August 01, 2004

BOUNCELESS

Well, at least he didn't go backwards:

Coming out of the Democratic National Convention in Boston, Sen. John Kerry now holds a seven-point lead over President George W. Bush in a three-way race with independent Ralph Nader, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll. Three weeks ago, Kerry's lead was three points.

Kerry's four-point bounce is the smallest in the history of the NEWSWEEK poll.

Half the poll was taken before Kerry's "Help Is On The Way" speech, which may actually inflate this bounce a little. By the way, if John Kerry is the guy America turns to for "help", what are America's problems? Can't tie a reef knot? Bicycle keeps falling over? Wife nuts?

Posted by Tim Blair at August 1, 2004 07:10 AM
Comments

This is another meaningless poll of adults (not registered or likely voters). I wouldn't be surprised if Newsweek over-polled Democrats again.

Posted by: sam at August 1, 2004 at 07:16 AM

"Help is on the way" is a reassuring little something Kerry and Kerry-Heinz hear a lot of when they ring for it.

Posted by: c at August 1, 2004 at 07:34 AM

"Help is on the way" Kerry will provide a staff of servants for every American voter. See "Proposals of the DNC Fair Trade Program with Guatemala", if you don't believe this.

Posted by: limousine leftist at August 1, 2004 at 07:47 AM

After his amazing convention, he and his groupies doing the bus across America thing, stopped in a Wendy's for lunch and photo op. A bunch of Marines were there. They basically gave the schmuck the cold shoulder and once he and the breck girl left told the reporters they are all disgusted by him, plan on gleefully voting for Bush and estimated that there isn't a handful of servicemen and women that wd vote for Senator Haircut.

He is toast.

Posted by: hen at August 1, 2004 at 07:51 AM

After last week, Kerry might be reconsidering the rich and crazy combination and go back to just rich.

Posted by: Andy Freeman at August 1, 2004 at 07:58 AM

Tim, go and see a musical.

Posted by: Jonny at August 1, 2004 at 07:58 AM

Hey now, let's not forget the Kerry campaign's inspirational new Theme Song.

Posted by: Spiny Norman at August 1, 2004 at 11:01 AM

I'd have gone with ``Help is en route.'' It sounds more continental. ``Help is in the pipeline'' is wonkish, and ``Help is in the wind'' has bad associations.

Posted by: Ron Hardin at August 1, 2004 at 11:21 AM

If your hamster ever needs CPR, John Kerry will be there!

Posted by: EvilPundit at August 1, 2004 at 11:24 AM

"...what are America's problems? Can't tie a reef knot? Bicycle keeps falling over? Wife nuts?"

I like those problems more than what many DNC speakers stated as problems. I gagged each time I was told that one of the US' problems is to solve how to become "less feared and more liked" in the international community.

I guess many of them must like it up the rear. They want us to just bend over and take whatever is dished out if we don't receive permission from the UN or the EU to act.

It was great how those speakers kept on ignoring the coalition countries. Way to go guys, insult our allies!! Suck up to the UN and the EU countries who wouldn't mind seeing the US attacked again as long as they could make money and/or feel 'influential'.

If I have to make I choice, I vote for being feared. If we're feared we're more likely to be left alone. Actually, if the US was viewed as bat-shit crazy and willing to use all our military at the drop of a hat, wouldn't bother me that much. (As long as it was REALLY believed, not just a slogan.)

The last thing I want is to see my president kissing up to the money (and power) sucking vampires in the UN and their partners in the EU.

People who cause more problems in the world than they solve because they are either dimwitted or selfish (or both) and never saw a problem they couldn't profit from. (Profit does not always mean increasing money.)

Posted by: Chris Josephson at August 1, 2004 at 11:29 AM

Ms Heinz-Kerry points to a picture of a bowl of chili and then asks the cashier what it is! Yes, two Americas, indeed. Hey, a "winter soldier" can salute inside, outside, covered or uncovered especially at an upside down American flag. Get with the program!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: YoJimbo at August 1, 2004 at 11:58 AM

I'll be suprised if Kerry doesn't actually move backwards. I'm waiting for more polls.

Posted by: aaron at August 1, 2004 at 12:26 PM

"Help is on the way." Typical nanny-statism.

Check out John Kerry as nanny Mary Poppins.

