October 09, 2004
ELECTION LATEST
I’ll be at the Sofitel Wentworth (Liberal election-night headquarters) tonight until late, so readers are again invited to keep everybody informed via comments. Nine’s coverage begins at 6.30pm; the ABC’s begins when polls close at 6.00pm; and Sky News kicks into election mode at 4.00pm (all times AEST).
Visit the Australian Electoral Commission for poll data, and go to Currency Lad, Arthur Chrenkoff, Sam Ward, Bernard Slattery, Rob Corr, Alan Anderson, Tim Dunlop, Adrian, the Gnu Hunter, Mike Jericho, Chris Sheil, Peter Kerr, Tony the Teacher, Troppo Armadillo, Angela Bell and Paul & Carl for blog news 'n' views.
Sydney readers: supporters of unstable Wentworth independent Pat Sheil plan fun and chaos tonight at the Mill Hill Hotel, 59 Oxford St., Bondi Junction. I might be there after 11.00pm. Laborites will meet at the Broadway (corner of Regent and Broadway) from 7.00pm.
Special gloating and weeping forums will be posted here as soon as a result is called -- if a result is called tonight, and I'm near a computer. And able to type. These posts have been written in advance, so as to not reflect any of my evident bias.
Posted by Tim Blair at October 9, 2004 04:52 PMPollster Gary Morgan has again put his reputation on the line, going against the trend in other polls by forecasting a close Labor win tonight.
Mr Morgan, whose company Roy Morgan Research tipped a landslide victory by Kim Beazley in the 2001 election, has put the Labor Party ahead on a two-party preferred basis by 51 per cent to 49 per cent.
Mr Morgan said the result was too close to call because it hinged on marginal coalition seats, with the serious possibility of a hung parliament.
Much ado about not much in Wentworth.
No chance a Labor win due to a major preference flow between King and Turnbull regardless of the official how to votes. So it's Ind Lib or Lib and another one Lifelong has to win in lieu.
Whatta ya mean "And able to type"?
Being shitfaced drunk doesn't ever stop your American readers from typing in the comments!
C'mon John, ya boy-o!
Posted by: JDB at October 9, 2004 at 05:42 PMMorgan Poll is predicting a Labor win? God, another poll going Howard's way (based on Morgan Poll accuracy).
Let's not jinx it!
Posted by: Quentin George at October 9, 2004 at 06:03 PMPollster Gary Morgan has again put his reputation on the line, going against the trend in other polls by forecasting a close Labor win tonight.
I think a Red Dwarf reference is in line here:
"I'll stake my reputation on it."
"Kryten, you don't have a reputation."
"No, but I'm hoping to gain one from this incident."
Posted by: Quentin George at October 9, 2004 at 06:10 PMWhoah! A giant 350 votes have been counted!
Current results:
Liberal/National Coalition 147 40.38 +3.18
Australian Labor Party 217 59.62 -3.18
Must be Tassie.
Anyone know some election-night drinking games?
Take a shot when they count a vote.
...just kidding.
Posted by: Quentin George at October 9, 2004 at 06:34 PM4,000 votes counted. Too early for any real results, but currently a 6% swing to Coalition seems to be steady.
Posted by: Quentin George at October 9, 2004 at 06:49 PMJeeez...big Green vote in Bass, from early figures, remote booths, big worry nationally.
Good Lib primary, but that won't help if that's anything like national numbers.
ELECTION NIGHT DRINKING GAME
Skoll a Bundy, or drink of your choice, every time a talking head says either:
a) 'knife's edge'
b) 'too close to call'
c) 'in the balance'
If ABC heads start dissecting where it all went wrong for Labor PRIOR to 8pm, start on the doubles.
At that rate of consumption, by 8pm Kerry Nettle will start looking even foxier and your clever witticisms will flow, e.g. "Phwoooaaarrrr, I'm having an election - IN MY PANTS!!"
Later, if Labor victory is announced, geyser all those drinks in a looping projectile arc all over the television set.
Posted by: Sweet sweet Bundy at October 9, 2004 at 07:09 PMPreferences are definately going to play a part. At this stage, primary vote is up for Coalition and Greens, down for Labor, way down for Democrats and One Nation.
Posted by: Quentin George at October 9, 2004 at 07:10 PMYou heard it here first....
Bass & Brandon may have gone Lib.
B & B gone equals Lifelong stuffed.
Means 2 more need to be won on mainland.
Not probable.
It's over at 1820 EST.
Two Party Preferred Braddon
Australian Labor Party -7.18
Liberal +7.18
Two Party Preferred Bass
Liberal +2.91
Australian Labor Party -2.91
If Labor DOES lose these seats, it will struggle to make up the 10 it needs elsewhere.
Posted by: Quentin George at October 9, 2004 at 07:26 PMHeh, I know they've only counted 0.05% of the vote in Victoria, but the Liberals have currently a 14%(!) swing in their favour.
Something funky went on there...
Posted by: Quentin George at October 9, 2004 at 07:31 PMAddition to drinking game. Whenever a talking head says "but remember s/he is a good/strong local member" when talking about why all is not yet lost.
Posted by: Just Another Bloody Lawyer at October 9, 2004 at 07:36 PMEarly days yet, but I say this with confidence:
It would appear One Nation and the Democrats are fucked.
Posted by: Quentin George at October 9, 2004 at 07:37 PMBring back Natasha! Give up the grog Andrew! I agree with you mate - whatever happens the greens are huge gainers whilst I cannot see the democrats getting any joy from this.
Poor old One Nation senator Lenny Harris - my old gold room mate - I dont even those red necked northern Queenslanders will save you now!
Posted by: Rob at October 9, 2004 at 07:39 PMI've already let my first Woooohoooo! and it's only 4:30pm here in the West!
