthrow of Saddam Hussein across the border in Iraq prompted Omar Amiralay to do just that. "It gave me the courage to do it," he said.
"When you see one of the two Baath parties broken, collapsing, you can only hope that it will be the turn of the Syrian Baath next," he added.
Via Jack Strocchi, who writes: "If this goes anywhere, then the war will have been a strategic success." Well, it's only been a year ... and we've already seen Libya 'fess up all its mega-weapon plans, while the anti-mullah mood in Iran is percolating nicely. Add Syrian defiance, and we're looking at some serious progress.
Posted by Tim Blair at March 21, 2004 02:34 AM"Fifteen Reasons Why I Hate the Baath."
That should be popular in France. Oh. Baath.
Never mind.
Posted by: Ernie G at March 21, 2004 at 10:39 AMIf this development gets Mr. Jack Strocchi, Man Of Letters And Words And Ineffable Casuistry, to quit his ridiculous strategic arguments then this can be considered a total victory.
Posted by: Sortelli at March 21, 2004 at 12:13 PMIf this development gets Mr. Jack Strocchi, Man Of Letters And Words And Ineffable Casuistry, to quit his ridiculous strategic arguments then this can be considered a total victory.
How dare you insult the brilliant "beyond ideology" Mr Strocchi. We mere mortals can not even begin to know the depths of his voluminous wisdom!
Posted by: Quentin George at March 21, 2004 at 12:56 PMThat's why we mere mortals won't be voting for Mr. Nuance this November, either. :)
Posted by: Sortelli at March 21, 2004 at 02:08 PMThat's why we mere mortals won't be voting for Mr. Nuance this November, either. :)
Ah, but you'll be expressing your support for him by not voting for him. That's the Kerry way. If he complains, tell him he doesn't understand 'nuance'.
Posted by: Quentin George at March 21, 2004 at 04:50 PMWell, it's only been a year ... and we've already seen Libya 'fess up all its mega-weapon plans, while the anti-mullah mood in Iran is percolating nicely. Add Syrian defiance, and we're looking at some serious progress.
Funny how anything good that happens is a direct result of the invasion of Iraq, but anything bad that happens is entirely unconnected.
Posted by: Mork at March 21, 2004 at 06:59 PM"anything bad that happens is entirely unconnected."
Who is saying that Mork?
Posted by: Gary at March 21, 2004 at 09:25 PMMork, Are you saying that the really good things happening as a result of the Iraqi shake-up are not worth the effort because the bad guys get upset that we removed an insane tyrant, liberated oppressed Iraqis and gave hope to other Middle Eastern Muslims?
Maybe you're right... the lives of Coalition servicemembers and European civilians are worth more than those of Arab, Persian and Muslim citizens living in despair. Forget them and the terrorism breeding there. We shouldn't do what the bad guys don't want us to do, or they'll bomb us.
Wait a minute... aren't they trying to bomb and kill us off, anyway? It's so confusing
Posted by: c at March 22, 2004 at 06:07 AMThe brilliant, ideology-transcending Jack Strocchi would like to add a few comments to his quote in this post, so brutally ripped out of context by the outlandishly provocative, Tabloid journalist attack-dog Blair.
Geo-political conclusions must be based on an objective reading of the evidence, not on subjective wishful thinking.
Most of TB's inferences from the strategic effects of the Iraq war have hitherto fallen into the latter category.
Gaddafi was already on the road West make-nice before Iraq attack. See war nerd for the goods on Gadaffis periodic hissy-fits. In any case, Gadaffi is a pussy, he does not need a war to be whipped.
The final staw in Gaddafis WMD program was broken by a German-based interception of Libyan arms shipment. Two cheers for multilateralism.
Likewise the Mullahs of Iran were already heading towards oblivion before GW II. THe regime change appears to have strenghtened their electoral hand. This political gain has also encouraged them tobalk at giving up their WMD program.
Nevertheless, the Syrian breath of freedom is the first real GW II-related strategic gain achieved outside of the Iraq AO. If it goes futher in that direction then we could see an Eastern Europe-style momentum towards democracy. In which case I will have been proved wrong about admittsing to being wrong.
Syria is nowhere near capitulation. Twenty thousand troops still occupy Lebanon, Hizbollah has thousands of rockets pointed at Israel, and Baby Assad is financing terror, crushing rebellion in several towns and cities, and sounding exactly like his father, if not a little crazier.
On the other hand, I have a theory that Lebanon is the next target in our war on terror. There are far too many terrorist nests there that need to be shut down.
"Geo-political conclusions must be based on an objective reading of the evidence, not on subjective wishful thinking."
Good point. That is exactly what Bush and his advisors have been doing. It is plain that the developments in Iran and Syria are related to their success in Iraq and are exactly the sort of thing they expected from that success beforehand.
As for Libya, well Ghaddaffi himself said the reason he was throwing in the towel was that he was scared of what America might do to him.
The idea that anything except their own election fraud strengthened the Mullahs' electoral hand is risible.
Posted by: Michael Lonie at March 22, 2004 at 02:21 PMYou don't understand. It's not what Libyans (or anyone else) _says_ caused their changed behavior, it's what can be surmised from _nuanced_ understanding of how the UN is actually the root of all good in internatioal politics. Just as the US is the root of all bad.
Posted by: JorgXMcKie at March 22, 2004 at 03:35 PMMichael Lonie makes a fatal mistake:
As for Libya, well Ghaddaffi himself said the reason he was throwing in the towel was that he was scared of what America might do to him.
You would have to be a fool to believe what Gaddafi says.
Posted by: Jack Strocchi at March 22, 2004 at 04:16 PM