Posted by: John Lanius at August 1, 2004 at 12:40 PM

Chris Josephson Remember the old Monty Python "Mr. Neutron" sketch:

General: How scared of us are they!
Aide: Well, we don't have any hard numbers yet, but they're really scared, sir!
General: O god. I love it when they're scared...

Posted by: richard mcenroe at August 1, 2004 at 02:32 PM

The Bush reelection contract at Tradesports was bid at 50.5 before Kerry's speech. It is just now at 52.2. So the Tradesports speculators are giving Bush a slightly better chance to win now then before the speech.

Posted by: Tim Shell at August 1, 2004 at 02:37 PM

Tim - we're not voting for Kerry because HELP is on the way - we're voting for Kerry because HELP & HOPE are on the way. Only problem is, we voted for HELP & HOPE before we voted against it. I felt embarrassed for John Kerry for saluting like a jackass, before I didn't feel embarrassed for him. He sweats more than Rosie O'Donnell trying to get in a size 12.

When I heard the TV announcers trying to convince us that this was a great speech by a great orator - I knew then - they had sunk lower than I thought possible.

After listening to him say 'we're the optimists' - I can't reconcile how 'optimists' can say - when we're respected and strong again THEN we'll say to terrorists - we will win and you will lose! THAT was powerful - followed up a day later by "I want OBL tried in a U.S. court.' Way to scare the terrorists. Slap'em with a court date and they will STOP immediately. At least we can feel better knowing he'll 'respond quickly to any attack' - whew. I feel better. It's a shame GWB is so focused on responding BEFORE any attack. What a weiner.

Posted by: Kathleen at August 1, 2004 at 03:16 PM

I subscribed to Newsweek for twenty years (force of habit mostly) before dropping them two years ago because of the relentless Bush bashing.

My favorite example of their insular Manhattan view was in 1991 when the NY Rangers finally won the Stanley Cup. Newsweek exhulted that the NHL (ice hockey) would be the NBA (basketball) of the '90's.

The Rangers sank back into mediocrity the next season, Newsweek writers stopped going to games and they seldom mentioned hockey again.

Moral: If it ain't happening in NY, it ain't happening for Newsweek.

They're in for a big surprise in November. Kerry ain't the Clinton of '04!

Posted by: JDB at August 1, 2004 at 03:17 PM

They're in for a big surprise in November.

I bet we'll see a reprise of Reagan-era "I have no idea how he won, I don't know anybody who voted for him!" rhetoric from Newsweek et al.

Posted by: PW at August 1, 2004 at 04:03 PM

Actually, I understand the poll is *gasp* biased, and may not mean anything at all.

Posted by: Fresh Air at August 1, 2004 at 04:03 PM

"Wife nuts"? I prefer beer nuts, myself..

Posted by: urthshu at August 1, 2004 at 04:27 PM

John Lanius - interesting that Mary Poppins should come into it; the movie version is, I agree, gag-worthy nanny-statism at its finest. The books, though, are something else.

Book-Mary is supremely, fiercely competent. She looks like (and is treated like) an ordinary nanny, not the highest of positions. However, she knows a hell of a lot more than she lets on. The children she tends to routinely get themselves into supernatural scrapes which involve their being either potentially killed or lost forever; she extricates them without even seeming to make an effort. Their parents never even have a clue that she's consistently saving their family from being horrendously broken apart.

Last but not least; she's not sweet. Not even close. When she says jump, the kids jump. She routinely berates them for misbehaving, and self-esteem boosting is not on her menu. She's there to keep the kids and line and keep them from being killed. Period. And she does it very nicely, without any boasting (well, she snarks a bit about her own perfections, but not in the hearing of her employers).

Hey, I'd take her over Kerry any day. Cold, competent, and not given to warming over past victories. What's not to like?

Posted by: Sonetka at August 1, 2004 at 05:33 PM

Didja' notice how a 5 point lead in one area for Bush was spun as:

They also just barely prefer Bush to Kerry (48 percent to 43 percent) on handling terror and homeland security...

while a 5 point lead for Kerry in another was:

Kerry gets higher ratings as someone who can be trusted “to make the right decisions during an international crisis” (53 percent Kerry versus 48 percent Bush). blockquote>

Biased? Nah!!!!

Posted by: Reid at August 1, 2004 at 05:53 PM

Oops. Close blockquote.