Posted by: Dean McAskil at October 9, 2004 at 07:41 PMAll is not lost for Labor, they are up in Queensland, but then, so are the Liberals...weird, where did the extra votes materialise from?
Posted by: Quentin George at October 9, 2004 at 07:43 PMDan Stapleton is blogging it up from the National Tally Room. He was one of the Election Trackers blogging for the site of the same name (my fave Tracker was Hailey Baldwin)
Posted by: TimT at October 9, 2004 at 07:45 PMDon't want to jump the gun, but 6.30 newsbreak seemed pretty negative about ALP prospects based on the swing against them in Tas.
'If they lose these 3 Tas seats it will not be possible for them to win'. Very downbeat.
I do remember 2 elections ago when seasoned ALP frontbenchers declared it all over and lost even before polls closed in the West. Who knows?
Posted by: Om at October 9, 2004 at 07:47 PMQlders get up earlier, more time to 'vote early vote often'!
Posted by: om at October 9, 2004 at 07:49 PMI'm calling Bass and Braddon for the Liberals.
Posted by: Quentin George at October 9, 2004 at 07:50 PMIt was over 1820 EST.
Bass & Banndon can't be compensated for.
Braddon, Banndon, Brandon
Blame conflicted spelling on "Asahi Extra Dry"™ (Japans No1 beer) best before 04/05.
Eden-Monaro is looking shaky. Labor might grab it.
Posted by: Quentin George at October 9, 2004 at 07:58 PMAll int'l stuff aside: I'm still curious what the difference will be to you Aussies, one way or t'other?
Other than having lefty jagoffs running things, like in SF or NYC up here, that is...
Posted by: geezer at October 9, 2004 at 08:01 PMWell, just best wishes from an Aussie citizen overseas in the states - I've been staying up late tonight wanting to have some idea of the results, but soon here, I think I'll be able to sleep without worries.
A Liberal victory (funny saying that, here we call the OTHER ones the Liberals) would be a very good thing. Go Howard!
Posted by: Patrick at October 9, 2004 at 08:04 PMOnly bummer at the moment: Green primary vote is WAY up. Mostly at the expense of Labor.
Posted by: Quentin George at October 9, 2004 at 08:04 PMGreenway leaning to the Liberals.
And only 99.64% of the votes yet to be counted there. ;)
Posted by: PW at October 9, 2004 at 08:05 PMQuentin - In QLD, the votes came at the expense of One Nation and the Democrats.
Posted by: Pixy Misa at October 9, 2004 at 08:06 PMAnd only 99.64% of the votes yet to be counted there. ;)
That's why I said "leaning". Heh.
Posted by: Quentin George at October 9, 2004 at 08:07 PMOoh, only 5% counted, but Latham has a swing against him in Werriwa.
Posted by: Quentin George at October 9, 2004 at 08:08 PMTalk to us tomorrow geezer.
It's time......
For giga piss up.
Michael Organ (Green) may keep Cunningham if he gets a good proportion of Liberal preferences.
Posted by: Quentin George at October 9, 2004 at 08:09 PMCurrently, the AEC has Labor 5, Liberal 7, National 5, Independent 2. The early swing to the Coalition is declining, so that was probably mostly Tassie.
Posted by: Pixy Misa at October 9, 2004 at 08:10 PMClick!
Labor 6, Liberal 11, National 5, Independent 2.
Still 1 doubtful in Tas.
Posted by: Pixy Misa at October 9, 2004 at 08:11 PMThis might be well to early and the effect of too many Crown Lagers but feel free to sing along
"Deep down in louisiana close to new orleans
Way back up in the woods among the evergreens
There stood a log cabin made of earth and wood
Where lived a country boy named johnny be good
Who never ever learned to read or write so well
But he could play the guitar just like ringin a bell"
GO JOHNNY GO
Hmm, Howard barely cracking 50% in Bennelong with about 5% of preferences counted...
Posted by: PW at October 9, 2004 at 08:14 PMHow about that, overseas guests -
Our votes are counted by the AEC...
Atomic cool or what?
Posted by: om at October 9, 2004 at 08:15 PMNone of you blokes and birds are equity traders, eh? Can't spot a trend? Still nervous?
Forget it.
It's over.
We won.
It's sure looking good, TT. But we don't want to just win, we want to squash them like bugs! Bwahahaha!
Posted by: Pixy Misa at October 9, 2004 at 08:18 PMHoward will get up. He's got a 4.75% swing against him though.
Posted by: Quentin George at October 9, 2004 at 08:20 PMIn the face of a 4th Coalition victory, watch the Fairfax/ABC Axis of Evil run with the 'Australia turns to the Greens' angle.
Posted by: Sweet sweet Bundy at October 9, 2004 at 08:21 PMBugger Professor Bunyip beat me to it. Go see
Posted by: Just Another Bloody Lawyer at October 9, 2004 at 08:21 PMBracks must be having a "drag" effect for the Victorian ALP...there's a 4.3% swing towards the Libs.
Posted by: Quentin George at October 9, 2004 at 08:22 PMOh is it time to drop the anonymity, give our secret call signs, and implement the 'secret plan'?
RWDB Hail!
Posted by: om at October 9, 2004 at 08:23 PMCheryl Kernot might have had the right idea to jump from the Democrats when she did...
Posted by: Quentin George at October 9, 2004 at 08:24 PMPage:
29.93% Counted
43 of 82 polling places returned
Causley (Nat, sitting member): 49.48%
Bell (Labor): 32.69%
Jackson (Nazis, err, Greens): 9.72%
Anderson (LFF): 2.57%
Behn (I): 2.15%
Mateer (ORP): 1.68%
Griffiths (CEC): 1.08%
Flanagan (Socialist Alliance): 0.62%
TT, i trade commodities - Johnny be riding a strong bull market! And I reckon Biff doesn't know about stop losses.
Posted by: Sweet sweet Bundy at October 9, 2004 at 08:27 PMat the moment it just looks like a switch of the One nation vote to the Libs/Nats;
a switch of the Dems vote to the Greens and the tinest of swings to the government
Yee-fucking-ha! Sen. Robert Ray has virtually conceded.
Message to Left Tool Squeezers:
Suck it in you fucking losers!
Posted by: murph at October 9, 2004 at 08:30 PMPixy, Pixy, Pixy....
My seat is Patterson, Lib held by 1.4%.
An ABC marginal.
We've got these fuckers with a 5% swing to Lib.
Think massacre.
Enjoy the night.
I can't wait to read Phillip Adam's column...
Posted by: Quentin George at October 9, 2004 at 08:31 PMPixy, Pixy, Pixy....
My seat is Patterson, Lib held by 1.4%.
An ABC marginal.
We've got these fuckers with a 5% swing to Lib.
Think massacre.
Enjoy the night.
Pixy, Pixy, Pixy....
My seat is Patterson, Lib held by 1.4%.
An ABC marginal.
We've got these fuckers with a 5% swing to Lib.
Think massacre.
Enjoy the night.
It's official. The Greens have taken the Labor primary vote and shagged it out the back, leaving it bloodied, bruised and no match for the Coalition.
Posted by: Quentin George at October 9, 2004 at 08:33 PMOfficial Australian Electorial Commission tally
Seats needed to win government: 76
Lib/Nat: 52
ALP: 32
Ind: 3
swing to Lib/Nat of 2.33%
Posted by: AMTP10E at October 9, 2004 at 08:35 PMTT - thanks, I am enjoying it!
Quentin - yeah, pretty much.
Posted by: Pixy Misa at October 9, 2004 at 08:35 PMTT, we get the idea. No need to post it three times.
Posted by: TribeHasSpoken at October 9, 2004 at 08:36 PMWell Marky-Mark did stake a lot on getting pasly with Bobbie Brown and Petie Garrotte...
As the Working Class Man says -
'crying shame, got yourself to blame...'
Yeeeha!! reaching for the corkscrew.....
The long faces on the ABC are just the icing on the cake.
Official Australian Electorial Commission tally
Seats needed to win government: 76
Lib/Nat: 58
ALP: 38
Ind: 3
swing to Lib/Nat of 2.23%
Posted by: AMTP10E at October 9, 2004 at 08:41 PMHave a look at the swings in the senate! Maybe a majority in both houses! The left will absolutely implode.
Posted by: Dean McAskil at October 9, 2004 at 08:41 PMOfficial Australian Electorial Commission tally
Seats needed to win government: 76
Lib/Nat: 61
ALP: 40
Ind: 3
swing to Lib/Nat of 2.26%
Posted by: AMTP10E at October 9, 2004 at 08:43 PMSuggestions for Margo follow up:
Quite Happy, John.
Posted by: Quentin George at October 9, 2004 at 08:46 PMOfficial Australian Electorial Commission tally
Seats needed to win government: 76
Lib/Nat: 64
ALP: 40
Ind: 3
swing to Lib/Nat of 2.18%
Posted by: AMTP10E at October 9, 2004 at 08:49 PMDear Gary Morgan,
You are useless. So, please predict a Labor victory in late 2006 or thereabouts.
Regards,
The Australian People
Posted by: Anon at October 9, 2004 at 08:50 PMSo...
What how many seats are there in the AU parly? 150?
Official Australian Electorial Commission tally
Seats needed to win government: 76
Lib/Nat: 66
ALP: 40
Ind: 3
swing to Lib/Nat of 2.13%
Posted by: AMTP10E at October 9, 2004 at 08:52 PMThe upside for Lefties: 3 more years of material for dumb books!
Posted by: Quentin George at October 9, 2004 at 08:52 PMWhat how many seats are there in the AU parly? 150?
Yeah.
Posted by: Quentin George at October 9, 2004 at 08:53 PMDemocracy wins!
Have to say I'm pretty proud, whoever wins. Despite the intense feelings of some, the atmosphere at my yuppieville Poll Station was very decent with opponents chatting amiably.
Which other country has a record of peaceful politics to match? (no offence overseas friends)
Posted by: om at October 9, 2004 at 08:53 PMSmapty - yes, 150 seats in the House of Reps, which determines who takes power. So Howard currently has 66 out of the 76 he needs to win.
Posted by: Pixy Misa at October 9, 2004 at 08:53 PMHow many seats did Howard have before this election?
Posted by: Smapty-527 at October 9, 2004 at 08:55 PMPage:
50.73% Counted
64 of 82 polling places returned
Causley (Nat, sitting member): 49.26%
Bell (Labor): 33.08%
Jackson (Nazis, err, Greens): 10.16%
Anderson (LFF): 2.51%
Behn (I): 1.73%
Mateer (ORP): 1.62%
Griffiths (CEC): 1.04%
Flanagan (Socialist Alliance): 0.60%
A 7.04% swing to the Nationals
TCP:
Causley: 54.31%
Bell: 45.69
A 1.54% swing to the Nationals.
Posted by: Sheriff at October 9, 2004 at 08:55 PMom - you're right. There are real moonbats out there, but they seem to make up a pretty small percentage of the population. Even the Green voters seem to be mostly quite pleasant, if a bit confused.
Posted by: Pixy Misa at October 9, 2004 at 08:55 PMTribeHas
Sorry, multiple posts due coincident phone line drop out.
Tune to ABC coverage and watch the deflated talking heads.
"It's the sweetest victory of all"
So, how about a poll on what time T. W.* Latham concedes?
I say 10:30 tonight. Then he mugs an electoral officer.
* That Wanker.
Posted by: Pixy Misa at October 9, 2004 at 08:59 PMI just got banned from CS's blog for informing him of the reality of this world.
Posted by: murph at October 9, 2004 at 09:00 PMBlogging sure beats passively watching TV commentators & their inane commentary, instead DIY...