Posted by: Reid at August 1, 2004 at 05:53 PM

Hey Guys,

I was just reading an article about Kerry. Did you know he was in vietnam?

Posted by: DLW at August 1, 2004 at 07:49 PM

richard mcenroe:

Thanks for the Monty Python reminder! Yea, I was thinking along those lines.

I got the feeling some of the speakers had no sense of self unless affirmed by many others. Why is it so important to be liked by everyone? Does it make them feel insecure not to be liked by one and all? What will they sacrifice for world approval?

I was wondering how those "need to be liked" snippets were going to be received in other countries. I imagined some just smiled and thought the US was finally going to 'listen to reason' and come crawling for forgiveness.

Meanwhile countries we're partnered with are totally ignored. It's as if they don't exist. (Unilateral again.) Bunch of morons who wrote, and/or approved, those speeches should be ashamed.

Posted by: Chris Josephson at August 1, 2004 at 08:37 PM

Hmmm.

I wouldn't be so worried if the bugger would come on out and actually make a stand somewhere on something!

Jesus H. Christ!

How does the man pee? By dancing around the urinal?

Posted by: ed at August 1, 2004 at 09:22 PM

Read this and weep openly; it's written by Ronald Regean's son. Only those on the right who don't have enough grey matter to know any better (most of Tim's fanbase falls into this category unfortunately) want GWB to have a second term.

Posted by: Jimbo Jones at August 1, 2004 at 09:49 PM

You're using something written by Ron Reagan Jr. as a reference? You've got to be kidding me. Couldn't find anything quotable by Michael Moore or Terry McAuliffe?

Posted by: PW at August 1, 2004 at 10:09 PM

'Jimbo Jones', you are totally an idiot and so is he who you quote:

Fortunately, we still live in a democratic republic.

Excuse me - Ronald Reagan's son said 'fortunately' in a sentence about living in a democratic republic?


Posted by: ilibcc at August 1, 2004 at 10:22 PM

By the way, if John Kerry is the guy America turns to for "help", what are America's problems?

Sleep deprivation.

Posted by: Quentin George at August 1, 2004 at 10:24 PM

Well Jimbo the problem for you is that those allegedly lacking in grey matter, will come this November, include a majority of the elctoral college. I cannot wait until the end of this year. My big bet is that it will be Howard Bush both back for new terms. The left has gone out too hard too early.

Posted by: Just Another Bloody Lawyer at August 1, 2004 at 10:24 PM

Jimbo, Ron Reagan Jr. didn't actually vote for his father, either.

Maybe you should ask Michael Reagan's opinion...

Posted by: Quentin George at August 1, 2004 at 10:25 PM

Michael Reagan:

I'm getting a little tired of the media's insistence on reporting that the Reagan "family" is in favor of stem cell research, when the truth is that two members of the family have been long time foes of this process of manufacturing human beings--my dad, Ronald Reagan during his lifetime, and me.
The media should keep in mind that we are also members of the Reagan "family" and my father, as do I, opposed the creation of human embryos for the sole purpose of using their stem cells as possible medical cures.

Though I'd never thought I'd see the day where the left, after years of deriding GWB because of "issues" with his father, now takes another person with "issues" with their father, and turns it in to Moses coming down from Sinai with the Words of God.

Posted by: Quentin George at August 1, 2004 at 10:32 PM

Hey Tim

This blog is almost as asinine (Bush voters use a dictionary if know where to find one) as your magazine column. Lucky the Australian press owners dote on right wing journos who make a quid by barking at the left.

You will always have a job if you keep this up!

Posted by: observer at August 1, 2004 at 11:07 PM

Wow, two trolls who insinuate that all Bush voters are morons in under two hours. The quality of "dissent" keeps dropping and dropping...must be because this is a Kerry-themed thread, I guess. Even the trolling community apparently can't be bothered to send more than their B team...

Posted by: PW at August 1, 2004 at 11:26 PM
Half the poll was taken before Kerry's "Help Is On The Way" speech, which may actually inflate this bounce a little

From the Newsweek poll press release:

In the two-way heat in the July 8-9 Newsweek Poll, Kerry led Bush by six points, 51 to 45 percent. In the three-way heat from that week, Kerry led Bush by 3 points, 47 to 44 percent, and Nader received 3 percent of the vote, the poll shows. Therefore, coming out of the final two days of the Democratic National Convention, the poll shows a four-point margin "bounce" in the three- way heat and a two-point margin "bounce" in the two-way heat.

Why is the poll measued "coming out of the last two days" of the convention? Why not wait until the convention has finished (or at least, until after Kerry's speech) before measuring the bounce from that convention? Is this the way polling of conventions has been done in the past?

The next paragraph from Newsweek says:

In interviews on Thursday, July 29-before the Kerry nomination acceptance speech-Kerry/Edwards received the support of 47 percent of registered voters, Bush/Cheney 45 percent and Nader/Camejo 2 percent, according to the Newsweek Poll. In Friday interviews after the speech, Kerry/Edwards received 50 percent, Bush/Cheney 40 percent and Nader/Camejo 3 percent. In the two-way race, in interviews on July 29, Kerry/Edwards received 49 percent and Bush/Cheney 47 percent. On July 30, Kerry/Edwards got 54 percent and Bush/Cheney 41 percent, the poll shows.

So the Friday poll (after the convention, or at least, after Kerry's speech) showed Kerry had a 10 point lead over Bush in the 3-way poll (a bounce of 7 points from the July 8-9 poll), and a 13 point lead in the 2-way poll (a bounce of 7 points from the July 8-9 poll).

Shouldn't that be the reported figure for the effect of the convention?

Posted by: Jethro at August 1, 2004 at 11:33 PM

Shouldn't that be the reported figure for the effect of the convention?

The margin of error for the one-day polling after Kerry's speech is larger than for the aggregate two-day results (about 4.5% vs. 3%), which may be why they didn't report the post-speech poll results on their own yet. But yeah, releasing a news report based on a poll where two groups of people responded under such different circumstances is a bit weird... I'm sure we'll see plenty more polls on Monday though.

Posted by: PW at August 1, 2004 at 11:45 PM

JDB - While i don't disagree with you in what you said, the Rangers won the cup in 1994, not 1991. I only correct you due to the fact that being 10 yrs removed from having won the cup is better then 13.

Posted by: hen at August 1, 2004 at 11:53 PM

Punish the employed! How dare they do anything for themselves, and not sit around moaning with us!

Posted by: Joe at August 2, 2004 at 12:04 AM

You know, even if I could find no other reason to vote for Bush (and there is a lot that he's done that I'm not thrilled about), it all comes down to this, for me, at least.

There have been no terror attacks on US soil by foreign nationals since September 11, 2001.

When Kerry, or, hell, Nader, can offer a solution that isn't mere rhetoric that is better than the one Bush is currently using, they'll have my vote. I really think this is what it will come down to in November for the majority of voters, as well.

Posted by: david at August 2, 2004 at 12:39 AM

Is this really the quality of the opposition's response: "You're all stupid! And you're mean!" Good grief, Kerry's supporters are all four years old.

Posted by: Andrea Harris at August 2, 2004 at 12:57 AM

Andrea, these are the people who brought us the pants-on-fire-mobile.

Posted by: Pixy Misa at August 2, 2004 at 01:23 AM

I work in downtwon DC - we STILL see these clowns passing out leaflets. Some of them are the same lamers pulling for different causes every few weeks.
The REALLY are adolescents, even the boomers.

Some have adapted to modern life though, and are often seen wearing shoes.

Posted by: Joe at August 2, 2004 at 01:31 AM

The election will come down to one theme. Do we all, really, want to die in the name of making a few malcontent whiners happy.

Posted by: JohnFNWayne at August 2, 2004 at 01:38 AM

Observer,

Who needs a dictionary when leftist lexicon is so easy? "Asinine" is German for one who denies being an ass. And it comes right after the word "asaneight", as in the CIA asaneight JFK for his Bay of Pigs fiasco and Marilyn Monroe for her JFK imbroglio. "JFK" use to mean John Fitzgerald, but these days it's an acronym for Jerky Faux Kennedy.

Posted by: arrowdite at August 2, 2004 at 01:39 AM

The Rasmussen poll has a four point lead for the "winter soldier" with two thirds of the polling coming post convention. Rasmussen also does all of the state stuff on their site along with an electoral count. You can get it via realclearpolitics along with most of the other major polls. As an aside, YoJimbo is not the Jimbo Jones that has been posting!

Posted by: YoJimbo at August 2, 2004 at 02:43 AM

CauseHeads.