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/
Up to the minute results.
53.44% LNP vs 46.56% ALP. +2.08 swing to LNP.
ABC is saying it's all over with major swing to the conservatives and ALP losing seats.
Posted by: Hanyu at October 9, 2004 at 09:00 PMJust heard the first "we won the campaign but lost the election" chestnut. Latham looks like going backwards - after all of the rhetoric by party hacks and stalwarts talking him up tonight, it is rare, if not unprecedented, for a party to hang on to a leader after they enter negative territory, especially after all of the, like, 'positive vibes' during the campaign man.
Posted by: Sweet sweet Bundy at October 9, 2004 at 09:01 PMOfficial Australian Electorial Commission tally
Seats needed to win government: 76
Lib/Nat: 67
ALP: 41
Ind: 3
swing to Lib/Nat of 2.07%
Posted by: AMTP10E at October 9, 2004 at 09:01 PMKerry O'Brien wears a hairpiece. No man of that age (and he is showing his age) has natural hair like that.
Posted by: walter plinge at October 9, 2004 at 09:03 PMThey can win all the campaigns they like; we'll just concentrate on winning the elections. Hey, everybody's happy!
Posted by: Pixy Misa at October 9, 2004 at 09:03 PMI've already heard how they are spinning it
One Nation vote decline by 3%. Liberal vote up by 3%.
Therefore, Howard won re-election with votes of racists.
Posted by: Quentin George at October 9, 2004 at 09:07 PMWell, you know how it is.
They think we're evil.
We think they're stupid. Heck, we know they're stupid.
And all their hard work has come to naught! Take that, Sydney Morning Herald! Take that, Philip Adams! Take that, Margo!
Bwahahaha!
Posted by: Pixy Misa at October 9, 2004 at 09:09 PMHere's a funny thread to look back at.
Looks like we all erred on the side of Labor.
Red Kerry looks like he just sucked a dozen lemons, had a snipe at Nick Minchin about "negative advertising", and is pondering whether postal votes may yet have an influence.
(as if!)
Jeez, I'm loving this.
Fourth Term!!
Posted by: Pedro the Ignorant at October 9, 2004 at 09:14 PMOfficial Australian Electorial Commission tally
Primary votes counted: 48.07%
Two party preferred votes counted: 32.30%
Seats needed to win government: 76
Lib/Nat: 68
ALP: 42
Ind: 3
swing to Lib/Nat of 2.15%
Posted by: AMTP10E at October 9, 2004 at 09:14 PMBobbie Brown just blamed the electoral system, 'Howard still only got 42% of the vote...'. Dictatorship!
But he's grinning like a Cheshire Cat at the Green swing.
Quentin - looks like Slatts pretty much nailed it.
Posted by: Pixy Misa at October 9, 2004 at 09:17 PMOfficial Australian Electorial Commission tally
Primary votes counted: 51.27%
Two party preferred votes counted: 35.66%
Seats needed to win government: 76
Lib/Nat: 68
ALP: 43
Ind: 3
swing to Lib/Nat of 2.13%
Posted by: AMTP10E at October 9, 2004 at 09:19 PMDaily Telegraph came out supporting Howard today.
-Predict 'sinister hand of Murdoch in the result'...
But face it, lefties. We don't need the MSM for info any more, we get it straight from Iraqi Bloggers (amongst others).
Victory for the Blogosphere!
Posted by: om at October 9, 2004 at 09:21 PMRELISHING the next dinner party at my sister's house - she's a teacher, and husband is a University professor. Guess which way they vote?! Preparing myself for the obligatory 'I don't know ANYONE who voted liberal' exclamation. I'll be taking them chardonnay and humble pie.
Posted by: Sweet sweet Bundy at October 9, 2004 at 09:22 PM
Quentin George: "Looks like we all erred on the side of Labor."
I certainly did. I thought Howard would hang on by only a couple of seats, and I was ready to be very happy about that. Now I'm grinning like a cheshire cat.
I was so wrong - watch me dance a little jig of despair!
Posted by: David Blue at October 9, 2004 at 09:28 PMFairfax Headline: Howard Reelected, Environment, minorities hit hardest
Posted by: Quentin George at October 9, 2004 at 09:30 PMWhat are the talking heads saying about how big Howard's majority will be? (I'm not in front of a TV)
Posted by: AMTP10E at October 9, 2004 at 09:31 PMIndian batting collapsing as well 5/86
can things get any better
Posted by: mike.a at October 9, 2004 at 09:33 PMBob McMullen looks suicidal.
Anyone feel sorry for the ALP?
Naaawwwwh.
Posted by: om at October 9, 2004 at 09:33 PMKimbo's on right now. Very gracious.
There's the man they should have gone with, and I think tonight is emphatic proof of that much.
Posted by: Grand Old Elephant at October 9, 2004 at 09:34 PM>can things get any better
Bob Brown getting crushed by a falling old growth tree?
Posted by: AMTP10E at October 9, 2004 at 09:35 PMThere's the man they should have gone with, and I think tonight is emphatic proof of that much.
Exactly. Why did they take a punt with a violent thug?
Posted by: Quentin George at October 9, 2004 at 09:36 PMYep. If he'd been the Labor leader, I'd still have voted for Howard, but I could have lived with a Labor win.
But Latham? Ugh.
Posted by: Pixy Misa at October 9, 2004 at 09:36 PM
The pundit Timmy Blair
Put his finger in the air
Said "Latho's gunna win"
"He's bound to shit it in"
Timmy was all wrong
Johnny came home strong
Never trust a Blair
With his finger in the air!
What are the talking heads saying about how big Howard's majority will be? (I'm not in front of a TV)
22 seat majority.
Posted by: Quentin George at October 9, 2004 at 09:38 PMIn lighter news, Peter Garrett now MP for Kingsford-Smith.
Posted by: Quentin George at October 9, 2004 at 09:41 PM22 seat majority.
You're fucking shitting me. NO WAY! I was expecting him to loose 4 or 6 seats but to GAIN 10! Jesus Christ! Who's gonna dispose of all the lefties who are gonna take to the Draino tonight?
Posted by: AMTP10E at October 9, 2004 at 09:41 PMCongratulations Australia!
May your military continue to kick ass and your economy continue to be a world-beater!
Posted by: M.J. Smith at October 9, 2004 at 09:42 PM22 seat majority.
You're fucking shitting me. NO WAY! I was expecting him to loose 4 or 6 seats but to GAIN 10! Jesus Christ! Who's gonna dispose of all the lefties who are gonna take to the Draino tonight?
From somebody on the American side of the Pacific - this is beginning to sound like the great stampede of 2002. I assure you, a lot of us were astounded by the results that time, too; in the off-year elections in the USA, it's virtually unheard of for the incumbent party to gain seats - but it happened in 2002. Speaking as a Republican, I wasn't dismayed. :D
Posted by: Joe at October 9, 2004 at 09:45 PMIt doesn't get any better than this.
Kimbo just said that any loss of less than 25 seats is a HUGE victory.
Looks like up to 18 AMTP.
More latter.
Results are starting to trickle in from WA now.
Same story - Libs, Greens up, Labor steady, Dems, One Nation toast.
Posted by: Pixy Misa at October 9, 2004 at 09:48 PMDon't mess with the master.
(P.S this is an expat sitting (previously nervously) in a Saigon internet cafe.
Have the Libs picked up senate spots? Picking up 5-10 seats, while awesome, means nothing if the filthy fucking feral Greens take control of the Senate.
Posted by: John Fucking Howard at October 9, 2004 at 09:48 PMP.S. In my previous post, I was trying to italicize the part I was quoting, it didn't come out right. Sorry about that. I was quoting AMTP10E.
Posted by: Joe at October 9, 2004 at 09:49 PMYeeeeehaaaaww!! 4 in a Row. Phillip Adams must be a blubering mess. What excuses this time Phil? Again the great unwashed don't know what good for them eh? The dumb voters just cant be as clear minded as you? You LOSER! Oh this feels good. And I gave up the piss a while back... Damn!
Yep, second that on Big Kim. Latho does not come up to his bootstraps.
Posted by: Dog at October 9, 2004 at 09:50 PMSenate results are counted really slowly. Probably won't know the full story for days.
It's looking bad for the Democrats though.
Posted by: Quentin George at October 9, 2004 at 09:50 PMOfficial Australian Electorial Commission tally
Primary votes counted: 64.35%
Two party preferred votes counted: 52.93%
Seats needed to win government: 76
Lib/Nat: 69
ALP: 43
Ind: 3
swing to Lib/Nat of 2.08%
Posted by: AMTP10E at October 9, 2004 at 09:50 PMCan someone please contact Mark Latham and get him to concede defeat - NOW.
If he has any sense of history, he has the rare opportunity to be the earliest concession speech in history.
This could be one of the few lasting achievements for a Labor campaign which seems to have been the epitome of hope over compentence & substance.
GO MARK We want you to be the ALP Leader forever!
Posted by: the_GOP_Elephant at October 9, 2004 at 09:50 PMI am SO going to love seeing the expression on Latham's face as he conceeds defeat.
And better yet I'm gonna get the chance to see it over and over and over again on every TV and newspaper in the country!
Posted by: AMTP10E at October 9, 2004 at 09:54 PMDoes the Leberal party care weather they win majority with the Nationals or without? i.e. 176+ all by themselves? Would that achievement make much of a differance in the end?
Posted by: Smapty-527 at October 9, 2004 at 09:55 PMTT - yep, all over bar the gloating. Oh, and the drinking. And then more gloating.
Posted by: Pixy Misa at October 9, 2004 at 09:55 PMSky News reporter John Mangos says Latham was, shock horror, very petulant on arrival at Sydney party headquarters. Mangos is curious about what the "golden boy" will say to the true-believers in his concession speech. What can he say?
Posted by: J F Beck at October 9, 2004 at 09:55 PMKimbo was spinning it was a good result for the ALP because he said they won more than they looked like winning last year.
amortiser
Posted by: amortiser at October 9, 2004 at 09:55 PMThe real problem for Labor is that their primary vote has been completely rooted.
Thirty fucking seven per cent. Fucking atrocious.
Posted by: Quentin George at October 9, 2004 at 09:55 PMSounds like great news!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Its 5:30am here in the US and had to know how things were going go thanks for the hopeful update....Im going back to bed and hope to see COALITION WINS as headlines. thanks for all the great info . se you in a couple hours.
Posted by: debbie at October 9, 2004 at 09:56 PMWhat can he say?
I'm sorry I fucked around with issues of national security, insulted our closest ally, and have a terrorism policy that makes no sense.
I'm sorry I fucked over the true believers chasing after the Green vote.
I'm sorry I can't control my temper or my foul mouth.
That'd be a good start.
There's no pleasing some people. Over at the SMH there is a place where people can 'barrack' for their team. What a pack of sorry indignation.
I voted in Hong Kong and it was great to see asian australians out in force, proud to be voting. To those idiots who feel 'ashamed to be australian', those who voted in HK don't australia offers them the sort of democracy you cant find in HK and certainly cant find in China. The fact that we have a democracy is a comfort to ourselves, the fact that our democracy does not vote the way leftists want is a source of missplaced and undeserved self pity
Posted by: nic at October 9, 2004 at 09:58 PMWhy does it take so long to count the Senate votes?
Posted by: Evan Kirchhoff at October 9, 2004 at 09:59 PMBob Brown, on Sky News, claims it was a "marvelous" result for the Greens. He is "delighted".