"Meat Tosser!"

Posted by: aaron at August 2, 2004 at 02:44 AM

Earth to tall bitch!

Heh heh. Best. Movie. Ever.

Posted by: Andrea Harris at August 2, 2004 at 03:10 AM

Chris Josephson, PW Forget Monty Python. The best reference for this quality of troll is Ed Wood's Plan 9 From Outer Space...

Eros: "Stronger." You see? You see? Your stupid minds! Stupid! Stupid!

Posted by: richard mcenroe at August 2, 2004 at 03:59 AM

Does it not seem strange that Kerry is using Bush lines and ideas a lot? I seem to remember George Bush promising that help was on the way during his first campaign. Its really odd to me that Kerry is using the same line.

Posted by: pbird at August 2, 2004 at 04:35 AM

PBIRD. I hope that was used in a sarcastic context. If your on movie references. "Of all the burger joints in all the towns in all the world, these clowns had to walk into ours"

Posted by: YoJimbo at August 2, 2004 at 04:57 AM

david:

"There have been no terror attacks on US soil by foreign nationals since September 11, 2001."

One 'dire consequence' of going into Iraq that was predicted was a bloodbath on US streets. This is one of many predictions that never materialized.

I am prepared, however, for some sort of terrorist action to take place as we get closer to the elections. (Especially if Kerry isn't doing that well in the polls.) I expect this action to be tried to intimidate/blackmail voters into supporting Kerry.

Posted by: Chris Josephson at August 2, 2004 at 05:20 AM

Drudge is reporting that the new Gallup poll has Bush UP amongst registered voters, 50-47 (but within the margin of error). Still...days after the Dem convention and Kerry can't even get a lead outside the MOE?
I'm with PW - I think we could end up having a big Reagan-esque "November Surprise".

Posted by: Ricky D at August 2, 2004 at 05:47 AM

Just raised the threat level for DC, the NYSE, Citigroup in NY, and Prudential in NJ.

Posted by: aaron at August 2, 2004 at 05:55 AM

Hen,

You are correct. It was '94 not '91. But be gentle; I'm a Chicago Blackhawks fan so what do I know about hockey?

Posted by: JDB at August 2, 2004 at 06:26 AM

My name is John Kerry, and I'm a big piece of doody!!!

Posted by: Mike W. at August 2, 2004 at 06:54 AM

In the first comment of this thread, I said that the Newsweek poll was meaningless because it surveyed adults instead of registered or likely voters. I also wondered if the poll was based on oversampling of Democrats. Well, here's the actual breakdown of the sample:

Democrats 38.5%
Republicans 30%
Ind. 31.5%

In a country where the approximate voter registration is R33%, D33% and I33%, this kind of polling is deliberately malicious, though not surprising, coming from the source. Reminds me of the LA Times poll from a few weeks ago, where their sample was D43%-R28%, giving Kerry a 7 point lead.

Posted by: sam at August 2, 2004 at 06:54 AM

Even the trolling community apparently can't be bothered to send more than their B team...

LOL. Priceless.

Posted by: Quentin George at August 2, 2004 at 08:28 AM

Gallup actually has Kerdwards losing about 5pts today in a backwards bounce. Not suprising when even Dowd is making fun of you. Only really bad thing inpolitics is when people start to think you are a joke. J Danford Edwards is next...

Posted by: JoJo at August 2, 2004 at 10:20 AM

Kerry should have bounced a bit higher, given his natty NASA bunny suit.

Posted by: GQ at August 2, 2004 at 11:19 AM

Seems Kerry is about where Dole was in the 1st week of August....at which point the press had written off his chances...


CNN/USA TODAY/GALLUP POLL
August 11, 1996

Registered Voters' Presidential Choice

Now August 5-7

Clinton 53% 58%
Dole 44 35

Posted by: JoJo at August 2, 2004 at 04:02 PM

Kerry is in trouble. Mondale pulled to within 2 points of Reagan, and Dukakis grabbed a 17 point lead after their respective conventions. No one really likes Kerry, and if he falls too far behind, the leftist press will turn on him, and when that happens....

Whatever Abu Ghraib crap Kerry was saving is going to have to be played a lot sooner than he hoped, and it's questionable as to whether the undecideds will blame Bush.

Posted by: Mark at August 2, 2004 at 06:04 PM