Posted by: J F Beck at October 9, 2004 at 09:59 PMEarlier I wished that Howard would shit on the left like a German porn star.
Looks like I got my wish!
Posted by: AMTP10E at October 9, 2004 at 10:00 PMOzzie, Ozzie, Ozzie, Oi, Oi, Oi!
I haven't been this engrossed in an Australian election since I watched "Falcon & The Snowman" on pirated cable TV back in college.
Good on ya, John! Congratulations and thank you, Australia!
Posted by: JDB at October 9, 2004 at 10:02 PMDemocrats leader Andrew Bartlett says there is a danger the Coalition could gain control of the Senate.
AHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHA
Posted by: Quentin George at October 9, 2004 at 10:02 PMfour things
1) people who say there is a whiff in the air of government change are sniffing their ass
2) Morgan poll is complete garbage
3) D Shannhan runs the same column every election.
4) stinking Mark Latham is finished, the ALP is finished
Posted by: klein at October 9, 2004 at 10:03 PMSmapty - the Liberals and the Nationals have been in coalition roughly forever, and never contest the same seat. It's pretty much one party.
Posted by: Pixy Misa at October 9, 2004 at 10:04 PMthe_GOP_Elephant:
Agreed. I hope the party begs him to stay on and be leader-for-life.
Oh, and great nickname.
Posted by: Grand Old Elephant at October 9, 2004 at 10:07 PMDemocrats leader Andrew Bartlett says there is a danger the Coalition could gain control of the Senate.
That's the kind of news that gives this RWDB a hard on!
Posted by: AMTP10E at October 9, 2004 at 10:08 PMWell it seems that Margo Kingston has had a decisive impact on the election result - NOT.
Can we please start a fund to help her establish an office in Baghdad (with a big sign over the door - perhaps a neon sign) so she can (if she really means what she says about democracy) help to achieve that in Iraq in their coming election by going there.
E
Posted by: the_GOP_Elephant at October 9, 2004 at 10:09 PMLatest from the ABC :
66.3% counted
To Win : 76
Liberals 73
Nationals 12 (Coalition 85 total)
Labor 56
Ind 3
Green 0
In doubt 5
Last election:
Coalition 83
Labor 63
Independant 3
Green 1
Howard's in with an increased majority, the only question is, how much is the increase?
Looks like I was completely wrong, I thought Latham would get in on Green preferences. The Green vote has gone up a bit, but not in places that matter - in fact, they'll lose the one seat they had at this rate.
Posted by: Alan E Brain at October 9, 2004 at 10:10 PMResigned magistrate Mr Brian Deegan hasn't got up in Mayo.
Judging by the swings, he picked up the democrat vote and took a bit of the labor vote.
Posted by: peggy sue at October 9, 2004 at 10:10 PMGood on you, Australia. Hope we follow your lead in Nov. Now to find that punk Latham supporter at my local pub, and rub his face in it.
;)
Posted by: gimpy at October 9, 2004 at 10:13 PMAs an ex-Democrat, let me second Quentin George's laughter. Die, o shameful folly of my youth, die! The only thing almost as sweet to me as seeing Howard win is seeing Democrats lose. I wish I could bottle this day and drink it in my old age.
Posted by: David Blue at October 9, 2004 at 10:14 PMAre there any Oz websites that have streaming election coverage?
Posted by: HowardinSF at October 9, 2004 at 10:16 PMTurnip Head Crean is on talking about the "big lie" what a crock!
Posted by: Dog at October 9, 2004 at 10:16 PMThink that I'll have to go down to Mounties and see if Latham'll buy me a beer...
Posted by: rebel at October 9, 2004 at 10:16 PMThere is much weeping and nashing of teeth at Chris Shiels site.
May this be a portent of Nov 2.
Posted by: debbie at October 9, 2004 at 10:19 PMOfficial Australian Electorial Commission tally
Primary votes counted: 69.22%
Two party preferred votes counted: 60.85%
Seats needed to win government: 76
Lib/Nat: 71
ALP: 43
Ind: 3
swing to Lib/Nat of 2.01%
Posted by: AMTP10E at October 9, 2004 at 10:19 PMHowardinSF (and others)
ABC Newsradio (which is a rolling all-talk news station - although it is an ABC site it is devoid of some of the lefty bias and editorialising) has audio streaming available on their site
www.abc.net.au/newsradio
I'm listening in while looking at the Australian Electoral Commission site
www.aec.gov.au
Posted by: the_GOP_Elephant at October 9, 2004 at 10:22 PM
How good is this!
Latham has been gutted like a fish!!!
I can't wait to see tomorrows wailing and nashing of teeth in the media.
Posted by: Harry Tuttle at October 9, 2004 at 10:22 PMPixy....7th heaven.
LOOKS like Libs have half the Senate.
Historic.
We had to get another case of coldies.
I believe that Latham's concession speech will start:
I would first like to say sorry to the taxi driver.
Posted by: Astro at October 9, 2004 at 10:25 PM38 coalition seats in the senate (exactly half) is looking a real possibility.
Starting next July, the lefties are going to be sclerotic.
Posted by: 2dogs at October 9, 2004 at 10:25 PMOfficial Australian Electorial Commission tally
Primary votes counted: 70.37%
Two party preferred votes counted: 62.19%
Seats needed to win government: 76
Lib/Nat: 72
ALP: 44
Ind: 3
swing to Lib/Nat of 1.96%
Posted by: AMTP10E at October 9, 2004 at 10:28 PMYa wrong the_GOP_Elephant.
News Radio are they same Noamists that label the Islamofascist murders as "killings" and "beheadings".....
Subtle engineering but it won't fool you, eh?
The Australian mob has once again proved themselves to be a bunch of greedy materialistic racists. I am very disappointed and plan to move to a country more amenable to my enlightened views like North Korea once I sell my million-dollar mansion. I am at one with the workers and the downtrodden of the world.
Yours,
Philip Adams
Posted by: Philip Adams at October 9, 2004 at 10:33 PMOfficial Australian Electorial Commission tally
Primary votes counted: 70.89%
Two party preferred votes counted: 62.73%
Seats needed to win government: 76
Lib/Nat: 74
ALP: 45
Ind: 3
swing to Lib/Nat of 1.98%
Posted by: AMTP10E at October 9, 2004 at 10:33 PMTo our international friends, a coalition win in the senate as well is heaven. Even to win 38 seats (half) means the moonbats (greens & orphaned Dems) will almost be irrelevant to government.
Posted by: Dean McAskil at October 9, 2004 at 10:35 PMOfficial Australian Electorial Commission tally
Primary votes counted: 71.56%
Two party preferred votes counted: 63.28%
Seats needed to win government: 76
Lib/Nat: 77
ALP: 45
Ind: 3
swing to Lib/Nat of 1.97%
IT'S OFFICAL!!! HOWARD WINS
Posted by: AMTP10E at October 9, 2004 at 10:35 PMPhone call from a scrutineer in Wentworth is not painting the rosy picture that the AEC is showing. Two very large booths acording to the scrutineer and not yet phoned in may change this result.
Posted by: Astro at October 9, 2004 at 10:37 PMThat bloody Tampa's done it again!
Or was it the GST? No, maybe it was Telstra. Hmm, it can't be the left's policies or candidates. What could it be..
Posted by: Romeo at October 9, 2004 at 10:41 PMLatham has just conceded! Boo hoo!- taxi drivers of Australia beware tonight!!!!
Posted by: Rob at October 9, 2004 at 10:44 PMLatham conceding!
"A short time ago I spoke to Mr Howard and I congratulated him, his family, and his party on their election victory tonight."
Posted by: AMTP10E at October 9, 2004 at 10:44 PMMr Latham is not a happpy chappy in his concession speech (now on). Talk about a long face.
Posted by: walterplinge at October 9, 2004 at 10:45 PMLook at him - he looks in deep shock!!! Almost crying!!! Its ok Marky - dont cry. I will read you a special bedtime story tonight. Poky little puppy or something like that.
Posted by: Rob at October 9, 2004 at 10:46 PMFuck you very much and goodbye, Latham - I haven't been this happy with an ALP defeat since 96.
Posted by: Anon at October 9, 2004 at 10:47 PMWhere's Janine, she's not standing behind him tonight up on the podium...
Posted by: rebel at October 9, 2004 at 10:47 PMLatham is conceding.
Are you gonna cry? Are you gonna cry? He sure looks like he's about to. Channel 10 noted the wavering voice.
I wonder if he'll blame his defeat on the GST. Looks like Kimmy B is in trouble in Brand.
Posted by: Grand Old Elephant at October 9, 2004 at 10:50 PMPosted at Chrenkoff
Sincerest wish that what you say is correct, Howard won with more firepower behind him. WE 'Yanks' need to do our part and re 'up' Bush.
'We English speakers' must lead the world to victory over the scourge of, 'madmen' with beards.
Update: If correct at this time,
CONGRATULATIONS, Mr. Howard.
You are a fine and courageous leader. Hope we are able to return the favor to you fine and courageous Aussies, by having Bush with Four More years.
One request, send more V.B., to the U.S.
Posted by: Don at October 9, 2004 at 10:50 PMWhere's Janine, she's not standing behind him tonight up on the podium...
Probably up at emergency getting that black eye she got 'walking into a door' seen to.
Posted by: AMTP10E at October 9, 2004 at 10:50 PMI think that Mr Howard is probably on the phone to Rove right now offering to come on Tuesday night's show, that'll teach the puny ALP stooge to go off and show his true colours.
Posted by: rebel at October 9, 2004 at 10:53 PMA good ol' YEEHHAAAWWW from Texas, for ya! But boy is your party's name confusing to us Republicans! Congrats to y'all!
Posted by: DagneyT at October 9, 2004 at 10:56 PMAm I the only right winger doing the snoopy dance right now?
Posted by: Just Another Bloody Lawyer at October 9, 2004 at 10:57 PMHoward will be on soon - lets see the victory dance! Bring it on bring it on wooo hooo!!
Posted by: Rob at October 9, 2004 at 10:58 PMAm I the only right winger doing the snoopy dance right now?
Nope!
NUMFAR! DO THE DANCE OF JOY!
Posted by: AMTP10E at October 9, 2004 at 10:59 PMThe One Pod Sod has been beaten like a red-headed step-child, especially up here in Queensland. We don't take to no gonadally-challenged bogans up h'yar.
At least 38 senate seats- one more and a clear majority in both, and a clear mandate for some serious RWDB shit.
I've been deleted and banned over at Shielsies- they aren't very gracious losers, are they? Well I'm a gracious winner- I wouldn't think of suggesting that they all eat shit and die.
GOP Elephant
I hope your holidays are going well. Hello from the BA Loungue in Heathrow.
It looks my prediction wasn't far out.
All hail JoHo!!!
Posted by: Toryhere at October 9, 2004 at 11:01 PMGod bless you Austalia!!! Thank you from America!!! You are the best damn allies anybody could hope for!!!
I hope come November that we show the same wisdom in selecting our leader as you have.
Posted by: HA at October 9, 2004 at 11:03 PMHere in the People's Republic of Chicago, we're doing our sack dance! Steak for supper tonight, with a bottle of good Australian shiraz to celebrate - and to gird up our strength for November.
Posted by: Brown Line at October 9, 2004 at 11:05 PMCausely is Returned!!!!
Page:
78.92% Counted
81 of 82 polling places returned (the remaining Polling Place is probably one waaaay out in the sticks, rural electorates and all)
Causley (Nat, sitting member): 48.13%
Bell (Labor): 33.65%
Jackson (Nazis, err, Greens): 10.77%
Anderson (LFF): 2.68%
Behn (I): 1.55%
Mateer (ORP): 1.56%
Griffiths (CEC): 1.07%
Flanagan (Socialist Alliance): 0.59%
TCP:
Causley: 54.21%
Bell: 45.79%
Congratulations Aussies, from New Hampshire USA !
Woo Hoo ! This is gonna be a good day !
CNN are already spinning it in the U.S. as the victory being all about interest rates and nothing to do with Iraq.
Posted by: Sweet sweet Bundy at October 9, 2004 at 11:19 PMWay to go, Aussies!!! I love you guys so much. Congrats to the Coalition.
Posted by: Sortelli at October 9, 2004 at 11:21 PMFuck me dead re senate - time to sell telstra, probably with the help of the bible-bashers but.
when the hell is howard going to give his victory speech. i've been waiting for this since latham's ascendancy last december.
Posted by: Anon at October 9, 2004 at 11:30 PMThese two comments from over at the 'Sheila's' site go to show how good this victory really is:
I"f I was an alien trying to pick which "club" to join, just on the basis of the commentary on this blog and others, it would be bloody easy. The left/Labor/Green side of politics clearly has the vast majority of intelligent, thoughtful, caring, and articulate people supporting it"
"This election was stolen. Simple as that. Count every vote, they say, but they don't mean every IDIOT'S vote.
God help Aborigines, migrants, the enviroment, Iraq's freedom fighters and trees in Tasmania. Its just too sad. I cry as I write."
By the way, the asia -pacific ABC news has just come on here in HK, NO mention of the election as the laed story, its about Bush Versus Kerry!!!!!!
Enjoy it my children, enjoy.
Posted by: nic at October 9, 2004 at 11:31 PMMy god - Howard's smile couldn't get any bigger. I think he is splitting at the ears!!! Such a contrast to poor Latham. Winners are grinners was never truer as tonight!
Posted by: Rob at October 9, 2004 at 11:33 PMBloody brilliant!
Any chance of shipping Johnny Howard up here for a few months to ginger up our bloody useless Tory party? No?
Well, anyway - enjoy...enjoy...enjoy...
Posted by: Yorkshire Tyke at October 9, 2004 at 11:33 PMWhat a contrast - I think that Howard is almost crying trying to hold back the urge to just jump up and down going woo hoo! woo hoo! - up yours Latham and your big "stare down" moment this week!!!
Posted by: Rob at October 9, 2004 at 11:38 PM"I"f I was an alien trying to pick which "club" to join, just on the basis of the commentary on this blog and others, it would be bloody easy."
LOL!!!! Thanks, nic.
Posted by: Sortelli at October 9, 2004 at 11:38 PMAbsolutely brilliant news. I am ecstatic here in London. I voted last week and I have been nervous all day. Congrats to Howard and the Coalition.
Now for Bush to win!
Posted by: TOT at October 9, 2004 at 11:38 PM"Any chance of shipping Johnny Howard up here for a few months to ginger up our bloody useless Tory party? No?"
Bloody hell no!!!
Though, if you'd give us Blair, we'd have a slightly less useless, depraved Labor Party
Posted by: Sheriff at October 9, 2004 at 11:41 PMWhat a candidate with no clear message on terror and a penchant for insulting old allies losses? Please tell me this is a preview of Nov. 2nd in the US.
Good job Aussies! Congrats on a great win for Mr. Howard and Western Civilization.
Posted by: From_Florida_USA at October 9, 2004 at 11:47 PMAll right! One of the good guys won.
Congrats to John Howard and his party. and congrats to the Aussies.
But not only is this a win for Australia, this is also a win for the coalition countries and their fight against the Islamofascists.
And this helps George Bush too in his re-election campaign, believe it or not.
(After losing the first debate, the Bush team recovered after Cheney trounced Edwards. Then Bush beat Kerry in their second debate, evenning up the score. Now this from Australia.)
Now if we can make bush and blair (next year) win their re-election, that would be sweet.
Howard sounds like a true statesman. What a contrast to Latham and all those ALP wanker (a.k.a. Beazley), who were forever crapping on about "the big lie" and their "positive message".
Positive message, my arse! Here in Darwin, formerly the most marginal electorate, David Tollner has romped it in for the Libs! -- What a great day this has been!
Posted by: JPB at October 9, 2004 at 11:49 PMNow if the Bush people are smart, they would celebrate John Howard's victory like it was a victory for the Bush campaign.
Embrace the Howard victory, Karl Rove. DO IT NOW! Get the GOP media machine churning!
Posted by: john marzan at October 9, 2004 at 11:52 PMJust tell Family First you will spend the Telstra dollars on families and their vote is in the bag.
Posted by: drscroogemcduck at October 9, 2004 at 11:53 PMJPB, you said it!
Crean was intolerable, more so than usual!
Posted by: Sheriff at October 9, 2004 at 11:53 PMWhat can I say? Woo Hoo!!!!!!!!!! Can't wait for the senate result
Posted by: Claire at October 9, 2004 at 11:56 PMMinimum of 38 seats, possibly one extra. If not 1 senator from Family First in Victoria will make the nut. Democrats gone completely, Bob Brown relegated to the irrelevence he so richly deserves. Better start looking for jobs, welfare sponges, and Doug Cameron and other ACTU thugs had better invest in kevlar undies. This makes up for the speed camera ticket I got last week.
Posted by: Habib at October 9, 2004 at 11:59 PMWay to go, Oz!
I'm hoping Australia and Afghanistan are excellent warmups for us here in the US next month.
Posted by: Dean Douthat at October 10, 2004 at 12:01 AMAnd the Senate's looking better and better!
-Fuck, I can't wait to read the commentary by Philip Adams and Kingston next week! :-p
What a laugh!
Posted by: JPB at October 10, 2004 at 12:03 AM